Additivity and expected utility in risky multiattribute preferences

This experiment analyzed human preferences among even chance gambles for commodity bundles. The purpose of the experiment was to test several independence assumptions that distinguish between models for risky multiattribute preferences. In particular, the additivity and the expected utility part of the additive expected utility model were tested symmetrically. The degree and form of model violations were established, and the effects of instructions and of response modes were examined. All independence assumptions were violated by a bias to prefer a gamble or a commodity bundle that was previously matched against a standard. Systematic and strong violations that superseded this bias questioned the validity of the additive expected utility model. In violation of the additivity part of that model subjects consistently preferred the gamble with more balanced outcomes when comparing gambles with identical marginal probability distributions. This trend, called multiattribute risk aversion, was independent of subjects' single attribute risk attitude. Instructions and response modes had no noticeable impacts on these response patterns.     

Choice reaction time with a random foreperiod

Choice reaction latencies were measured at three different a priori probabilities for two stimulus alternatives. Unlike the results of some other studies, the mean latency of a given response was nearly the same whether the response was correct or incorrect. The discriminable stimuli were a 1000- or a 1700-Hz tone presented at 70 dB SPL. Latencies and standard deviations, based on about 17,000 observations, are reported for three observers. The data are compared with predictions of the optimum sequential model of Wald and Stone and two modifications of that random-walk model, one proposed by Link and Heath and the other proposed by Laming. Fast-guess analyses were also carried out. The three-parameter version of either the sequential or the modified random-walk models provided reasonably accurate predictions of the mean data for each observer. The parameters estimated by the fast-guess analysis were unrealistic. There are three obvious differences between this experiment and most previous choice reaction-time experiments. First is stimulus modality#x2014;we used an auditory signal, whereas most of the previous studies used a visual signal. Second, the observers practiced more in this experiment than in most previous experiments. Finally, there was a random foreperiod with a heavy penalty for anticipations. One or more of these factors is the probable reason for the discrepancy between our results and those of previous studies.     

Structuring of early reaching movements: a longitudinal study

Reaches, performed by 5 infants, recorded at 19 weeks of age and every third week thereafter until 31 weeks of age, were studied quantitatively. Earlier findings about action units were confirmed. At all ages studied, movements were structured into phases of acceleration and deceleration. Reaching trajectories were found to be relatively straight within these units and to change direction between them. It was also found that at all ages, there was generally one dominating transport unit in each reach. The structuring of reaching movements changed in four important ways during the period studied. First, the sequential structuring became more systematic with age, with the dominating transport unit beginning the movement. Second, the duration of the transport unit became longer and covered a larger proportion of the approach. Third, the number of action units decreased with age, approaching the two-phase structure of adult reaching. Finally, reaching trajectories became straighter with age.     

Poisson signal-detection theory: Link between threshold models and the Gaussian assumption

The Gaussian model of signal detection cannot fit asymmetric data as long as the variances of the distributions are kept equal. It is therefore common practice to assume unequal variances in order to fit these data. But this assumption leads to the well-known crossover problem. The present paper provides new arguments for the abandonment of the Gaussian model with unequal variances. In its stead, this paper reevaluates multiple-parallel-threshold models. In particular, the Poisson model turns out to be very useful: it can handle data with any degree of asymmetry, giving a reasonable interpretation of the two parameters of the receiver-operating characteristic. The three-state-threshold model (Krantz, 1969) is given a new interpretation in light of the Poisson model. The slope of Poisson double-probability plots turns out to be much closer to unity than is predicted by the Gaussian approximation.     

Prophylactic psychiatry

The great contributions of Gantt to the problems of prophylactic psychiatry are pointed out. The author reviews his experiences with a 30-year follow-up of a population of 1800 persons. Over the 30 years, there appeared to be a 50% increase of neuroses, which raises great problems for mental health services. The Berlevåg population was offered optimal psychiatric services. Behavior therapy of neuroses and drug treatment of depression may possibly have lowered the prevalence of mental disorders. Psychophysiologic tests were used in the project. It is hoped that such tests may be utilized for early detection and treatment of mental disorders.     

Differential effects of person in the dog and in the human

People have marked effects on dog’s heart rate, with great individual variations for different persons. Apparently people to which the dog is attached have the greatest effect upon heart rate. Replications of the animal experiments using the psychotherapist and two other people revealed no effects upon the heart rate of a schizophrenic human. In the human the effects of people are probably best demonstrated in connection with verbal communication.