Assessing decision strategies using HyperCard

The use of “process-tracing” techniques for examining individuals’ decision strategies has been criticized widely for yielding results that are uninformative and often confounded. The present paper describes a new technique based on a “structural” approach that allows efficient assessment of finely discriminated decision strategies via a HyperCard program called DECOUT. The program presents individuals with an information matrix (e.g., describing five alternative pesticides on three attributes). Individuals are asked to choose the best or the worst alternative in the matrix for 12 problems. Information in the matrix is constructed so that choice of an alternative by an individual is uniquely associated with use of one particular decision strategy. The strategies include information integration, maximin, maximax, pessimism-optimism, and minimax-regret processes. An experiment using the program is described, and possible directions for future research and development are discussed.     

CULTURAL VARIATION IN PROBABILISTIC THINKING: ALTERNATIVE WAYS OF DEALING WITH UNCERTAINTY*

This study reviews research on cultural differences in “probabilistic thinking” and presents some intra- and inter-cultural findings. Strong differences are shown to exist between people raised under Asian and British cultures on measures of this ability. These differences were found to out-weigh any influence of subculture, religion, occupation, arts/science orientation and sex. Generally, Asians were found to adopt a less finely differentiated view of uncertainty both numerically and verbally than did the British sample. Numerical probabilities assessed by the Asians were more extreme and less realistic than those assessed by the British sample. Possible antecedents of these differences are outlined, and cultural differences in probabilistic thinking are shown to be compatible with decriptions of cultural differences in business decision making. It is argued that there are qualitative cultural differences in ways of dealing with uncertainty.     

Robust estimation of ability in the Rasch model

Estimating ability parameters in latent trait models in general, and in the Rasch model in particular is almost always hampered by noise in the data. This noise can be caused by guessing, inattention to easy questions, and other factors which are unrelated to ability. In this study several alternative formulations which attempt to deal with these problems without a reparameterization are tested through a Monte Carlo simulation. It was found that although no one of the tested schemes is uniformly superior to all others, a modified jackknife stood out as the best one in general, it was also super efficient (more efficient than the asymptotically optimal estimator) for tests with forty or fewer items. It is proposed that this sort of jackknifing scheme for estimating ability be considered for practical work.This research was funded through a grant from the Law Enforcement Assistance Administration (78-NI-AX-0047) to the Bureau of Social Science Research, Howard Wainer, Principal Investigator. We would like to thank Ronald Mead, Anne Morgan and James Ramsay for kind, generous, and invaluable help at various stages of the project.     

Will both spouses have careers?: Predictors of preferred traditional or egalitarian marriages among university students

This study examined the significance of work preference variables, family preference variables, socialization influences, and needs for achievement and affiliation in predicting preferred traditional versus egalitarian marriages among university students. Results showed that, overall, male university students preferred traditional marriages while female university students preferred egalitarian marriages. Sex also interacted significantly with the following variables: desired family task involvement, desired job task involvement, and mother's family involvement. The data suggest that a perspective encompassing a wide variety of variables (including work, family, and socialization considerations) may be useful for conceptualizing individuals' preferences for traditional or egalitarian marriages. Implications of the results for management and career counseling are discussed.     

Perceptual deprivation,extraversion—introversion and the autokinetic phenomenon

The present study examines the relationships between perceptual-deprivation tolerance and three variables: extraversion, the autokinetic (AK) phenomenon and field-dependence. In addition, the relationship between extraversion and autokinesis (AK) was investigated. Thirty-three male subjects were subjected to 3 hr of perceptual deprivation and, in addition, their scores on each of the three independent variables were obtained. It was found, as hypothesized, that perceptual-deprivation tolerance was negatively related to extraversion and positively related to the intensity of the AK effect. Field-dependence was not related to perceptual-deprivation tolerance. The correlation between extraversion and the autokinetic effect was significant but moderate. The nature of the relationship between these two variables is discussed.     

The relationship between the probability assessor and the outcomes of an event as a determiner of subjective probability

Two experiments were conducted in which 58 subjects assessed the probability of occurrence of positive and negative events. Two types of probabilities were assessed. The first was the probability that an event would occur, influencing the assessor him/herself (SPE). The second was the probability that the same event would occur to someone else, not influencing the assessor (SNPE). Six patterns of assessments were observed. Most of the subjects assessed SPE to be higher than SNPE for positive events and SNPE to be higher than SPE for negative events. In the first experiment SNPE was assessed in regard to someone very close and similar to the assessor while in the second experiment SNPE was assessed in regard to a less-defined “else”. In the latter case the differences between SPE and SNPE were more prominent than in the first. The explanation was given in terms of motivational factors and the availability heuristic.     

The Effects of Measurement Strategy on Attributions for Marital Problems and Behaviors1

The present study examined the relation of attributions for spouse behaviors, attributions for global conjugal conflict, and marital adjustment. The sample consisted of 74 French-Canadian couples who completed the Marital Attribution Style Questionnaire, the Conflict Rating Scale, and the Dyadic Adjustment Scale. Results showed that the relation between attribution and marital satisfaction is stable across culture. In addition, specific and general attribution measures were low to moderately correlated. However, multiple regression analyses demonstrated that attributions for global conjugal conflict entered the regression equations more often than attributions for hypothetical spouse behaviors. These findings suggest that the comparability of marital attribution measures should not be taken for granted. The need to develop standardized measures is underlined.