A Bayesian Solution to the Conflict of Narrowness and Precision in Direct Inference

The conflict of narrowness and precision in direct inference occurs if a body of evidence contains estimates for frequencies in a certain reference class and less precise estimates for frequencies in a narrower reference class. To develop a solution to this conflict, I draw on ideas developed by Paul Thorn and John Pollock. First, I argue that Kyburg and Teng’s solution to the conflict of narrowness and precision leads to unreasonable direct inference probabilities. I then show that Thorn’s recent solution to the conflict leads to unreasonable direct inference probabilities. Based on my analysis of Thorn’s approach, I propose a natural distribution for a Bayesian analysis of the data directly obtained from studying members of the narrowest reference class.     

Effect of anxiety on behavioural pattern separation in humans

Behavioural pattern separation (BPS), the ability to distinguish among similar stimuli based on subtle physical differences, has been used to study the mechanism underlying stimulus generalisation. Fear overgeneralisation is often observed in individuals with posttraumatic stress disorder and other anxiety disorders. However, the relationship between anxiety and BPS remains unclear. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of anxiety (threat of shock) on BPS, which was assessed across separate encoding and retrieval sessions. Images were encoded/retrieved during blocks of threat or safety in a 2?×?2 factorial design. During retrieval, participants indicated whether images were new, old, or altered. Better accuracy was observed for altered images encoded during periods of threat compared to safety, but only if those images were also retrieved during periods of safety. These results suggest that overgeneralisation in anxiety may be due to altered pattern separation.     

On being guided – a typology of career guidance in EU discourses*

With this article we want to illustrate how the central publications of the European Union legitimate a role of Career Guidance Services (CGS) that help in establishing a desired form of social order. Using the Sociology of Knowledge Approach to Discourse, we reconstructed four typical metaphorical conceptualisations of CGS that go along with desirable and taken-for-granted subject positions. The results reveal the assigned active role of CGS in establishing a specific vision of and in transforming the European society. We conclude by outlining the ways in which critique is expressed within the discourse and by highlighting the inherent ambivalences of these practices of critique.     

Ch-Ch-Ch-changes: How Action Phase Functional Leadership,Team Human Capital,and Interim vs. Permanent Leader Status Impact Post-transition Team Performance

This study addresses the following: (1) does a team leader change along with the quality of the team’s human capital affect post-change team performance?; (2) is functional leadership of the team’s human capital a driver of post-change team performance?; and (3) should interim vs. permanent leaders manage the team’s human capital differently? We analyzed archival data from Major League Baseball teams who had undergone an in-season manager change (N = 129). Team performance improved after a leader change, and the quality of the team’s strategic and non-strategic core human capital were positively related to post-change performance. New leaders who engaged in more active functional leadership of the strategic core human capital enhanced the positive effects of human capital quality. Additionally, active functional leadership enhanced the positive effects of strategic core human capital for interim replacement leaders, but not for permanent replacement leaders. This study extends theory and practice on the importance of functional team leadership and human capital following a leader transition. As such, our results provide actionable knowledge for organizations and managers who are part of leadership transitions. This empirical study leverages a unique sample to provide insights into the implications of team leader transitions. The results of this study shed light on the impact that leader transitions which involve “interim” and “permanent” replacements may have on post-transition team performance and how these different types of leaders should leverage the inherent human capital that exists within the team.     

Pre-existence and universal salvation – the Origenian renaissance in early modern Cambridge

ABSTRACT

The Letter of Resolution Concerning Origen and the Chief of His Opinions, published anonymously in London in 1661, is the chief testimony of the renaissance of Origen in early modern Cambridge. Probably authored by George Rust, the later Bishop of Dromore in Ireland, it is the first defence of Origenism, and delineates a rational theology based upon the unshakable foundation of God’s first attribute, his goodness. Trespassing and falling away from God’s goodness, the souls forfeit their original ethereal bodies or ‘vehicles’ and come to inhabit lesser ones made of air and earth. Making responsible use of their freedom, however, they may climb up the ontological ladder again. Rust’s rational theodicy with its stress on God’s universal goodness and the pre-existent soul’s free will is a key document of the Cambridge Platonists’ deeply Origenian philosophy of religion.     

The Repeated Evaluation Technique (RET). A method to capture dynamic effects of innovativeness and attractiveness

Innovativeness is defined as ‘originality by virtue of introducing new ideas’. Thus, innovative designs often break common visual habits and are evaluated as relatively unattractive at first sight (Leder & Carbon, 2005 ). In most empirical studies, attractiveness is measured only once. These measures do not capture the dynamic aspects of innovation. This paper presents a dynamic procedure, the Repeated Evaluation Technique (RET), that improves the validity of attractiveness evaluations. RET simulates time and exposure effects of everyday life. Using RET, we investigated the appreciation of different car designs varying in innovativeness and curvature. While the mere exposure theory (Zajonc, 1968 ) would predict a general increase of liking in increasing exposure, RET revealed dissociate effects depending on innovativeness. Only innovative designs showed an increase in attractiveness. Low innovative designs were rated as being relatively attractive in the beginning, but did not profit from elaboration due to RET. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Favorable Job Conditions and Perceived Support: The Role of Organizations and Supervisors1

Two studies were conducted to examine the linkages between favorable intrinsically (IS) and extrinsically satisfying (ES) job conditions, and perceived support from the organization (POS) and the supervisor (PSS). Using a sample of 427 employees, Study 1 showed through a longitudinal design that, controlling for PSS, both favorablc IS and ES job conditions exerted a significant effect on POS, while only favorable IS job conditions contributed to PSS when the effects of POS were controlled for. Study 2, conducted with a sample of 292 employees, showed that the organization's discretionary control over IS job conditions moderated the relationship between IS job conditions and POS, while supervisor's control over IS job conditions moderated the relationship between IS job conditions and PSS.     

Aggregating Sets of Judgments: Two Impossibility Results Compared1

The ``doctrinal paradox'' or ``discursive dilemma'' shows that propositionwise majority voting over the judgments held by multiple individuals on some interconnected propositions can lead to inconsistent collective judgments on these propositions. List and Pettit (2002) have proved that this paradox illustrates a more general impossibility theorem showing that there exists no aggregation procedure that generally produces consistent collective judgments and satisfies certain minimal conditions. Although the paradox and the theorem concern the aggregation of judgments rather than preferences, they invite comparison with two established results on the aggregation of preferences: the Condorcet paradox and Arrow's impossibility theorem. We may ask whether the new impossibility theorem is a special case of Arrow's theorem, or whether there are interesting disanalogies between the two results. In this paper, we compare the two theorems, and show that they are not straightforward corollaries of each other. We further suggest that, while the framework of preference aggregation can be mapped into the framework of judgment aggregation, there exists no obvious reverse mapping. Finally, we address one particular minimal condition that is used in both theorems – an independence condition – and suggest that this condition points towards a unifying property underlying both impossibility results.