(Neuro)predictions,Dangerousness, and Retributivism

Through the criminal justice system so-called dangerous offenders are, besides the offence that they are being convicted of and sentenced to, also punished for acts that they have not done but that they are believe to be likely to commit in the future. The aim of this paper is to critically discuss whether some adherents of retributivism give a plausible rationale for punishing offenders more harshly if they, all else being equal, by means of predictions are believed to be more dangerous than other offenders. While consequentialism has no problem, at least in principle, with this use of predictions most retributivists have been opponents of punishing offenders on the basis of predictions. How can an offender deserve to be punished for something that he has not done? But some retributivists like Anthony Duff and Stephen Morse have argued in favor of punishing offenders who are considered to be dangerous in the future more harshly than non-dangerous offenders. After having reconstructed their arguments in detail, it will be argued that both Duff’s and Morse’s attempts to give a retributivistic justification have several shortcomings.     

Filial Piety,Generativity and Older Adults’ Wellbeing and Loneliness in Denmark and China

The article considers the potential of intergenerational encounters and family and social ties for alleviating loneliness and promoting older adults’ wellbeing. Loneliness has been widely recognized as one of the factors that are most deeply and pervasively detrimental to older adults’ wellbeing. We combine theoretical reflections with a comparative study of older adults in Denmark and China. Both countries have to deal with an aging population and growing number of cases of isolation and loneliness in an increasingly individualized society. They differ, however, with regard to how far they have developed a system of institutionalized care, as well as with regard to their culture-specific views of family life and parent-child relationships. We apply the notions of filial piety, known from Confucian philosophy but often misinterpreted as conservative and conformist, and generativity, to qualitative studies of older adults in Denmark and China. The great potential of intergenerational ties is confirmed. Our study also shows that filial piety is still highly valued, in both China and Denmark, and can be maintained even in a highly individualized society. There is, however, considerable uncertainty among both older adults and their younger relatives as to what is required and what can be expected; realism, and an emphasis on the quality, rather than the quantity of interaction, may be sensible coping strategies, but can also lead to unnecessary acquiescence and self-abnegation. Our study also serves to distinguish different aspects and effects on wellbeing of intergenerational relationships.

     

Religion,Morality, and Democratic Virtues: A Liberal Theological Approach to Pastoral Care

Starting from a general definition of pastoral care and politics, it is argued that pastoral care can have nothing to do with party politics. Instead, the theme of pastoral care and politics should be regarded as a sub-set of the larger issue of religion and politics in a democratic society. Adopting the view that political philosophy is at bottom an exercise in moral reflection, this article focuses on two interrelated issues: the compatibility of religion and democracy, and the connection between religion and morality. The argument proceeds in three steps. In the first section, it is demonstrated why and how major political philosophers deem it necessary to impose certain limitations on the role of religion in the public square. In the second section, Kierkegaard’s interpretation of the biblical story of Abraham’s near-sacrifice of Isaac (Gen. 22) is treated as a problematic tradition in Christian theology of admiring authoritarian faith. Finally, as a means of overcoming these difficulties, a plea is made for returning to the tradition of liberal theology and its emphasis on the internal connection between religion and morality, and on developing conscience and civic virtues by way of self-culture.     

The Probability of Guilt in Criminal Cases: Are People Aware of Being ‘Beyond Reasonable Doubt’?

Data from a series of studies presenting video recorded witness statements to laypersons and legal professionals were examined to trace the relationship between judged probability of guilt and the willingness to vote guilty or not guilty in hypothetical trials, in the absence of specific jury instructions. The results show that a majority of jury‐eligible young and elderly participants, and police officers, were willing to convict a defendant when the judged probability of guilt exceeded .6. This is considerably below the legally accepted standard of ‘beyond reasonable doubt’, which usually is equated with a very high, around .9 perceived certainty. When jury deliberations were allowed, the threshold for conviction rose, approaching the standard evinced by trial judges under the same conditions. The results suggest that people prefer to vote for guilt according to a balance of probabilities principle, considering only the individual case, and disregarding the implied frequencies of false convictions. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Improvement of Thematic Classification in Offender Profiling: Classifying Serbian Homicides Using Multiple Correspondence,Cluster, and Discriminant Function Analyses

This paper investigates thematic classification of homicides for the purpose of behavioural investigative analysis (e.g. offender profiling). Previous research has predominantly used smallest space analysis (SSA) to conceptualise and classify offences into thematic groups based on crime scene behaviour data. This paper introduces a combined approach utilising multiple correspondence analysis (MCA), cluster analysis (CA), and discriminant function analysis (DFA) to define and differentiate crime scenes into expressive or instrumental and impersonal or personal crimes. MCA is used to derive the latent structural dimensions in the crime data and produce quantitative scores for each offence along these dimensions. Two‐step CA was then utilised to classify offences. Offence dimensional scores were then used to predict cluster membership under DFA, producing cluster centroids corresponding to MCA dimensions. Centroids were plotted on the MCA correspondence map to simultaneously conceptualise crime classification and the latent structure of the Serbian crime data. Classification of offences based on MCA dimensional scores were 91.5% accurate. This MCA–CA–DFA approach may reduce some of the more subjective aspects of SSA methodology used in classification, whilst producing a product more amenable to objective and cumulative review. Implications for offender profiling research utilising SSA and this approach are discussed. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Relationship quality,divorce, and well-being: Findings from a three-year longitudinal study

Recent studies indicate that divorce sometimes is positive for subjective well-being, but we lack knowledge about the circumstances under which this is the case. Further, we lack knowledge about the possible different associations between divorce and life satisfaction (LS) vs. positive affect (PA). The current study is based on the Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort Study (MoBa). Change in LS and PA over a three-year period was examined in women who divorced and women who did not divorce (N > 37,000). Relationship quality and relationship status at follow-up were included in the models. The results indicated that divorce predicted higher LS and PA when initial relationship quality was poor. Furthermore, divorce predicted higher PA for women who, after divorce, reported being in a new romantic relationship. The associations between relationship quality and LS and PA were stronger among not-divorced than divorced women, indicating that relationship quality affects LS and PA.     

Does Low Dose Ionizing Radiation Cause Cancer? The Interplay of Epistemology and Ethics in Radiation Protection

In order to investigate the relationship between scientific evidence and social commitments this article addresses three questions: (1) does low dose ionizing radiation cause cancer? (2) Is the answer to this question different in a social setting than in a scientific context? (3) What are the consequences of the answers of 1 and 2 for the relationship between epistemology and ethics as played out in radiation protection? Conceptual analysis with basis in the philosophy of science, in particular traditional theories of causality. Whether low dose ionizing radiation causes cancer deeply depends on what we mean by causality. According to traditional scientific conceptions of causality it is not warranted to say that low dose ionizing radiation causes cancer. Standard approaches in radiation protection, however, imply that there is a causal connection, which is due to the strong social commitment in the field. There is a close relationship between social and scientific conceptions of causality, posing a series of challenges: one being that scientists covertly become moral experts, another one that the general public can be misinformed. There is a difference between causality in science and in policy making. Mixing these conceptions, as sometimes is done in radiation protection, can be misleading. Whether low dose ionizing radiation causes cancer is a social and not only a scientific issue. As such those who are warranted to have a say.