Participant recruitment methods and statistical reasoning performance

Optimal Bayesian reasoning performance has reportedly been elusive, and a variety of explanations have been suggested for this situation. In a series of experiments, it is demonstrated that these difficulties with replication can be accounted for by differences in participant-sampling methodologies. Specifically, the best performances are obtained with students from top-tier, national universities who were paid for their participation. Performance drops significantly as these conditions are altered regarding inducements (e.g., using unpaid participants) or participant source (e.g., using participants from a second-tier, regional university). Honours-programme undergraduates do better than regular undergraduates within the same university, paid participation creates superior performance, and top-tier university students do better than students from lower ranked universities. Pictorial representations (supplementing problem text) usually have a slight facilitative effect across these participant manipulations. These results indicate that studies should take account of these methodological details and focus more on relative levels of performance rather than absolute performance.     

The prevention of depressive symptoms in rural Australian women

Two interventions aimed at preventing depressive symptoms in women living in Western Australian rural communities were evaluated against a no‐intervention control condition. The standard intervention was based upon traditional cognitive‐behaviour treatments for depression; the experimental intervention was based upon prevention strategies derived from the learned helplessness model of depression (e.g. Peterson, Maier, & Seligman, 1993 ). Seventy‐six women were randomly assigned to either the standard or the experimental group, and a further 20 women formed a no‐intervention control group. The standard group showed a reduction in depressive symptoms at post‐test, but no effects at 6‐week or 6‐month follow‐ups. In contrast, a reduction in depressive symptoms did not appear for the experimental group until the 6‐week follow‐up at which time a less depressive attributional style was also evident; these effects were even more pronounced at the 6‐month follow‐up. The no‐intervention control group showed no changes across time. It is argued that these results support the applicability of prevention strategies based on the learned helplessness model to this population. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Are absolute frequencies,relative frequencies,or both effective in reducing cognitive biases?

Biases in probabilistic reasoning are affected by alterations in the presentation of judgment tasks. In our experiments, students made likelihood judgments that an event was produced by various causes. These judgments were made in terms of probability, relative frequency or absolute frequency on a full or a pruned list of causes. When they had little personal experience of the event (causes of death), the pruning bias was smaller with relative frequencies than with absolute frequencies or probabilities. When they had more personal experience of the event (missing a lecture), the bias was less with both types of frequency than with probability but still lowest with relative frequency. We suggest that likelihood information is usually stored as relative frequencies when it has been obtained from public sources but that it is based on event counts when it is derived from personal experience. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Understanding of the current police caution (England and Wales)

The Criminal Justice and Public Order Act 1994 (England and Wales) modified suspects' right to silence during police questioning and required a new police caution. The current 37-word caution was introduced after it was found that a proposed 60-word draft version was too complex. The results of the present study show that, although more succinct, the current caution is no easier to explain. Even under optimal conditions, when the participants could focus on each sentence in turn, only 1 in 10 of the general population (n=15), 6 in 10 of A-level students preparing for university (n=72) and 9 in 10 police officers (n=21) demonstrated their understanding by explaining all three sentences correctly. For all groups, the difficulties were more marked when the caution was presented in its entirety, as would happen in real life. The complexity of the caution has serious implications for suspects in police detention. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Co-reference and reasoning

Memory &; Cognition - Co-reference occurs when two or more noun phrases refer to the same individual, as in the following inferential problem: Mark is kneeling by the fire or he is looking at...     

Diagnostic Utility: Experimental Demonstrations and Replications of Powerful Question Effects in High‐Stakes Deception Detection

The concept of diagnostic utility was used to create questions that would differentially affect deception detection accuracy. Six deception detection studies show that subtle differences in questioning produced accuracy rates that were predictably, substantially, and reliably above and below chance. The first 3 detection studies demonstrate that diagnostically useful questioning can reliably achieve accuracy rates over 70% with student and experienced judges. The fourth and fifth experiments demonstrated negative diagnostic utility among federal investigators but not students. The final experiment crossed 3 sets of interview questions with experience. Strong question effects produced a swing in accuracy from 32 to 73%. A questioning by experience interaction was also obtained.     

Problem‐Focused Content in the Job Search: Two Tests of the Cognitive‐Emotional Theory of Esteem Support Messages

The Cognitive‐Emotional Theory of Esteem Support Messages posits that messages intended to enhance recipients' state self‐esteem focus on cognitions and/or behaviors. In the current studies, problem‐focused message content (i.e., content focused on enacting behavior to alleviate the esteem threat) was of particular interest. College students (Study 1, n= 227) applying for postgraduation jobs and unemployed, underemployed, and/or displaced workers recruited from a government one‐stop career center (Study 2, n = 292) rated esteem support messages varying in degree of focus on behaviors vs. cognitions relevant to the job search process. Messages focused on behavior were rated as less effective than those focusing on cognitions relevant to the esteem threat, although support for this result was stronger in Study 2.