Who will win Wimbledon? The recognition heuristic in predicting sports events

Goldstein and Gigerenzer ( 2002 ) described the recognition heuristic as a fast, frugal, and effective decision strategy. However, most studies concerning the recognition heuristic have been conducted in static domains, that is, in domains where it could plausibly be argued that relevant variables stay relatively constant. Yet the question is whether the heuristic would also work in dynamic environments where the quality of the actors rises and falls, such as in sports. We tested performance of the recognition heuristic in a dynamic environment and used it to predict the outcomes of tennis matches in Wimbledon 2003. Recognition data of amateur tennis players and laypeople was used to build recognition rankings. These rankings correlated with official rankings and led to at least as good predictions. Simulations of individual choices showed high recognition validities of both amateurs (0.73) and laypeople (0.67). In a second study the recognition heuristic correctly predicted 90% of actual individual choices. Overall, the recognition heuristic may be effectively generalized to dynamic environments. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Stereotypes and implicit social comparison: Shifts in comparison-group focus

Stereotypes affect how people understand implicit comparisons. In two studies, people judged the comparison implied by a statement (e.g., “Math is easy for me,” “I’m really aggressive”) made by an African-American, White, or Asian-American male. Counter-stereotypic comments, such as the African-American saying he was “bad” at basketball, caused participants to think the target was comparing himself to his narrow ingroup; stereotypic statements caused people to infer that the comparison group was broader. When compared to a fixed standard (all people in USA), evidence that people used stereotypes consistently emerged. Whether motivated or not, by narrowing the comparison standard when presented with a counter-stereotypic case, participants constructed an understanding of the target that protected the stereotype from challenge.     

Practical Adaptations of Cognitive Processing Therapy with Bosnian Refugees: Implications for Adapting Practice to a Multicultural Clientele

Recent findings suggest that established psychological treatments for PTSD are effective for diverse populations, including war refugees who have experienced multiple and severe losses, deprivations, hardships, and atrocities. Treating non-English-speaking traumatized refugees requires the clinician to overcome linguistic and various cultural dissimilarities with clients that complicate effective engagement. Examples of clinical adaptations for Bosnian clients are presented along with a discussion of the client’s and therapist’s relationship to the larger service delivery system.     

Same,same — but different: On the use of Navon derived measures of global/local processing in studies of face processing

Some studies have reported a significant correlation between face discrimination/recognition ability and indexes of global/local processing derived from the Navon paradigm. Other studies, however, have failed to find such a relationship. In this paper we examine three aspects related to the Navon paradigm that may have contributed to this discrepancy but which have been largely neglected: (i) the use of different types of compound stimuli across studies, (ii) differences between studies in the type of index derived from the Navon paradigm, and (iii) the reliability of these indexes. In a Navon experiment comparing performance with compound letters and compound shapes in normal participants, we find little consistency both within and across participants in how they perform with these stimulus types, despite the fact that both stimulus types give rise to the typical effects. In addition we find that many of the Navon derived indexes of global/local effects used in studies examining face processing have low reliability and do not measure the same aspects of global/local processing. Echoing the results from the normal participants, we also find little consistency in how a congenital prosopagnosic performs in the Navon paradigm. With compound letters, she responds much faster to local than to global aspects of the stimuli; a pattern not seen in a single of the normal participants. With compound shapes, however, she exhibits no such abnormality. These findings question the validity of the conclusions in studies relating Navon derived indexes of global/local processing to face processing.     

Reversing the truth effect: learning the interpretation of processing fluency in judgments of truth

Repeated statements receive higher truth ratings than new statements. Given that repetition leads to greater experienced processing fluency, the author proposes that fluency is used in truth judgments according to its ecological validity. Thus, the truth effect occurs because people learn that fluency and truth tend to be positively correlated. Three experiments tested this notion. Experiment 1 replicated the truth effect by directly manipulating processing fluency; Experiment 2 reversed the effect by manipulating the correlation between fluency and truth in a learning phase. Experiment 3 generalized this reversal by showing a transfer of a negative correlation between perceptual fluency (due to color contrast) and truth to truth judgments when fluency is due to prior exposure (i.e., repetition).     

Associative symmetry versus independent associations in the memory for object-location associations

The formation of associations between objects and locations is a vital aspect of episodic memory. More specifically, remembering the location where one experienced an object and, vice versa, the object one encountered at a specific location are both important elements for the memory of an event. Whether episodic associations are holistic representations of individual components or whether there are unidirectional, separately modifiable connections between them has been investigated nearly exclusively using verbal stimuli. A preliminary conclusion concerning this controversy is that verbal associations are, at least, highly correlated (M. J. Kahana, 2002). This theoretical debate, which in the past has undergone a major empirical effort, is still of relevance for the concurrent global matching models of associative memory (S. E. Clark & S. D. Gronlund, 1996). The authors used variations of a novel object-location learning paradigm to complement the accumulated evidence regarding the nature of episodic associations.     

Studienbezogene Belastungen, Lebensqualität und Beziehungserleben bei Medizinstudenten

In a cross-sectional study of medical students we examined educational strains, health feeling, and relationship patterns. Work stress was measured using the questionnaire by Jurkat et al., health-related quality of life was measured using the Short Form- (SF-)36 Health Survey, and relationship patterns to the partner as well as to a friend were mapped using“Beziehungsmusterfragebogen“ (BeMus). Study stress was assessed as being high by 60% of the students. Consequently, 39% had not enough time for their partners und 29% had no time for own interests. The mental health averaged significantly below the norm. A high workload and discontent correlated with aggressiveness, especially in the partnership, whereas loving care towards the partner or friend correlated with a high level of satisfaction and a lower strain level. Therefore, an improvement of psychosocial competence in medical students as well as a practice-oriented preparation for the profession is needed.     

How writing system and age influence spatial representations of actions: a developmental, cross-linguistic study

Recently, researchers reported a bias for placing agents predominantly on the left side of pictures. Both hemispheric specialization and cultural preferences have been hypothesized to be the origin of this bias. To evaluate these hypotheses, we conducted a study with participants exposed to different reading and writing systems: Germans, who use a left-to-right system, and Israelis, who use a right-to-left system. In addition, we manipulated the degree of exposure to the writing systems by testing preschoolers and adults. Participants heard agent-first or recipient-first sentences and were asked to draw the content of the sentences or to arrange transparencies of protagonists and objects such that their arrangement depicted the sentences. Although preschool-age children in both countries showed no directional bias, adults manifested a bias that was consistent with the writing system of their language. These results support the cultural hypothesis regarding the origin of spatial-representational biases.     

Comparison of treatment seeking compulsive buyers in Germany and the United States

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this pilot study was to compare a German (Bavaria) and an American (North Dakota) sample of women suffering from compulsive buying. METHOD: Thirty-eight German and 39 American female compulsive buyers were screened with the Compulsive Buying Scale (CBS), and the Yale-Brown Obsessive Compulsive Scale-Shopping Version (Y-BOCS-SV) prior to entering a group treatment study. Psychiatric co-morbidity was assessed with the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV Axis I disorders (SCID). RESULTS: There were no statistically significant differences between the German sample and the American sample with regard to age (mean 43.7 and 45 years, respectively), and with regard to the scores on the CBS and the Y-BOCS-SV. A high lifetime co-morbidity rate with Axis I disorders, especially mood disorders, anxiety disorders, substance use disorders, OCD, and binge eating disorder was detected in both samples. Almost all participants met criteria for at least one lifetime Axis I disorder. However, German compulsive buyers showed significantly higher current prevalence rates of any affective disorder, and higher current and lifetime prevalence rates of any anxiety disorder and somatoform disorder. In addition, German compulsive buyers were significantly more likely to have more than one Axis I disorder. CONCLUSION: The groups did not differ with regard to age and with regard to the severity of compulsive buying and showed a high co-morbidity with Axis I disorders. However, the German compulsive buying sample presented with significantly more psychiatric co-morbidity compared to the American sample. Further research is needed to provide a better understanding of this disorder in general and cross-culturally.