Should physicians be Bayesian agents?

Because physicians use scientific inference for the generalizations of individual observations and the application of general knowledge to particular situations, the Bayesian probability solution to the problem of induction has been proposed and frequently utilized. Several problems with the Bayesian approach are introduced and discussed. These include: subjectivity, the favoring of a weak hypothesis, the problem of the false hypothesis, the old evidence/new theory problem and the observation that physicians are not currently Bayesians. To the complaint that the prior probability is subjective, Bayesians reply that there will be ultimate convergence, but the rebuttal to this is that there will not be uniform convergence. Secondly, since the Bayesian scheme favors a weak hypothesis, theories turn out to be a gratuitous risk. The problem with the false hypothesis comes out in the denominator of the theorem, revealing that a factor which is not a theory at all is being considered in the reasoning. On the old evidence/new theory problem old evidence cannot confirm a new theory so that the posterior probability will equal the prior probability. Finally, empiric studies have shown that current physicians are not Bayesians. But on consideration of Bayesian inference as a system of inference, it can be reasoned that physicians should be Bayesians. However, the problem of physicians' and patients' own subjectivity continue to plague this system of medical decision making.     

Carl Rogers and Martin Luther—A “reformation” in the helping professions

The 16th century schism in Christian thought leading to the Reformation has an interesting analogy in Carl Rogers' attempt to reform the helping professions. An exploration of this analogy clarifies much of the theoretical tension in the contemporary arena of pastoral counseling.     

Individual gustatory reaction times to various groups of chemicals that provoke basic taste qualities

Reaction times (RTs) to four groups of substances that provoke different taste qualities were measured. Measurements for all substances with the same taste, equalized in perceived intensity and provoking a very strong taste, were made concurrently for each subject. The comparisons were made on the individual level. No significant differences in RTs to substances with the same taste quality were found. When the factor of perceived intensity is kept constant, no effect of the stimulus chemical composition on RTs seems to be present. RTs to stimuli with different tastes differ significantly, the shortest being to salt and the longest to bitter. The difference in RTs for sour and sweet substances is small, and the subjects were not all alike in terms of the order of RTs with respect to these stimuli.     

Reliability of job evaluation: Differences across sex-typed jobs

Recent work has questioned whether a single job evaluation instrument can reliably measure jobs from different job families. To test this, a generalizability study was done to determine the reliability of three job evaluation instruments: one for male-dominated jobs, MIMA-Shop, one for female-dominated jobs, MIMA-office and one which evaluated both types, FES. Initial results indicated that the latter instrument suffered no loss in reliability, and that all three instruments were equally highly reliable. A second analysis evaluated the reliability of the FES for male-dominated jobs separately from the reliability of the FES for female-dominated jobs. These results indicated no significant difference in reliability for male-dominated jobs and for female-dominated jobs. Implications of these findings were discussed.A previous version of this paper was presented at the 95th Annual Convention of the American Psychological Association at New York City, August 1987.     

Emotions and emotional communication in infants

Important advances have recently been made in studying emotions in infants and the nature of emotional communication between infants and adults. Infant emotions and emotional communications are far more organized than previously thought. Infants display a variety of discrete affective expressions that are appropriate to the nature of events and their context. They also appreciate the emotional meaning of the affective displays of caretakers. The emotional expressions of the infant and the caretaker function to allow them to mutually regulate their interactions. Indeed, it appears that a major determinant of children's development is related to the operation of this communication system. Positive development may be associated with the experience of coordinated interactions characterized by frequent reparations of interactive errors and the transformation of negative affect into positive affect, whereas negative development appears to be associated with sustained periods of interactive failure and negative affect.     

Hypothesizing and evidence-gathering: the nexus of understanding

Prior discussion of hypothesizing as a session "guideline" has not fully clarified the derivation of hypotheses. Reviewing relevant philosophy of science literature, the authors develop the notions of evidence and evidence-gathering in systemic family therapy. The authors claim evidence-gathering and hypothesizing are interdependent, reciprocal elements of scientific understanding. The structure of evidence is described along with practical and qualitative rules for collecting and using evidence. This model is applied to a case example illustrating the logic of clinical process. Implications are discussed for family therapy training and supervision.     

The effects of depression on structural aspects of the recall of prose

Investigated depressed patients' memory for stories. This indicated that although normal Ss showed particularly good recall for units central to the structure of the story, this did not hold for depressed Ss. In contrast, effects of centrality were comparable in high- and low-IQ Ss and effects of imageability of story units were comparable in both depressed and normal Ss. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that depressed patients do not use structure to organize stories when encoding them. A failure to identify central aspects of material and selectively recall them is likely to be a handicap to everyday functioning.     

Acupuncture and emotion: the influence of acupuncture anesthesia on the sensory and emotional components of pain

Objective indices (heart rate, perspiration quantity, finger plethysmograph curves, and facial expression) and subjective indices (sensory and emotional subject reports) were recorded for 25 young Chinese adults (16 men, 9 women) during and after the simultaneous application of a strong pain stimulus and either foot classical (alloneural points Tsusanli and Yanglingchuan) or hand classical (alloneural points Hegu and Neiguan) acupuncture. Both forms of acupuncture were equally effective, showing that stimulation of the same nerve is not essential for pain relief. Acupuncture assuaged the emotional, but not the sensory, response to the painful stimulation.     

The development of structural complexity in the child's concept of family: the effect of cognitive stage, sex, and intactness of family

Twenty-eight boys and 28 girls at each of the Piagetian preoperational, concrete operational, and formal operational cognitive stages were given an interview focusing on their concepts of family. Half of each group were from intact families, and half were from divorced families. Interviews were scored for two structural aspects of the concept of family: conceptual level, and use of dimensions that structure the concept. The complexity of children's concepts was strongly related to cognitive stage and, to a lesser degree, to sex. Frequency of use of concept dimensions was strongly affected by general developmental level, though not specifically cognitive stage, and by intactness of family, but to a lesser degree by sex. Specific information is provided on the effect of these factors on perceptions of family composition, parental roles, and breadth of family activities.