A one-step method for modelling longitudinal data with differential equations

Differential equation models are frequently used to describe non-linear trajectories of longitudinal data. This study proposes a new approach to estimate the parameters in differential equation models. Instead of estimating derivatives from the observed data first and then fitting a differential equation to the derivatives, our new approach directly fits the analytic solution of a differential equation to the observed data, and therefore simplifies the procedure and avoids bias from derivative estimations. A simulation study indicates that the analytic solutions of differential equations (ASDE) approach obtains unbiased estimates of parameters and their standard errors. Compared with other approaches that estimate derivatives first, ASDE has smaller standard error, larger statistical power and accurate Type I error. Although ASDE obtains biased estimation when the system has sudden phase change, the bias is not serious and a solution is also provided to solve the phase problem. The ASDE method is illustrated and applied to a two-week study on consumers’ shopping behaviour after a sale promotion, and to a set of public data tracking participants’ grammatical facial expression in sign language. R codes for ASDE, recommendations for sample size and starting values are provided. Limitations and several possible expansions of ASDE are also discussed.     

Gender‐specific factors associated with the suicidal ideation of children in Taiwan: A large‐scale cross‐sectional study

We examined the relationship between suicidal ideation (SI) and the depressed mood, life stress and parenting styles in children. A large‐scale survey was conducted including 5328 children from 65 elementary schools in Taiwan. SI was measured by asking children if any suicidal thoughts had occurred in the previous month. A series of regression models was analysed separately for male and female students. Compared with boys, girls demonstrated a higher proportion of SI. Among boys, SI was significantly associated with a high level of perceived environmental stress (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 2.61), a high degree of depressed mood (aOR = 2.39), authoritative (aOR = 1.72) and authoritarian (aOR = 2.53) parenting styles and two or more life‐stress events (aOR = 1.45). A high level of perceived environmental stress (aOR = 2.09), a high degree of depressed mood (aOR = 2.89) and an authoritarian parenting style (aOR = 1.76) were significantly associated with the SI in girls. Gender‐specific interventions aimed at preventing SI must enhance support systems at school and at home, particularly for students who suffer from a high degree of stress and depressed mood, and are subjected to an authoritarian parenting style.     

Is knowledge of causes sufficient for understanding?

According to a traditional account, understanding why X occurred is equivalent to knowing that X was caused by Y. This paper defends the account against a major objection, viz., knowing-that is not sufficient for understanding-why, for understanding-why requires a kind of grasp while knowledge-that does not. I discuss two accounts of grasp in recent literature and argue that if either is true, then knowing that X was caused by Y entails at least a rudimentary understanding of why X occurred. If my defense is successful, it would cast doubt on an influential account of the epistemic value of understanding.     

知识产权与人权的价值冲突与统一

知识产权与人权的价值冲突,在本质上反映了现行知识产权制度中手段性价值与目的性价值之间的矛盾关系。确保现行知识产权制度中手段性价值服务于目的性价值、一般目的性价值服从于最高目的性价值,并据以平衡知识产权与人权的价值冲突,乃是改善现行国际知识产权秩序的现实需要。     

想象重要他人对自我评价转移的影响

研究目的：本研究的目的是在中国文化背景下,考察想象不同的重要他人对于个体自我评价转移的影响,并探讨自尊在其中的调节作用。考虑到大学生年龄相当,拥有相似的角色经验,故本研究选用了大二女生作为被试。研究选择了三类重要他人：父母、同性朋友、异性朋友（包括男朋友）,由于每一类重要他人所对应的关系自我各不相同,所以研究编制了针对不同重要他人的自我评价特质词表,作为因变量测量的工具。 过程与方法：本研究设计了两个实验,实验中将用到录音机。实验一为单因素实验设计,在三个实验室同时展开,各个实验室的想象重要他人分别为父母、同性朋友、异性朋友。主试告知参与者,本实验将进行一项大学女生的想象力测试,首先聆听一段描写风景的散文录音,进行想象练习。然后请她们在头脑中想象一位指定的重要他人,比如想象重要他人的形象、语言、行为等特征,尽可能详细生动。想象结束,首先请被试回忆并填写刚才想象的主要内容。然后告诉被试,另一个课题组正在搜集有关“当代大学生自我形象”的资料,请她们帮忙填写《自我评价特质词表》,对自己的一些特质进行评价。最后,主试向参与者致谢并进行了解释。实验二的想象重要他人为同性朋友和男朋友,实验过程与实验一基本一致,在自我评价测量中采用了专门针对“同性朋友”和“男朋友”的量表,并在想象完成后填写自尊量表。 结果与结论：本研究所有统计检验的显著性水平在a<0.05的水平上进行。研究探讨了中国文化背景下大学女生的关系自我评价特质,发现其与西方文化背景下的关系自我评价特质显著不同。证明了想象重要他人影响个体自我评价的维度,并会产生自我评价转移的现象,没有发现自尊变量的调节作用。     

《管子》“廉”思想探析

《管子》借鉴吸收先哲思想中“廉”的智慧,并赋予它充沛的生命力。《管子》把“廉”与政治结合起来考察,使之成为立国的四大纲要之一。《管子》的“廉”思想在社会生活和政治生活领域具体表现为：廉正为人、廉洁奉公、廉明治国。《管子》的“廉”思想在哲学、经济、法律、教育等方面均显示出与众不同的理论特色。     

高中生目标定向、学习策略、归因与成绩的关系

该文采用问卷调查的方法,对270名高中生的目标定向、学习策略、归因的特点及其与成绩的关系进行了研究。结果表明：1）男生的掌握定向倾向强于女生,且在学习中更多地采用认知和元认知策略,而女生则具有更明显的能力和内部归因。2）归因与目标定向、学习策略间呈现出较为复杂的相关关系。3）复述策略和努力归因能够负向预测成绩,调节和努力管理策略可以正向预测成绩,而目标定向通过归因和学习策略间接影响成绩。     

最佳数据选择模型——华生选择任务的理性解释

介绍华生选择任务的Oaksford概率解释模型-最佳数据选择模型.对该模型的数学结构、相关推论、及其心理学意义作了说明.     

小学儿童算术估算能力的发展

本研究深入考察了我国现阶段小学儿童算术估算能力的发展状况。通过运用自编材料对1027名儿童的团体与个别测试,发现其估算能力的发展具有如下特点：（1）明显受到题目类型的影响,但在不同年龄阶段影响又不尽相同。（2）三年级可能是整数和小数估算能力发展的一个关键期,五年级是发展分数估算能力的较好时期。（3）不同估算策略的发展进程差别相当大,不同时期都有发展的侧重点。（4）小学儿童在估算时易发生多种错误,而且不同年级均有一些典型错误。另外研究还对儿童估算能力、策略与错误类型的发展进行了深入讨论。     

原始儒家德性政治思想的遮蔽与重光——《缁衣》郭店本、上博本与传世本斠论

By analyzing the author of Ziyi 缁衣 (Black Costumes) as well as Ziyi’s transmission and evolution by studying and analyzing the ancient text, one can see that Ziyi was a work of Zisi or the Zisi and Mencius School. Comparing the similarities and differences between the transmitted version of Ziyi and its Guodian 郭店 and Shangbo 上博 versions, one finds that the original version of Ziyi had been significantly revised by Confucian classics teachers in the unstable political and social climate during the Western Han Dynasty, specifically, the thought of moral politics of the original Confucians contained in the work was garbled and concealed, and the idea of law and the legal system was highlighted accordingly. The uncovered Guodian and Shangbo versions of Ziyi have removed the shroud that Confucians in the Han Dynasty had spread over it for 2, 000 years, revealing the thought of moral politics of the original Confucians. Translated by Huang Deyuan from Kongzi Yanjiu 孔子研究 (Confucius Studies), 2007, (1): 30–41