The effects of averaging subjective probability estimates between and within judges

The average probability estimate of J > 1 judges is generally better than its components. Two studies test 3 predictions regarding averaging that follow from theorems based on a cognitive model of the judges and idealizations of the judgment situation. Prediction 1 is that the average of conditionally pairwise independent estimates will be highly diagnostic, and Prediction 2 is that the average of dependent estimates (differing only by independent error terms) may be well calibrated. Prediction 3 contrasts between- and within-subject averaging. Results demonstrate the predictions' robustness by showing the extent to which they hold as the information conditions depart from the ideal and as J increases. Practical consequences are that (a) substantial improvement can be obtained with as few as 2-6 judges and (b) the decision maker can estimate the nature of the expected improvement by considering the information conditions.     

Dyskinesias differentiate autistic disorder from catatonia

Autistic disorder and catatonia are neuropsychiatric syndromes defined by impairments in social interaction, communication, and restricted, stereotypical motor routines. Assessments of children with these disorders are typically restricted in scope by the patients' limited ability to comprehend directions. The authors performed systematic assessments of dyskinesias on six prepubertal boys with autistic disorder and mental retardation and on one adolescent male with catatonia to determine if this type of information could be routinely obtained. The boys with autistic disorder had more stereotypies and tics, a greater degree of akathisia and hyperactivity, and more compulsions than the adolescent with catatonia. Catatonia was associated with catalepsy and dystonic postures. The authors conclude that the diagnostic accuracy and specificity of neuropsychiatric syndromes may be enhanced by the systematic assessment of the dyskinesias associated with each condition.     

The use of genetic test information in insurance: The argument from indistinguishability reconsidered

In the bioethical literature, discrimination in insurance on the basis of genetic risk factors detected by genetic testing has been defended and opposed on various ethical grounds. One important argument in favour of the practice is offered by those who believe that it is not possible to distinguish between genetic and non-genetic information, at least not for practical policy purposes such as insurance decision-making. According to the argument from indistinguishability, the use of genetic test information for insurance purposes should be permitted, because genetic test information is no different from non-genetic medical information in any relevant respect, therefore it would be inconsistent to prohibit the former whilst permitting the latter. This paper discusses and defends this argument and suggests a new, more tenable foundation.     

Editorial

Editorial Commentary

Editorial     

Mean response times, variability, and skew in the responding of ADHD children: a response time distributional approach

Response time (RT) distributions from three fixed foreperiod conditions (2, 4, and 8 s) in a warned four-choice RT task were obtained for a group of boys with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, combined type (ADHD; n = 17) and for two groups of normal control boys (age-matched, n = 18, and younger-aged, n = 10). Quantitative measures of distributional shape were derived by fitting the ex-Gaussian distributional model to the individual RT data. Statistical results indicate that the ADHD distributions differ from the age-matched control distributions with respect to the size of the tail (larger for the ADHD boys), but differ from the younger control distributions with respect to the location of the leading edge (slower for the younger control boys). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) results reveal that the ex-Gaussian exponential component is highly diagnostic of the ADHD boys.     

"You have to have somebody watching your back, and if thats God, then thats mighty big": the church's role in the resilience of inner-city youth

This study was designed to explore Freeman's (1986) finding that the institution that made the greatest contribution to male African-American youths' socioeconomic success was the church. Thirty-two African-American, Haitian-American, and Latino male and female teenagers--16 drawn from inner-city Protestant churches and 16 comparison teenagers from the same communities-were interviewed. The interviews revealed that churched teenagers were less stressed and less likely to have psychological problems than were teenagers in the comparison group. They also appeared more likely to be living with both biological parents, less likely to have a family member on welfare, and more likely to have a job when compared with the other teenagers. They described the church as being central to their lives and as having multiple functions, many of which have been identified in the resilience literature as contributing to positive developmental outcomes. Results are interpreted in light of the transactional model, and recommendations are made, such as expanding the role of the church within these ethnic communities.     

Subjective organization and the visibility of illusory contours

The effects of the differential organization of a Necker cube on the perceived salience of an embedded illusory triangle were examined. Overall figural salience was greater when the triangle appeared to be localized on the front rather than the back cube face. Illusory contour salience also increased with increasing inducing area contrast and was greater when the figure was oriented on cardinal as compared to oblique coordinates. However, the latter effects were independent of perceived location within the cube. The finding that subjective organizational and structural factors influenced the perceived salience of the illusory figure but did not interact is consistent with van Tuijl and Leeuwenberg's (1982) suggestion that top-down and bottom-up determinants can operate independently in illusory contour perception.     

The task-specific nature of domain-general reasoning

This paper develops a theory of how interpretative processes constrain inferential performance on conditional reasoning tasks. Experiment 1 investigated the hypothesis that performance on common reasoning tasks is mediated by different interpretive variables. Necessity and sufficiency relations predicted performance on the conditional arguments task, whereas on the Wason task, performance was predicted by whether the conditional statement instantiated a deontic or a factual relation. Performance on the truth-table task was predicted by both sets of variables. Experiment 2 explored the mapping relation between interpretation, representation, and inference. It was observed that conditional responses to the Wason and arguments tasks were based on different representations of the conditional relationship. These data rule out a simple model of the interplay between interpretation and reasoning in which the interpretation of a statement is driven solely by its content, and instead, indicate that the interpretation of conditional relations is task-specific.     

Contrast effects do not underlie effects of preceding liquids on stop-consonant identification by humans

These experiments explored the claim by A. Lotto and K. Kluender (1998) that frequency contrast explains listeners' compensations for coarticulation in the case of liquid consonants coarticulating with following stops. Evidence of frequency contrast in experiments that tested for it directly was not found, but Lotto and Kluender's finding that high- and low-frequency precursor tones can produce contrastive effects on stop-consonant judgments were replicated. The effect depends on the amplitude relation of the tones to the third formant (F3) of the stops. This implies that the tones mask F3 information in the stop consonants. It is unknown whether liquids and following stops in natural speech are in an appropriate intensity relation for masking of the stop. A final experiment, exploiting the McGurk effect, showed compensation for coarticulation by listeners when neither frequency contrast nor masking can be the source of the compensations.     

Language-dependent recall of autobiographical memories

Two studies of autobiographical memory explored the hypothesis that memories become more accessible when the linguistic environment at retrieval matches the linguistic environment at encoding. In Experiment 1, Russian-English bilinguals were asked to recall specific life experiences in response to word prompts. The results supported the hypothesis of language-dependent recall: Participants retrieved more experiences from the Russian-speaking period of their lives when interviewed in Russian and more experiences from the English-speaking period of their lives when interviewed in English. In Experiment 2, the language of the interview was varied independently from the language of the word prompts. Both variables were found to influence autobiographical recall. These findings show that language at the time of retrieval, like other forms of context, plays a significant role in determining what will be remembered.