Developmental change in subjective probability during adolescence

The developmental change in subjective probability during adolescence, an important period for establishing the probability concept, was investigated. 75 Japanese adolescents, from 12 to 23 yr. of age, were asked to make probability judgments for a lottery under 15 conditions. Analysis showed that with increase in age their subjective probability came closer to the objective probability. Discussion of these results took into consideration recent studies on the development of the concept of probability.     

A quasi-nonmetric method for multidimensional scaling VIA an extended euclidean model

An Extended Two-Way Euclidean Multidimensional Scaling (MDS) model which assumes both common and specific dimensions is described and contrasted with the standard (Two-Way) MDS model. In this Extended Two-Way Euclidean model then stimuli (or other objects) are assumed to be characterized by coordinates onR common dimensions. In addition each stimulus is assumed to have a dimension (or dimensions) specific to it alone. The overall distance between objecti and objectj then is defined as the square root of the ordinary squared Euclidean distance plus terms denoting the specificity of each object. The specificity,s _j , can be thought of as the sum of squares of coordinates on those dimensions specific to objecti, all of which have nonzero coordinatesonly for objecti. (In practice, we may think of there being just one such specific dimension for each object, as this situation is mathematically indistinguishable from the case in which there are more than one.)We further assume that _ij =F(d _ij ) +e _ij where _ij is the proximity value (e.g., similarity or dissimilarity) of objectsi andj,d _ij is the extended Euclidean distance defined above, whilee _ij is an error term assumed i.i.d.N(0, ²).F is assumed either a linear function (in the metric case) or a monotone spline of specified form (in the quasi-nonmetric case). A numerical procedure alternating a modified Newton-Raphson algorithm with an algorithm for fitting an optimal monotone spline (or linear function) is used to secure maximum likelihood estimates of the paramstatistics) can be used to test hypotheses about the number of common dimensions, and/or the existence of specific (in addition toR common) dimensions.This approach is illustrated with applications to both artificial data and real data on judged similarity of nations.     

Threshold tracking for assessment of long-term adaptation and sensitization in pain perception

To assess temporal variations in the perception of "phasic" heat pain stimuli a psychophysical tracking procedure was developed that enables repeated assessment of the pain threshold at short intervals. This "double-tracking" procedure produces two tracking curves simultaneously, one that approaches the pain threshold gradually from above, the other from below. The threshold for phasic heat pain was measured in 80 tracking trials with stimuli at temperatures near the pain threshold. Concurrently, the threshold for "tonic" heat pain was determined after every 20 tracking trials with a stimulus adjustment procedure. Eleven healthy subjects (age: 26.4 yr. +/- 6.0) participated in 2 sessions each. Phasic stimulation near the pain threshold did not produce any trends in either of the two threshold measures. Hence there was no long-term adaptation or sensitization. However, there were random variations (random walks) in the tracking curves, which we interpret as resulting from a stochastic relationship between stimulus and sensation. In agreement with other reports, discrimination seemed to be better at painful than at nonpainful temperatures.     

Abnormal optokinetic and perceptual span parameters in cerebellar-vestibular dysfunction and related anxiety disorders

As prior studies indicated abnormal cerebellar-vestibular-based sensorimotor mechanisms and neurological and ENG diagnostic parameters in anxiety disorders and because ocular fixation and sequential scanning are cerebellar-vestibular-modulated, it appeared reasonable to measure these and related ocular functions in matched samples of anxiety-disordered and control subjects. In this study, the optokinetically-determined fixation, sequential scanning, and perceptual span capacities obtained by means of a newly revised blurring-speed method were significantly lower or impaired in 70 anxiety-disordered patients vs 70 controls. Such data supported further the hypothesis that there may be cerebellar-vestibular predispositions to anxiety disorders and the optokinetically-based tracking method may prove useful in separating a diverse array of CV-determined or related anxiety symptoms from those of other origins. However, independent validation as well as additional studies of anxiety disorders using larger samples vs random or "normal" controls are required before conclusions are justified.     

The individual interview in couples treatment

This paper describes the use of concurrent individual and conjoint sessions in couples psychotherapy. The introduction of these individual interviews is seen as supporting the individual changes which must be made to effect change in the structure of the relationship. The benefits of this interventive scheme in dynamically oriented couples' treatment will be illustrated through the presentation of case examples.     

Perceptions of the therapist in family therapy

Thirty-five families completed ratings describing their perceptions of their therapists. These ratings were then correlated with measures of outcome to assess whether there was a relationship between experiences of the therapist and treatment outcome. Further, the study addresses whether some family members' perceptions are more influential in affecting the course of treatment. The results showed that family members' perception of the therapist does have an impact on treatment outcome, but not all members affect the outcome equally. Further results and their implications are discussed.     

To link, to infer, to understand

A model of linkage in text processing is proposed: An external proposition and an inference belonging to one frame are superimposed to constitute understanding. A text containing four academic subjects was presented orally to students who recalled it in writing. After transforming the recalls into propositions they are entered into a nonmetric multidimensional scaling to yield a text space. The subjects' interest choices among items of the four aspects are scaled to render an interest space. The decomposition ob both as subspaces of a common space yields an angle as their overall similarity and indicates the degree of predictability from interests. As the aggregate of inferences shows directedness, correlated with volitional-motivational orientation, and inference base is assumed to intervene. It is concluded that recipients try to superimpose and thereby construct a primary stage of processing. This allows for a very general algorithm of parallel information processing (holographic thesis), perhaps constructing the properties we are used to. Motivated perception, knowledge influence, schema-directedness and contribution to coherence are rivalled out as an explanation of this process.     

Acquisition of strategies depending on the opponents' competence level

The development of problem-solving skills from novices to advanced subjects in dependence of the competence level of the opponent is examined in a two-person zero-sum game (Othello). In a repeated-measurement design 18 Ss. (6 Ss in 3 groups) played 10 games against one of three opponent-strategies (implemented on a computer): one "expertlike" strategy, which uses domain specific knowledge and local heuristics (minimax-algorithm with alpha-beta pruning); one "novicelike" strategy, in which global, domain independent problem solving strategies (means-ends analysis, goal-reduction) are implemented; and one strategy, which contradicts the supposed heuristics of the novices, but which results in a "weak" performance (minimization in move-selection). Contrary to our assumptions no significant effects of experience could be verified (win versus loss during single runs). An experience dependent differentiation of global problem solving strategies could not be shown for any of the groups. Neither could a general improving effect of the model for acquiring local, task specific heuristics be proved.