Metacognitive Experiences and Human Judgment: The Case of Hindsight Bias and Its Debiasing

ABSTRACT— Theories of judgment have emphasized the influence of what comes to mind—the content of people's thoughts. But recent research shows that metacognitive experiences accompanying thinking, like a sense of the ease or difficulty with which information comes to mind, qualify the conclusions that people derive from thought content. The case of hindsight bias and attempts to remove that bias (debiasing) illustrate this. After an event outcome is known, people display hindsight bias by exaggerating its inevitability, believing they "knew it all along." The magnitude of hindsight bias varies with the ease or difficulty that known or alternative outcomes come to mind; the usually observed hindsight bias may even reverse when outcomes are difficult to bring to mind or increase when alternatives are difficult to bring to mind. Implications of metacognitive experiences can extend to other biases and their debiasing, as well as to how people make sense of the past more generally.     

Psychoonkologie

Changes in the spectrum of illnesses have led to a predominance of chronic diseases, including oncological disorders, that are connected with substantial mental health problems. The needs of people with cancer are increasingly attracting the attention of psychosocial and psychosomatic disciplines as far as patient-oriented health care research and counselling practice are concerned. Psychosocial work in oncology appears to be becoming increasingly professionalized. Theories of the psychosocial origin of cancer are gradually losing ground in the scientific community, giving way to a rational attitude towards oncological diseases that counters the stigma of cancer. At the same time, the demand for psycho-oncological services is becoming more important if we take into account the high rate of psychiatric co-morbidity and the fact that these patients are poorly diagnosed and inadequately treated. This is all the more regrettable in that a broad range of evidence-based interventions are available which are gradually being implemented in the guidelines of rehabilitation facilities and oncological centres of excellence. The transfer of knowledge in the everyday care of cancer patients, however, has yet not been accomplished.     

Debiasing the hindsight bias: The role of accessibility experiences and (mis)attributions

Two studies tested the role of accessibility experiences and attributions in debiasing the hindsight bias. Participants listed 4 or 12 thoughts about how a college football game, or the 2000 US Presidential election, might have turned out differently. Listing 12 thoughts was experienced as difficult, suggesting to participants that there were few ways in which the event could have turned out otherwise. Hindsight biases increased under this condition, unless participants attributed the difficulty of the thought generation to their own lack of knowledge, which resulted in a trend in the opposite direction. The interplay of accessible content, accessibility experiences and attribution in mental simulation is discussed.     

Ausbildungs- und Berufserfahrungen älterer Psychoanalytiker

Based on the discussion about the crisis of psychoanalysis and in particular of psychoanalytic training, 145 (female and male) analysts older than 70 years of age were interviewed about their training and professional experiences as well as about their attitudes towards psychoanalysis. This older generation is of great interest because their training generally took place prior to 1967 and preceded the introduction of guideline therapy (cost coverage by the general health insurance) and under much less formalized conditions, which can be seen almost as a contrast to the current circumstances and conditions. This research has shown that especially personal or content and value-based motivations (personal problems, therapeutic experience, interest in the subject, the desire for depth, self-realization and expansion of the situation perceived as restrictive of their former profession) were the main determining factors for the choice of career. The training analyses were, despite some exceptions, of substantial length even then (an average of 544 h), but often had a lower frequency (30% had less than 3 h per week). Since the age limitation for running a psychoanalytic practice within the general health services (formerly 68 years) is no longer compulsory, the results of this study regarding the professional life of older psychoanalysts are of special interest. Of the respondents 45% are still running their own practice and 22% are working as training analysts.     

Dependency conflict, marital threat, and alcohol consumption in a middle-aged sample.

The hypothesis that dependency conflict is associated with higher levels of alcohol consumption when dependency needs are threatened or thwarted was tested with a sample of 672 middle-aged, married adults with college-age children. The subjects' current level of alcohol consumption was predicted based on the present level of threat to the marital relationship (assessed by reports from several family members) and on indices of dependency need and inhibition of dependent behavior estimated from sibship size, sibship density, and sibling position. A multiple regression analysis yielded a significant two-way interaction (p less than .05) between marital threat and subject sex, and a significant three-way interaction of dependency need, inhibition of dependent behavior, and marital threat. High marital threat was associated with higher levels of alcohol consumption in men and slightly lower levels of alcohol consumption in women. Additionally, when dependency need was high, alcohol consumption was generally low, except when both inhibition of dependent behavior and marital threat were high. However, when dependency need was low, the highest alcohol consumption score occurred when marital threat was low and inhibition was high.     

Evaluation of a psychological treatment for inflammatory bowel disease

Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) encompasses two related gastrointestinal-tract diseases, ulcerative colitis (UC) and Crohn's Disease (CD). This study, a randomized controlled trial, compared the effectiveness of a multi-component behavioral treatment package (n = 11), which included IBD education, progressive muscle relaxation, thermal biofeedback, and training in use of cognitive coping strategies, to the effectiveness of symptom-monitoring (n = 10) as a control condition; 8 controls subsequently completed treatment. At posttreatment, the treatment group showed mean reductions on 5 symptoms, while the symptom monitoring controls showed mean reductions on all 8 symptoms. On a measure of Total Symptomatic change, the controls showed more improvement than the treated group; the treated controls at posttreatment, showed increases on all 8 symptoms. However, treated subjects perceived themselves as coping better with IBD, as feeling less IBD-related stress, and as experiencing less depression and anxiety. It is hypothesized that inherent differences may have existed between CD and UC subjects which could have led to the differences seen in treatment responses.     

Modifying social withdrawal in preschoolers: The effects of filmed modeling and teacher praise

Thirteen social isolates were selected from five nursery schools according to teacher ratings and behavioral samples obtained by trained observers. Half the subjects were randomly assigned to a modeling group and viewed a 23-minute film depicting appropriate social behavior in the nursery school. The remainder of the subjects viewed the same film, but also received 2 days of teacher praise contingent on the subject's peer interaction in his classroom. Modeling was inferred to successfully modify isolate behavior with or without praise. The modeling plus praise condition was not significantly different from modeling only for children's social interactions. General proximity response scores appeared to be detrimentally affected by the praise contingency during posttest assessment only. At followup, all subjects maintained or improved their posttest interaction scores.Gratitude is expressed to the administrators and teachers at the Jewish Community Center of Syracuse and the Syracuse University Cooperative Nursery School.     

Affect and delay of gratification

Three experiments investigated the influence of positive and negative affect manipulations on children's preferences for small immediate versus large delayed rewards. Positive and negative affect were induced via verbal instructions to imagine happy and sad experiences. Elementary school children were randomly assigned to a control condition or to one of several treatment conditions consisting of two affect manipulations: a positive followed by a negative, the reverse, and (in the third experiment) two positives or two negatives. In some conditions (in the second and third experiments) measurement of delayed reward preference followed the first and second affect inductions whereas in other conditions (in the second and third experiments) measurement followed only the second affect manipulation. As predicted, negative affect subjects chose fewer large delayed rewards than did positive affect subjects during the first assessment (p < .02). At the second assessment, comparison among treatment and control conditions revealed the influence of a prior commitment effect which negated the potential influence of a second affect manipulation on preference for delayed rewards.