One-year prediction of cognitive decline following cognitive-stimulation from real-world data

Clinical evidence based on real-world data (RWD) is accumulating exponentially providing larger sample sizes available, which demand novel methods to deal with the enhanced heterogeneity of the data. Here, we used RWD to assess the prediction of cognitive decline in a large heterogeneous sample of participants being enrolled with cognitive stimulation, a phenomenon that is of great interest to clinicians but that is riddled with difficulties and limitations. More precisely, from a multitude of neuropsychological Training Materials (TMs), we asked whether was possible to accurately predict an individual's cognitive decline one year after being tested. In particular, we performed longitudinal modelling of the scores obtained from 215 different tests, grouped into 29 cognitive domains, a total of 124,610 instances from 7902 participants (40% male, 46% female, 14% not indicated), each performing an average of 16 tests. Employing a machine learning approach based on ROC analysis and cross-validation techniques to overcome overfitting, we show that different TMs belonging to several cognitive domains can accurately predict cognitive decline, while other domains perform poorly, suggesting that the ability to predict decline one year later is not specific to any particular domain, but is rather widely distributed across domains. Moreover, when addressing the same problem between individuals with a common diagnosed label, we found that some domains had more accurate classification for conditions such as Parkinson's disease and Down syndrome, whereas they are less accurate for Alzheimer's disease or multiple sclerosis. Future research should combine similar approaches to ours with standard neuropsychological measurements to enhance interpretability and the possibility of generalizing across different cohorts.     

Predictors of relationship satisfaction during the COVID-19 pandemic

Prior work and theory suggest many vulnerabilities, stressors, and adaptive processes shape relationship satisfaction. In the current research, we used machine learning to understand which constructs have greater predictive importance for perceived changes in satisfaction since the pandemic began and satisfaction over the prior week. In a large sample collected at the beginning of the pandemic (N = 1873; Study 1), relationship processes were most predictive, explaining up to 70% of variance in satisfaction. Feeling appreciative of one's partner and being satisfied with quality time spent with one's partner were consistently top predictors of satisfaction. We also examined whether these important predictors were associated with changes in relationship satisfaction across the first year of the pandemic in a longitudinal subsample (N = 618; Study 2). Appreciation and satisfaction with quality time were associated with high and relatively stable relationship satisfaction over time.     

Dispossessing Defeat

Higher-order evidence can make an agent doubt the reliability of her reasoning. When this happens, it seems rational for the agent to adopt a cautious attitude towards her original conclusion, even in cases where the higher-order evidence is misleading and the agent's original reasons were actually perfectly good. One may think that recoiling to a cautious attitude in the face of misleading self-doubt involves a failure to properly respond to one's reasons. My aim is to show that this is not so. My proposal is that (misleading) higher-order evidence can undermine the agent's possession of her first-order reasons, constituting what I call a dispossessing defeater. After acquiring the higher-order evidence, the agent is no longer in a position to rely competently on the relevant first-order considerations as reasons for her original conclusion, so that such reasons stop being available to her (even if they remain as strong as in the absence of the higher-order evidence). In this way, an agent with misleading higher-order evidence can adopt a cautious stance towards her original conclusion, while properly responding to the set of reasons that she possesses–a set that is reduced due to the acquisition of higher-order dispossessing defeaters.     

Akrasia and the Desire to Become Someone Else: Venturinha on Moral Matters

Philosophia - This paper discusses practical akrasia from the perspective of the sophisticated form of moral subjectivism that can be derived from Nuno Venturinha’s (2018) remarks on moral...     

The Spanish version of the Vividness of Visual Imagery Questionnaire: factor structure and internal consistency reliability

We examined the factor structure and internal consistency reliability of the Spanish version of the Vividness of Visual Imagery Questionnaire which was applied to a sample of 850 secondary school students. Factor structure investigated by principal components analysis, followed by varimax orthogonal rotation, indicated that a single factor explained 37% of the variance. The internal consistency of the questionnaire was good (Cronbach alpha=.88). We conclude that the Spanish version of the questionnaire, like the English version, has a single factor and high internal consistency reliability.     

Transfer across unconditioned stimuli in serial feature discrimination training

The transfer of conditioned modulation across conditioned stimuli (CS) and unconditioned stimuli (US) was examined in 3 experiments that used Pavlovian appetitive training procedures with rats. In Experiment 1, after training in a positive patterning discrimination (X-->A+/X-/A-), X increased conditioned responding elicited by another trained-then-extinguished CS as long as that CS had been trained with the same US as was used in discrimination training. In Experiment 2, after training with a feature-negative discrimination (X-->A-/A+), X inhibited conditioned responding elicited by another trained-then-extinguished CS as long as that CS had been trained with the same US. Experiments 1 and 2 used a between-groups design, whereas Experiment 3 used a more powerful within-groups design. In Experiment 3, rats were trained in a feature-positive discrimination (X-->A+/A-). In transfer tests, X increased conditioned responding elicited by another CS trained then extinguished with the same US from training. This increase was greater than the X increased conditioned responding elicited by another CS trained then extinguished with a different US from training. The results supported the suggestion that features trained in serial discrimination tasks influence behavior indirectly by transiently raising or lowering the threshold for activation of the US representations by its target stimuli and by any other stimuli that may be associated with that US. Other interpretations of the findings were also considered.     

Chances and frequencies in probabilistic reasoning: rejoinder to Hoffrage,Gigerenzer, Krauss,and Martignon

Do individuals unfamiliar with probability and statistics need a specific type of data in order to draw correct inferences about uncertain events? Girotto and Gonzalez (Cognition 78 (2001) 247) showed that naive individuals solve frequency as well as probability problems, when they reason extensionally, in particular when probabilities are represented by numbers of chances. Hoffrage, Gigerenzer, Krauss, and Martignon (Cognition 84 (2002) 343) argued that numbers of chances are natural frequencies disguised as probabilities, though lacking the properties of true probabilities. They concluded that we failed to demonstrate that naive individuals can deal with true probabilities as opposed to natural frequencies. In this paper, we demonstrate that numbers of chances do represent probabilities, and that naive individuals do not confuse numbers of chances with frequencies. We conclude that there is no evidence for the claim that natural frequencies have a special cognitive status, and the evolutionary argument that the human mind is unable to deal with probabilities.     

The hippocampus and memory of verbal and pictorial material

Recognition of words and kaleidoscope pictures showed a double dissociation of left and right hippocampal activity using magnetic source imaging (MSI). MSI has advantages over alternative imaging techniques that measure hemodynamic changes for identifying regional changes in brain activity in real time and on an individual subject basis without the need for image subtraction. In this study, lists of words or kaleidoscope pictures were presented for memorization followed by tests of list items and foils during which brain activity was recorded. There was greater activation in the left than the right hippocampus with abstract nouns (e.g., relief) and greater activation in the right than the left hippocampus with kaleidoscope pictures. This dissociation was evident on a case by case basis. This study demonstrates the specialization of the two medial temporal lobe (MTL) regions, including the hippocampi, for mnemonic processing of verbal and pictorial items that are difficult to encode verbally.