Computers and commitment to a public management decision: An experiment

Based on results of an experiment, hypotheses are tested concerning the effects of computer use on decision commitment. The experiment required subjects to make an adoption decision regarding a hypothetical government agency's innovation. Subjects could choose from a variety of information sets, some computer based, some not, before making the decision. After their decision the subjects were given “new evidence” that contradicted their initial position. Two experimental treatments included more difficult access to the computer-based information and higher cost for the computer-based information. Results indicate that access difficulty diminishes confidence in decisions and leads to lesser commitment. However, the cost of the computer information seems to have little bearing on decision commitment. Barry Bozeman is director of the Technology and Information Policy Program of the Maxwell School of Public Affairs, Syracuse University, Syracuse NY 13244-4010. There he is professor of public policy and administration and affiliate professor of engineering. His research has focused on organization theory and public management, science and technology policy, and the use of technical information in decision-making. R.F. Shangraw, Jr. is vice president of Independent Project Analysis, Inc., Great Falls, Virginia. Previously, he was assistant professor of public administration at Syracuse University. His research interests include information management, decision-making, and public policy applications of expert systems.     

Errors in the quantification of uncertainty: A product of heuristics or minimal probability knowledge base?

The use of intuitive heuristics (e. g. representativeness and availability) has been put forward as an explanation for peoples' assignment of probabilities (Tversky and Kahneman, 1971). This phenomenon is seen as robust since experts as defined by education (professional psychologisis), despite advanced training in statistics and methodology, rely on the same heuristics as novices (lay people). Both experts and novices, as defined by education, were studied in a series of experiments and further classified as experts and novices according to their probability knowledge base, prior to receiving (or not) a brief (15-minute) training session. Immediately following training, subjects completed a probability test which consisted of ten Tversky and Kahneman (e. g. 1974) problems. The training significantly increased the number of problems correctly solved on the probability test and eliminated the expert/novice education classification. The results of a follow-up test 5 weeks after the experiment indicated that the training group maintained its superior performance. It is proposed that failure to use proper methods of probability assignment may not be due to intrinsic human inference biases or heuristics, but is a result of a minimal probability knowledge base.     

Age and scholarly impact

The claim that older scientists generate research of lower quality than do younger scientists was tested through two analyses in which the age distribution of authors of frequently cited articles in psychology journals was compared with the age distribution of authors of low-impact articles published in the same journals. Most high-impact articles were published by relatively young psychologists, but so were most low-impact articles. When allowance was made for relative numerical representation, there was no evidence that publications from older scientists have less impact. Results are discussed in the context of methodological issues in evaluation of relations between age and scientific achievement.     

Angular homeostasis: IV. Polygonal orbits

Some properties are discussed of regular polygons that may result from angular homeostatic processes in stable orbit. To characterize these homeostatic polygons we need to discuss the winding number, the sidedness (integer, fractional and irrational), multiplicity, envelopes, and density. A regular (i.e., equilateral, equiangular) polygon may be closed in one revolution about its unique center, in multiple revolutions, or not at all. A homeostatic polygon can be generated only if all vertices are included in a single polygon, which occurs if and only if the number of vertices and the number of revolutions required to complete the polygon are relatively prime. For the homeostatic polygon to have a finite number of sides (without repeating itself) the angle subtended by any two successive vertices at the center must be a rational multiple of 2. Biological implications of these properties are illustrated.     

A controlled comparative investigation of psychological treatments for chronic sleep-onset insomnia

A sample of physician-referred chronic insomniacs was randomly allocated to either progressive relaxation, stimulus control, paradoxical intention, placebo or no treatment conditions. Treatment process and outcome were investigated in terms of mean and standard deviation (night to night variability) measures of sleep pattern and sleep quality. Only active treatments were associated with significant improvement, but the nature of treatment gains varied. In particular, stimulus control improved sleep pattern, whereas relaxation affected perception of sleep quality. All improvements were maintained at 17 month follow-up. Results are discussed with reference to previous research and guidelines are given for clinical practice.     

Affective quality of family relations and adolescent identity exploration

The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between adolescent pubertal status, the affective quality of family relations, and the early adolescent's exploration of a sense of ego identity. Fifty-one intact families with adolescents in the seventh grade agreed to participate. Each family member completed a battery of questionnaires designed to assess familial adaptation to pubertal growth and identity exploration. The results reveal that the affective quality of parent-adolescent relationships and the pubertal status of the adolescent appear to influence the adolescent's exploration of ego identity. The need to establish the functional significance of familial adaptation to adolescent pubertal growth for identity development is discussed.     

Followup in psychoanalysis: clinical and research values

Psychoanalysis has never developed a tradition of systematic followup study to evaluate outcome and to improve technique and theory for a variety of reasons, partly theoretical, stemming from the conception of the unfolding transference neurosis and its analytic resolution as the precondition for cure, and partly historical, having to do with the happenstance of its development as a private practice-based discipline and training outside of the academic setting. Freud, however, was never bound by such strictures and published whatever post-treatment data he acquired on all his best-known case histories. But following Freud most analysts, with some notable exceptions, eschewed followup activity as unanalytic. It is this tradition that more recent studies like those of Pfeffer in New York and the Psychotherapy Research Project of The Menninger Foundation in Topeka have squarely challenged. Data are presented from the Menninger project dealing specifically with the impact of routine planned followup on issues of treatment termination and resolution and on the nature of the post-treatment period. The degree and kind of patient cooperation with the followup inquiry, the impact of followup on treatment termination and resolution (both impeding and facilitating), and the role of followup intervention in relation to return to formal post-treatment therapy (or consolidating against it), are all discussed.