Overconfidence and underconfidence: When and why people underestimate (and overestimate) the competition

It is commonly held that people believe themselves to be better than others, especially for outcomes under their control. However, such overconfidence is not universal. This paper presents evidence showing that people believe that they are below average on skill-based tasks that are difficult. A simple Bayesian explanation can account for these effects and for their robustness: On skill-based tasks, people generally have better information about themselves than about others, so their beliefs about others’ performances tend to be more regressive (thus less extreme) than their beliefs about their own performances. This explanation is tested in two experiments that examine these effects’ robustness to experience, feedback, and market forces. The discussion explores the implications for strategic planning in general and entrepreneurial entry in particular.     

Not so above average after all: When people believe they are worse than average and its implications for theories of bias in social comparison

Recent research calls into question the generally accepted conclusion that people believe themselves to be better than average. This paper reviews the new theories that have been proposed to explain the fact that better-than-average effects are isolated to common behaviors and abilities, and that people believe themselves to be below average with respect to rare behaviors and uncommon abilities. These new theories are then used to revisit prior findings of better-than-average effects. When viewed in light of recent work, the evidence suggests that prior findings overstated the degree to which people engage in self-enhancement by believing that they are better than others when in fact they are not. Prior studies have often confounded desirability with commonness and have used subjective measures of comparative judgment that capitalize on people’s tendency to conflate relative with absolute self-evaluation.     

An experimental analysis of hypochondriasis

Hypochondriasis (HC) involves preoccupation with fears of having a serious medical illness based on the misinterpretation of benign bodily perturbations. Individuals with HC also perform behaviors such as checking and reassurance-seeking presumably to reduce health-related fears. Experimental behavioral analyses of HC symptoms, however, are lacking. In the present study, 27 patients with HC were exposed to personally relevant health-related stimuli under one of two conditions: (a) subsequently performing safety-seeking behaviors (e.g., checking) (n=14) or (b) subsequently being instructed not to perform such behaviors (n=13). In both groups, subjective anxiety and urges to perform safety behaviors were monitored for 1h. Results indicated that exposure to the personally relevant health trigger provoked anxiety and urges to perform safety behaviors. For patients who performed such behaviors, these feelings were reduced. For patients who did not, a more gradual reduction of anxiety and urges was observed. Findings are discussed in terms of the conceptualization and treatment of HC behavior, and are relevant to HC's possible relationship to panic and obsessive-compulsive disorder.     

Infants perceive human point-light displays as solid forms

While five-month-old infants show orientation-specific sensitivity to changes in the motion and occlusion patterns of human point-light displays, it is not known whether infants are capable of binding a human representation to these displays. Furthermore, it has been suggested that infants do not encode the same physical properties for humans and material objects. To explore these issues we tested whether infants would selectively apply the principle of solidity to upright human displays. In the first experiment infants aged six and nine months were repeatedly shown a human point-light display walking across a computer screen up to 10 times or until habituated. Next, they were repeatedly shown the walking display passing behind an in-depth representation of a table, and finally they were shown the human display appearing to pass through the table top in violation of the solidity of the hidden human form. Both six- and nine-month-old infants showed significantly greater recovery of attention to this final phase. This suggests that infants are able to bind a solid vertical form to human motion. In two further control experiments we presented displays that contained similar patterns of motion but were not perceived by adults as human. Six- and nine-month-old infants did not show recovery of attention when a scrambled display or an inverted human display passed through the table. Thus, the binding of a solid human form to a display in only seems to occur for upright human motion. The paper considers the implications of these findings in relation to theories of infants' developing conceptions of objects, humans and animals.     

Second-order beliefs about intention and children's attributions of sociomoral judgment

Predicting how another person will evaluate the intention underlying an action involves consideration of second-order mental states. Children (ages 5-10 years) and college students (N=105) predicted an observer's belief about an actor's intention and evaluated the actor from both their own perspectives and the perspective of the observer. Younger children were more likely than older children and adults to attribute a belief to the observer that mismatched the actor's prior intention. Attributed beliefs about intention were more likely to match negative prior intentions than to match positive prior intentions and were also more likely to match prior intentions when the observer knew the actor's prior intention than when the observer did not know the actor's prior intention. The judgments attributed to the observer were based on the beliefs about intention attributed to the observer, showing use of second-order mental states to infer another's sociomoral judgments.     

Experiencing Body Worlds: Voyeurism, Education, or Enlightenment?

Until the advent of plastinated cadavers, few outside the medical professions have had firsthand experience with human corpses. Such opportunities are now available at the Body Worlds exhibits of Gunther von Hagens. After an overview of these exhibits, we explore visitor responses as revealed in comment books available upon exiting the exhibit. Cultural, philosophical, and religious issues raised in the comments serve as a microcosm of society at large. The conclusion considers the challenge of such exhibits in introducing the public to science education, notes the image of the body as machine-so prevalent in the West-reflected in visitor comments, and finds hope that the exhibits promote, for many visitors, a sense of community among all humankind.     

Accuracy of Self-Reported Personal History of Cancer in an Outpatient Breast Center

The self-reporting of cancer history is becoming increasingly important, as it frequently guides medical decision-making. We studied the accuracy of personal cancer history using a self-administered questionnaire, comparing the results with the Tumor Registry at our institution. Among 39,662 records, we identified 3614 women with a single cancer in the Tumor Registry who reported none or one cancer on their questionnaire. The sensitivity in self-reporting cancers was 85.7%, ranging from 92.1% for breast cancer to 42.9% for leukemia. The accuracy for breast cancer and Hodgkin's Lymphoma was significantly better than other cancers (p=0.00027, CI: 1.4–3.88). Analysis of patient's characteristics showed that Caucasians reported breast cancer more accurately than Asian/Pacific Islanders (p=0.008), and those with Jewish ancestry more accurately than non-Jewish (p=0.0435). These results will help us to improve data collection and thus improve medical decision-making.     

Meditation,mindfulness and cognitive flexibility

This study investigated the link between meditation, self-reported mindfulness and cognitive flexibility as well as other attentional functions. It compared a group of meditators experienced in mindfulness meditation with a meditation-naïve control group on measures of Stroop interference and the “d2-concentration and endurance test”. Overall the results suggest that attentional performance and cognitive flexibility are positively related to meditation practice and levels of mindfulness. Meditators performed significantly better than non-meditators on all measures of attention. Furthermore, self-reported mindfulness was higher in meditators than non-meditators and correlations with all attention measures were of moderate to high strength. This pattern of results suggests that mindfulness is intimately linked to improvements of attentional functions and cognitive flexibility. The relevance of these findings for mental balance and well-being are discussed.     

Modulating the sense of agency with external cues

We investigate the processes underlying the feeling of control over one’s actions (“sense of agency”). Sense of agency may depend on internal motoric signals, and general inferences about external events. We used priming to modulate the sense of agency for voluntary and involuntary movements, by modifying the content of conscious thought prior to moving. Trials began with the presentation of one of two supraliminal primes, which corresponded to the effect of a voluntary action participants subsequently made. The perceived interval between movement and effect was used as an implicit measure of sense of agency. Primes modulated perceived intervals for both voluntary and involuntary movements, but the modulation was greatest for involuntary movements. A second experiment showed that this modulation depended on prime–movement (temporal) contiguity. We propose that sense of agency is based on a combination of internal motoric signals and external sensory evidence about the source of actions and effects.