QMPE: Estimating Lognormal, Wald, and Weibull RT distributions with a parameter-dependent lower bound

We describe and test quantile maximum probability estimator (QMPE), an open-source ANSI Fortran 90 program for response time distribution estimation.¹ QMPE enables users to estimate parameters for the ex-Gaussian and Gumbel (1958) distributions, along with three “shifted” distributions (i.e., distributions with a parameter-dependent lower bound): the Lognormal, Wald, and Weibull distributions. Estimation can be performed using either the standard continuous maximum likelihood (CML) method or quantile maximum probability (QMP; Heathcote & Brown, in press). We review the properties of each distribution and the theoretical evidence showing that CML estimates fail for some cases with shifted distributions, whereas QMP estimates do not. In cases in which CML does not fail, a Monte Carlo investigation showed that QMP estimates were usually as good, and in some cases better, than CML estimates. However, the Monte Carlo study also uncovered problems that can occur with both CML and QMP estimates, particularly when samples are small and skew is low, highlighting the difficulties of estimating distributions with parameter-dependent lower bounds.     

Do positive illusions predict overconfidence in judgment? A test using interval production and probability evaluation measures of miscalibration

We address the question as to whether judgmental overconfidence, as assessed by probability miscalibration, is related to positive illusions about the self. We first demonstrate that judgmental overconfidence measured with interval production procedures can be considered a trait, due to correlations observed in miscalibration scores in two sets of general‐knowledge questions of varying difficulty administered at different times. In addition, the hard‐easy effect operated in different ways on overprecision and self‐placement of one's performance relative to others: The more difficult the calibration task, the greater the over precision but the greater the under placement of one's performance. Finally, there was no evidence that miscalibration was related to dispositional optimism and self‐efficacy. A second study extended these results by including further measures of disposition to experience positive illusions such as unrealistic optimism, a general tendency to consider oneself “better‐than‐average,” and two indexes of dispositional perception of control. The positive illusion measures showed considerable inter‐correlations, but did not correlate with miscalibration on the interval production task, and correlated negatively with optimism concerning societal risks. A final study replicated this pattern of findings, but showed that disposition to positive illusions did predict miscalibration on the same questions measured with a probability evaluation technique. Our research demonstrates that “overconfidence” is not a unitary construct, but a series of overlapping ones. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of predatory threat on fear extinction in Lewis rats

Humans with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) are deficient at extinguishing conditioned fear responses. A study of identical twins concluded that this extinction deficit does not predate trauma but develops as a result of trauma. The present study tested whether the Lewis rat model of PTSD reproduces these features of the human syndrome. Lewis rats were subjected to classical auditory fear conditioning before or after exposure to a predatory threat that mimics a type of traumatic stress that leads to PTSD in humans. Exploratory behavior on the elevated plus maze 1 wk after predatory threat exposure was used to distinguish resilient vs. PTSD-like rats. Properties of extinction varied depending on whether fear conditioning and extinction occurred before or after predatory threat. When fear conditioning was carried out after predatory threat, PTSD-like rats showed a marked extinction deficit compared with resilient rats. In contrast, no differences were seen between resilient and PTSD-like rats when fear conditioning and extinction occurred prior to predatory threat. These findings in Lewis rats closely match the results seen in humans with PTSD, thereby suggesting that studies comparing neuronal interactions in resilient vs. at-risk Lewis rats might shed light on the causes and pathophysiology of human PTSD.Following a severe traumatic event, some individuals manifest a syndrome, known as post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), characterized by repeated painful recollection of the trauma, avoidance of trauma reminders, intrusive thoughts, startle, hyperarousal, and disturbed sleep. Lifetime prevalence of PTSD ranges from 1.4% to 11.2% in representative samples (Afifi et al. 2010). Review of heritability studies indicate that there is a significant genetic component to PTSD (Nugent et al. 2008) as shared genes explain approximately 25%–38% of variability in PTSD symptom clusters and total symptoms (Afifi et al. 2010). Moreover, PTSD heritability coincides with that of other psychiatric conditions such as generalized anxiety, panic disorder, and depression (Chantarujikapong et al. 2001; Fu et al. 2007), suggesting that these disorders gain expression through common biological pathways.Although our understanding of PTSD has improved recently, we still have a limited grasp of the factors that predispose some to be at risk for PTSD, as well as those contributing to PTSD expression following trauma. In part, this situation results from the ethical limitations associated with human studies. For example, humans cannot be randomly assigned to trauma, and, importantly, the invasive techniques required to study the pathophysiology of PTSD can be used only in animals. Thus, a promising approach toward understanding the underlying pathophysiology of PTSD would be to study the disease in a valid animal model of the human syndrome.Fortunately, much work has already been performed to define an animal model of PTSD that reproduces the salient features of the human syndrome (see Adamec et al. 2006; Cohen et al. 2006a; Siegmund and Wotjak 2006). The most promising research has focused on the impact of exposing rodents to species-relevant threatening stimuli that mimic the kind of life-and-death circumstances that precipitates PTSD in humans. Indeed, rodents exposed to predators or their odor develop long-lasting (3 wk or more) manifestations of anxiety as seen in a variety of behavioral assays including the elevated plus maze (EPM), social interaction test, and acoustic startle (Adamec and Shallow 1993; Blanchard et al. 2003; Adamec et al. 2006). The inherent strength of this species-relevant stimulus was demonstrated in studies where predator odor served as an unconditioned stimulus to support cued or contextual fear conditioning (Blanchard et al. 2001; McGregor et al. 2002). As is the case with human PTSD, differential vulnerability to predatory threat was also observed in rodents. In one study, for instance, the propensity of different strains of rats to develop extreme behavioral manifestations of anxiety (EBMAs) as a result of predatory threat has been characterized, revealing that a much higher proportion (50%) of Lewis rats (an inbred strain) develops EBMAs as a result of an intense predatory threat compared with 10% of Fisher rats and 20% of Sprague–Dawley rats (Cohen et al. 2006b).Although these results are promising, it remains unclear whether Lewis rats also exhibit traits that parallel the pathophysiology of human PTSD. One such factor, thought to play a particularly critical role in the persistence of PTSD, is a compromised ability to extinguish fear memories (for review, see Quirk and Mueller 2008). Two main lines of evidence support this notion. First, in functional imaging studies, the brain structures that normally support fear expression and extinction (for review, see Pape and Pare 2010) show abnormal activity patterns in PTSD (Rauch et al. 2006; Shin et al. 2006; Bremner et al. 2008; Milad et al. 2009). Second, several studies have reported that individuals with PTSD are deficient at extinguishing classically conditioned fear responses (Orr et al. 2000; Peri et al. 2000; Blechert et al. 2007; Milad et al. 2008, 2009). Of particular interest, a study of identical twins discordant for trauma exposure has revealed that this extinction deficit was not a pre-existing condition but developed as a result of trauma (Milad et al. 2008). Given the possibility that an inability to extinguish fear might contribute to the maintenance of PTSD, we therefore tested whether Lewis rats reproduced the properties of extinction seen in human PTSD.     

Spatial localization of touch in the first year of life: early influence of a visual spatial code and the development of remapping across changes in limb position

Two experiments investigated infants' ability to localize tactile sensations in peripersonal space. Infants aged 10 months (Experiment 1) and 6.5 months (Experiment 2) were presented with vibrotactile stimuli unpredictably to either hand while they adopted either a crossed- or uncrossed-hands posture. At 6.5 months, infants' responses were predominantly manual, whereas at 10 months, visual orienting behavior was more evident. Analyses of the direction of the responses indicated that (a) both age groups were able to locate tactile stimuli, (b) the ability to remap visual and manual responses to tactile stimuli across postural changes develops between 6.5 and 10 months of age, and (c) the 6.5-month-olds were biased to respond manually in the direction appropriate to the more familiar uncrossed-hands posture across both postures. The authors argue that there is an early visual influence on tactile spatial perception and suggest that the ability to remap visual and manual directional responses across changes in posture develops between 6.5 and 10 months, most likely because of the experience of crossing the midline gained during this period.     

The developmental course of lexical tone perception in the first year of life

Perceptual reorganisation of infants' speech perception has been found from 6 months for consonants and earlier for vowels. Recently, similar reorganisation has been found for lexical tone between 6 and 9 months of age. Given that there is a close relationship between vowels and tones, this study investigates whether the perceptual reorganisation for tone begins earlier than 6 months. Non-tone language English and French infants were tested with the Thai low vs. rising lexical tone contrast, using the stimulus alternating preference procedure. Four- and 6-month-old infants discriminated the lexical tones, and there was no decline in discrimination performance across these ages. However, 9-month-olds failed to discriminate the lexical tones. This particular pattern of decline in nonnative tone discrimination over age indicates that perceptual reorganisation for tone does not parallel the developmentally prior decline observed in vowel perception. The findings converge with previous developmental cross-language findings on tone perception in English-language infants [Mattock, K., & Burnham, D. (2006). Chinese and English infants' tone perception: Evidence for perceptual reorganization. Infancy, 10(3)], and extend them by showing similar perceptual reorganisation for non-tone language infants learning rhythmically different non-tone languages (English and French).     

Impact of language on development of auditory-visual speech perception

The McGurk effect paradigm was used to examine the developmental onset of inter-language differences between Japanese and English in auditory-visual speech perception. Participants were asked to identify syllables in audiovisual (with congruent or discrepant auditory and visual components), audio-only, and video-only presentations at various signal-to-noise levels. In Experiment 1 with two groups of adults, native speakers of Japanese and native speakers of English, the results on both percent visually influenced responses and reaction time supported previous reports of a weaker visual influence for Japanese participants. In Experiment 2, an additional three age groups (6, 8, and 11 years) in each language group were tested. The results showed that the degree of visual influence was low and equivalent for Japanese and English language 6-year-olds, and increased over age for English language participants, especially between 6 and 8 years, but remained the same for Japanese participants. This may be related to the fact that English language adults and older children processed visual speech information relatively faster than auditory information whereas no such inter-modal differences were found in the Japanese participants' reaction times.     

Quantifying continuous exercise using the ratio of work completed to endurance limit associated with exercise-induced delayed-onset muscle soreness

This study quantified training load of various exercises using a novel method developed by the authors and based on the ratio of work completed: endurance limit, associated with exercise-induced delayed-onset muscle soreness. Exercises were also quantified using the Training Impulse method. 8 runners performed a marathon and a 60-min. run at marathon velocity, and 9 rowers performed two maximal exercises (500 m and 2000 m) on a rowing ergometer. To examine the validity of the two methods, the relationships between the training loads provided by the Training Impulse and the Authors' methods, the direct comparison of the tasks performed, and the usability of the Authors' method components in regular training were assessed. Authors' method was significantly related to Training Impulse method (r = .83, p < .05) and was higher for running (r = .94, p < .05) but none was observed for rowing. In both methods, the marathon run resulted in high training load compared with the other tasks. When compared with the 60-min. run, the training load of the 2000-m row was slightly higher for the Authors' method, but lower for Training Impulse method. In the Authors' method, the delayed-onset muscle soreness component discriminates the marathon from the other tasks whereas the ration of work completed: endurance limit differentiates the 60-min. run from the 2000-m row. The duration component of the Training Impulse method could lead to overestimation of the training load of prolonged exercises compared with high intensity exercise. The relationship between the Training Impulse and the Authors' methods for prolonged exercises, the training load provided for each task, and the components of the Authors' method supported the validity of this new tool to describe exercise-induced fatigue.