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971.
Although risk assessment has increasingly been used as a tool to help reform the criminal justice system, some stakeholders are adamantly opposed to using algorithms. The principal concern is that any benefits achieved by safely reducing rates of incarceration will be offset by costs to racial justice claimed to be inherent in the algorithms themselves. But fairness trade-offs are inherent to the task of predicting recidivism, whether the prediction is made by an algorithm or human. Based on a matched sample of 67,784 Black and White federal supervisees assessed with the Post Conviction Risk Assessment, we compared how three alternative strategies for “debiasing” algorithms affect these trade-offs, using arrest for a violent crime as the criterion . These candidate algorithms all strongly predict violent reoffending (areas under the curve = 0.71–72), but vary in their association with race (r = 0.00–0.21) and shift trade-offs between balance in positive predictive value and false-positive rates. Providing algorithms with access to race (rather than omitting race or “blinding” its effects) can maximize calibration and minimize imbalanced error rates. Implications for policymakers with value preferences for efficiency versus equity are discussed. 相似文献
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A number of theoretical positions in psychology—including variants of case-based reasoning, instance-based analogy, and connectionist models—maintain that abstract rules are not involved in human reasoning, or at best play a minor role. Other views hold that the use of abstract rules is a core aspect of human reasoning. We propose eight criteria for determining whether or not people use abstract rules in reasoning, and examine evidence relevant to each criterion for several rule systems. We argue that there is substantial evidence that several different inferential rules, including modus ponens, contractual rules, causal rules, and the law of large numbers, are used in solving everyday problems. We discuss the implications for various theoretical positions and consider hybrid mechanisms that combine aspects of instance and rule models. 相似文献
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Temporomandibular dysfunction (TMD) pain, like many chronic pain problems, appears to be multiply determined. Patients with TMD pain of at least 6 months duration (N = 30) were administered questionnaires measuring dispositional coping styles and appraisals to explore the dynamic interactions of the pain and coping process. Patients were then issued handheld computers that prompted them to record their momentary pain and coping processes 4 times per day for 7 days. Hierarchical linear regression models using both the dispositional and momentary predictors indicated that momentary pain was a function both of dispositional tendency to catastrophize and of momentary measures of catastrophization, self-efficacy, and mood states. Results were seen as supporting a situational model of intervention for chronic TMD pain. 相似文献
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The structure of people's conceptual knowledge of concrete nouns has traditionally been viewed as hierarchical ( Collins & Quillian, 1969 ). For example, superordinate concepts ( vegetable ) are assumed to reside at a higher level than basic-level concepts ( carrot ). A feature-based attractor network with a single layer of semantic features developed representations of both basic-level and superordinate concepts. No hierarchical structure was built into the network. In Experiment and Simulation 1, the graded structure of categories (typicality ratings) is accounted for by the flat attractor network. Experiment and Simulation 2 show that, as with basic-level concepts, such a network predicts feature verification latencies for superordinate concepts ( vegetable ). In Experiment and Simulation 3, counterintuitive results regarding the temporal dynamics of similarity in semantic priming are explained by the model. By treating both types of concepts the same in terms of representation, learning, and computations, the model provides new insights into semantic memory. 相似文献