A stochastic model for test-retest correlations

A simple stochastic model is formulated in order to determine the optimal time between the first test and the second test when the test-retest method of assessing reliability is used. A forgetting process and a change in true score process are postulated. The optimal time between tests is derived by maximizing the probability that the respondent has not remembered the response on the first test and has not had a change in true score. The resulting test-retest correlation is then found to be a linear function of the true reliability of the test, where the slope of this function is the key probability of not remembering and having no change in true score. Some numerical examples and suggestions for using the results in empirical studies are given. Specific recommendations are presented for improved design and analysis of intentions data.This research was made possible by a grant from the Center for Food Policy Research, Graduate School of Business, Columbia University, New York, New York, 10027.     

Predicting contraceptive behavior from attitudes: a comparison of within- versus across-subjects procedures

Within- versus across-subjects procedures for predicting behavior from attitudes were contrasted. Each procedure requires a comparison among attitudes in order to generate a prediction; the comparison is either among the same attitudes held by different people (across subjects) or among different attitudes held by the same person (within subject). It was hypothesized that the within-subject model provides a more adequate explanation of behavior from attitudinal constructs and, hence, more accurate prediction of behavior from attitudes than does the across-subjects model. To test this view, a sample of 349 married couples was administered a questionnaire containing measures of three attitudinal components--affect, cognition, and conation--toward each of four contraceptive methods--oral contraceptives, IUD, diaphragm, and condoms. Contraceptive behavior was assessed 1 year later. In support of the hypothesis, the within-subject predictions bore a significantly stronger relation to the behavioral criteria than did the across-subjects predictions. This effect was consistent for each of the three components of attitude, for the prediction of behavior and behavioral intention, for male and female respondents, and for a variety of contraceptive behaviors. In addition, both the within- and the across-subjects analyses demonstrated a clear rank ordering in the predictive validity of the three attitudinal components: Conation was a better predictor of behavior than was affect, which, in turn, was better than cognition.     

Perceptual deprivation,extraversion—introversion and the autokinetic phenomenon

The present study examines the relationships between perceptual-deprivation tolerance and three variables: extraversion, the autokinetic (AK) phenomenon and field-dependence. In addition, the relationship between extraversion and autokinesis (AK) was investigated. Thirty-three male subjects were subjected to 3 hr of perceptual deprivation and, in addition, their scores on each of the three independent variables were obtained. It was found, as hypothesized, that perceptual-deprivation tolerance was negatively related to extraversion and positively related to the intensity of the AK effect. Field-dependence was not related to perceptual-deprivation tolerance. The correlation between extraversion and the autokinetic effect was significant but moderate. The nature of the relationship between these two variables is discussed.     

The relationship between the probability assessor and the outcomes of an event as a determiner of subjective probability

Two experiments were conducted in which 58 subjects assessed the probability of occurrence of positive and negative events. Two types of probabilities were assessed. The first was the probability that an event would occur, influencing the assessor him/herself (SPE). The second was the probability that the same event would occur to someone else, not influencing the assessor (SNPE). Six patterns of assessments were observed. Most of the subjects assessed SPE to be higher than SNPE for positive events and SNPE to be higher than SPE for negative events. In the first experiment SNPE was assessed in regard to someone very close and similar to the assessor while in the second experiment SNPE was assessed in regard to a less-defined “else”. In the latter case the differences between SPE and SNPE were more prominent than in the first. The explanation was given in terms of motivational factors and the availability heuristic.     

Information Seeking Within Organizations

In this article, both the literature on employee feedback‐seeking behavior and the literature on information seeking by organizational newcomers are reviewed. This review highlights the various motives that affect the decision of whether or not to seek information, shows how the strength of those motives is affected by both characteristics of the individual and characteristics of the organizational context, and reviews evidence that information seeking has beneficial outcomes. The author then offers an integrated model of antecedents, dynamics, forms, and outcomes of employee information seeking and concludes with suggestions for how future research can extend current understanding of employee information seeking.     

Intrinsicality and the classification of uninstantiable properties

Philosophical Studies - It is often held that identity properties like the property of being identical to Paris are intrinsic. It is also often held that, while some logically uninstantiable...     

Dynamics Versus Development in Numerosity Estimation: A Computational Model Accurately Predicts a Developmental Reversal

Perceptual judgments result from a dynamic process, but little is known about the dynamics of number-line estimation. A recent study proposed a computational model that combined a model of trial-to-trial changes with a model for the internal scaling of discrete numbers. Here, we tested a surprising prediction of the model—a situation in which children's estimates of numerosity would be better than those of adults. Consistent with the model simulations, task contexts led to a clear developmental reversal: children made more adult-like, linear estimates when to-be-estimated numbers were descending over trials (i.e., backward condition), whereas adults became more like children with logarithmic estimates when numbers were ascending (i.e., forward condition). In addition, adults’ estimates were subject to inter-trial differences regardless of stimulus order. In contrast, children were not able to use the trial-to-trial dynamics unless stimuli varied systematically, indicating the limited cognitive capacity for dynamic updates. Together, the model adequately predicts both developmental and trial-to-trial changes in number-line tasks.