Subjunctive Conditional Probability

There seem to be two ways of supposing a proposition: supposing “indicatively” that Shakespeare didn’t write Hamlet, it is likely that someone else did; supposing “subjunctively” that Shakespeare hadn’t written Hamlet, it is likely that nobody would have written the play. Let P(B//A) be the probability of B on the subjunctive supposition that A. Is P(B//A) equal to the probability of the corresponding counterfactual, A □→B? I review recent triviality arguments against this hypothesis and argue that they do not succeed. On the other hand, I argue that even if we can equate P(B//A) with P(A □→B), we still need an account of how subjunctive conditional probabilities are related to unconditional probabilities. The triviality arguments reveal that the connection is not as straightforward as one might have hoped.     

When reactance effects persist despite restoration of freedom: Investigations of time delay and vicarious control

Two studies are reported indicating that changes in attractiveness induced by psychological reactance are eliminated by a restoration of freedom only if the restoration occurs immediately following the threat. When the restoration was delayed, changes in attractiveness were attenuated but were still significant, no matter whether the restoration occurred by chance or was under subjects' vicarious control. A threat immediately followed by a restoration, however, may be perceived as one event, and thus may not be very threatening. Therefore, the absence of reactance effects after immediate restoration may be due to a weak induction of reactance rather than to a reduction of reactance. To this extent, the incomplete reduction of reactance effects found after delayed restoration, on the other hand, calls into question earlier conclusions (based on immediate restoration) that reactance is completely reduced by restoration of freedom and that reactance effects will no longer be obtained.     

Exploring the origin of the number-size congruency effect: Sensitivity or response bias?

Physical size modulates the efficiency of digit comparison, depending on whether the relation of numerical magnitude and physical size is congruent or incongruent (Besner & Coltheart, Neuropsychologia, 17, 467–472, 1979), the number-size congruency effect (NSCE). In addition, Henik and Tzelgov (Memory & Cognition, 10, 389–395, 1982) first reported an NSCE for the reverse task of comparing the physical size of digits such that the numerical magnitude of digits modulated the time required to compare their physical sizes. Does the NSCE in physical comparisons simply reflect a number-mediated bias mechanism related to making decisions and selecting responses about the digit’s sizes? Alternatively, or in addition, the NSCE might indicate a true increase in the ability to discriminate small and large font sizes when these sizes are congruent with the digit’s symbolic numerical meaning, over and above response bias effects. We present a new research design that permits us to apply signal detection theory to a task that required observers to judge the physical size of digits. Our results clearly demonstrate that the NSCE cannot be reduced to mere response bias effects, and that genuine sensitivity gains for congruent number-size pairings contribute to the NSCE.     

Videotherapie bei postpartalen Störungen

Video recording is currently part of in- and out-patient therapy programs for parents with infants. The observation and analysis of video sequences allow the patient to gain an extraordinary insight with respect to its own experience and behaviour. Video Microanalytical Therapy (VMT) looks for the mother’s positive qualities in her relationship to the child and employs these qualities in order to support successful interactions. VMT is well-suited to the treatment of mothers with postpartal affective or psychotic disorders, because the typical cognitive distortions and reduced perception shown by these mothers can be avoided to a large extent through the use of pictures. In this study, a video microanalytical therapy concept will be presented, that was developed for the treatment of postpartally disordered mothers at the Psychiatric Centre Nordbaden in Wiesloch, Germany.     

Psychoonkologie

Changes in the spectrum of illnesses have led to a predominance of chronic diseases, including oncological disorders, that are connected with substantial mental health problems. The needs of people with cancer are increasingly attracting the attention of psychosocial and psychosomatic disciplines as far as patient-oriented health care research and counselling practice are concerned. Psychosocial work in oncology appears to be becoming increasingly professionalized. Theories of the psychosocial origin of cancer are gradually losing ground in the scientific community, giving way to a rational attitude towards oncological diseases that counters the stigma of cancer. At the same time, the demand for psycho-oncological services is becoming more important if we take into account the high rate of psychiatric co-morbidity and the fact that these patients are poorly diagnosed and inadequately treated. This is all the more regrettable in that a broad range of evidence-based interventions are available which are gradually being implemented in the guidelines of rehabilitation facilities and oncological centres of excellence. The transfer of knowledge in the everyday care of cancer patients, however, has yet not been accomplished.     

Debiasing the hindsight bias: The role of accessibility experiences and (mis)attributions

Two studies tested the role of accessibility experiences and attributions in debiasing the hindsight bias. Participants listed 4 or 12 thoughts about how a college football game, or the 2000 US Presidential election, might have turned out differently. Listing 12 thoughts was experienced as difficult, suggesting to participants that there were few ways in which the event could have turned out otherwise. Hindsight biases increased under this condition, unless participants attributed the difficulty of the thought generation to their own lack of knowledge, which resulted in a trend in the opposite direction. The interplay of accessible content, accessibility experiences and attribution in mental simulation is discussed.