On the shape of the probability weighting function

Empirical studies have shown that decision makers do not usually treat probabilities linearly. Instead, people tend to overweight small probabilities and underweight large probabilities. One way to model such distortions in decision making under risk is through a probability weighting function. We present a nonparametric estimation procedure for assessing the probability weighting function and value function at the level of the individual subject. The evidence in the domain of gains supports a two-parameter weighting function, where each parameter is given a psychological interpretation: one parameter measures how the decision maker discriminates probabilities, and the other parameter measures how attractive the decision maker views gambling. These findings are consistent with a growing body of empirical and theoretical work attempting to establish a psychological rationale for the probability weighting function.     

Simulations of schedule-controlled behavior

A computer model that simulates the patterns of responding of infrahuman subjects under several schedules of reinforcement is described. The model is dynamic in that it continuously assesses the values of several interacting variables that are, in turn, affected by simulated environ-mental events that are scheduled by a procedure program. The data generated by the computer model, including cumulative records, closely conform to reported experimental data. The results indicate that computer simulations are a very useful tool for developing quantitative theories of operant behavior.     

Predictors of relationship satisfaction during the COVID-19 pandemic

Prior work and theory suggest many vulnerabilities, stressors, and adaptive processes shape relationship satisfaction. In the current research, we used machine learning to understand which constructs have greater predictive importance for perceived changes in satisfaction since the pandemic began and satisfaction over the prior week. In a large sample collected at the beginning of the pandemic (N = 1873; Study 1), relationship processes were most predictive, explaining up to 70% of variance in satisfaction. Feeling appreciative of one's partner and being satisfied with quality time spent with one's partner were consistently top predictors of satisfaction. We also examined whether these important predictors were associated with changes in relationship satisfaction across the first year of the pandemic in a longitudinal subsample (N = 618; Study 2). Appreciation and satisfaction with quality time were associated with high and relatively stable relationship satisfaction over time.     

The Spanish version of the Vividness of Visual Imagery Questionnaire: factor structure and internal consistency reliability

We examined the factor structure and internal consistency reliability of the Spanish version of the Vividness of Visual Imagery Questionnaire which was applied to a sample of 850 secondary school students. Factor structure investigated by principal components analysis, followed by varimax orthogonal rotation, indicated that a single factor explained 37% of the variance. The internal consistency of the questionnaire was good (Cronbach alpha=.88). We conclude that the Spanish version of the questionnaire, like the English version, has a single factor and high internal consistency reliability.     

Chances and frequencies in probabilistic reasoning: rejoinder to Hoffrage,Gigerenzer, Krauss,and Martignon

Do individuals unfamiliar with probability and statistics need a specific type of data in order to draw correct inferences about uncertain events? Girotto and Gonzalez (Cognition 78 (2001) 247) showed that naive individuals solve frequency as well as probability problems, when they reason extensionally, in particular when probabilities are represented by numbers of chances. Hoffrage, Gigerenzer, Krauss, and Martignon (Cognition 84 (2002) 343) argued that numbers of chances are natural frequencies disguised as probabilities, though lacking the properties of true probabilities. They concluded that we failed to demonstrate that naive individuals can deal with true probabilities as opposed to natural frequencies. In this paper, we demonstrate that numbers of chances do represent probabilities, and that naive individuals do not confuse numbers of chances with frequencies. We conclude that there is no evidence for the claim that natural frequencies have a special cognitive status, and the evolutionary argument that the human mind is unable to deal with probabilities.     

Evolving judgments of terror risks: foresight, hindsight, and emotion

The authors examined the evolution of cognitive and emotional responses to terror risks for a nationally representative sample of Americans between late 2001 and late 2002. Respondents' risk judgments changed in ways consistent with their reported personal experiences. However, they did not recognize these changes, producing hindsight bias in memories for their judgments. An intensive debiasing procedure failed to restore a foresightful perspective. A fear-inducing manipulation increased risk estimates, whereas an anger-inducing manipulation reduced them-both in predictions (as previously observed) and in memories and judgments of past risks. Thus, priming emotions shaped not only perceptions of an abstract future but also perceptions of a concrete past. These results suggest how psychological research can help to ensure an informed public.     

Random effects diagonal metric multidimensional scaling models

By assuming a distribution for the subject weights in a diagonal metric (INDSCAL) multidimensional scaling model, the subject weights become random effects. Including random effects in multidimensional scaling models offers several advantages over traditional diagonal metric models such as those fitted by the INDSCAL, ALSCAL, and other multidimensional scaling programs. Unlike traditional models, the number of parameters does not increase with the number of subjects, and, because the distribution of the subject weights is modeled, the construction of linear models of the subject weights and the testing of those models is immediate. Here we define a random effects diagonal metric multidimensional scaling model, give computational algorithms, describe our experiences with these algorithms, and provide an example illustrating the use of the model and algorithms.We would like to thank J. Douglas Carroll for early consultation of this research, and Robert I. Jennrich for commenting on an earlier draft of this paper and for help on the computational algorithms. James O. Ramsay and Forrest W. Young were instrumental in providing the example data. This work was supported in part by National Institute of Mental Health grant 1 R43 MH57559-01. We would also like to thank the anonymous referees for comments that helped to clarify our work.     

In pursuit of a historical tradition: N. A. Rozhkov’s scientific laws of history

Despite all that has been written about Russian historiography and how it profoundly changed after the Bolsheviks seized power in 1917, very little is known about the historical tradition immediately before the Soviet era. This article attempts to begin to address this issue by examining the major forces that shaped the historical and sociological thought of Nikolai Alesandrovich Rozhkov (1868–1927). It argues that as Kliuchevskii’s successor and as the first professional historian to eventually present a Marxist analysis of Russian history, Rozhkov was not only the most important historian at that time but one whose work best represented the most significant transition in Russia’s historical tradition. The article concludes that an examination of Rozhkov’s historical methodology offers a new interpretation of the origins of Soviet historiography.