The intelligence community and the war on terror: the role of behavioral science

The United States intelligence community has been under intense scrutiny from both inside and outside in the aftermath of September 11. Post mortem assessments of intelligence breakdowns may judge the events as more predictable than was in fact the actual reality. In a troubled world, when threats to national security can materialize very quickly, the intelligence community must be able to effectively and swiftly develop and implement plans to prevent further terrorist attacks on the homeland. Numerous scenarios need to be considered for the management of crisis situations. Intelligence actions must make it more difficult for terrorists to strike at their targets. The war on terror must confront a new generation of enemies who threaten to attack the United States with weapons of mass destruction. This essay will focus on the role of behavioral science and how related reforms within the intelligence community could improve its capability to respond to a huge challenge.     

Stroop dilution but not word-processing dilution: evidence for attention capture

Stroop dilution refers to the observation that the impact of a color word on the naming of a color bar is reduced if another word-like object is displayed simultaneously. Recently, Brown, Roos-Gilbert, and Carr (1995) concluded that Stroop dilution is due to early-visual interference. This conclusion was evaluated in three experiments. Experiment 1 showed that, contrary to the predictions of an early-visual interference account, (a) diluters that are similar in terms of visual complexity induced different amounts of dilution and (b) the size of the dilution effect is proportional to the size of the Stroop interference effect when the diluters are used as single distractors. Experiments 2 and 3 revealed that when the position of the color bar is pre-cued, Stroop dilution disappears. We argue that these findings support Van der Heijden's (1992) attention-capture account of Stroop dilution.     

Back to the future

Significant components of psychoanalytic technique, and the theory that underlies it, seem to remain buried in our past, but are central to the growth of psychoanalysis as a treatment method based on understanding a patient's mind. By updating technique based on a theory of mind with structure, the author views the increasing freedom of the patient's mind as central to the curative process, and takes the position that in interpretive work, the analyst needs to pay more attention to the patient's capacity to meaningfully receive and integrate the analyst's interventions.     

Perceptions of adulthood among Anglo and Latino parents

The transition to adulthood presupposes that a developing adolescent acquires a set of characteristics that enables him or her to perform expected adult behaviors. There is a gap in the literature in identifying these expected behaviors as they pertain to different cultural and racial groups. To fill this gap, parent-generated indicators of adulthood were studied, including the beliefs, behaviors, and attitudes that are either common or specific to Anglo and Latino parents. College students at an urban university in the Los Angeles area were recruited to enlist their parents to complete a questionnaire. Equal numbers from each ethnic group were surveyed. The results of this study indicate that Anglo participants defined adulthood in terms of independence significantly more often than Latino participants. Furthermore, Latino participants defined adulthood in terms of event-related markers, such as marriage, significantly more often than Anglo participants. This research points to the need to define adulthood in ways that reflect the ethnic diversity of the United States. The authors express their thanks to Russell Espinoza, Ileana Garoz, Anna Rivera, Sandra Samayoa, Gabriella Chavira, Maria Hernandez, Angel Lahr, and Kevin Kim for their invaluable assistance. An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 1997 meeting of the Western Psychological Association, Seattle.     

Oedipal dynamics in panic disorder

Both research and clinical work have revealed factors that can lead to the onset and persistence of panic disorder. Preoedipal conflicts intensify the danger of oedipal longings for panic patients. Competition with the same-sex parent is linked with angry preoedipal fantasies and associated fears of disruption in attachments. Fantasies or actual successes can thus trigger panic episodes. Regression to a helpless, dependent state such as panic defends against the danger of aggressive, competitive fantasies and actual achievements. However, the regressive state can also be experienced as dangerous, and can be linked with frightening homosexual fantasies. A reactive aggressive oedipal stance can sometimes result, triggering escalating turmoil. The panic episode serves a series of compromise formations in dealing with these conflicted wishes.     

Elementary Classes in Basic Modal Logic

Dealing with topics of definability, this paper provides some interesting insights into the expressive power of basic modal logic. After some preliminary work it presents an abstract algebraic characterization of the elementary classes of basic modal logic, that is, of the classes of models that are definable by means of (sets of) basic modal formulas. Taking that for a start, the paper further contains characterization results for modal universal classes and modal positive classes.     

Causation in terms of production

Philosophical Studies - In this paper, we analyse actual causation in terms of production. The latter concept is made precise by a strengthened Ramsey Test semantics of conditionals: $$A \gg C$$...     

Examining psychokinesis: the interaction of human intention with random number generators--a meta-analysis

Séance-room and other large-scale psychokinetic phenomena have fascinated humankind for decades. Experimental research has reduced these phenomena to attempts to influence (a) the fall of dice and, later, (b) the output of random number generators (RNGs). The meta-analysis combined 380 studies that assessed whether RNG output correlated with human intention and found a significant but very small overall effect size. The study effect sizes were strongly and inversely related to sample size and were extremely heterogeneous. A Monte Carlo simulation revealed that the small effect size, the relation between sample size and effect size, and the extreme effect size heterogeneity found could in principle be a result of publication bias.     

A semiautomatic method for adding behavioral data to videotape records in combination with the Noldus Observer system

The Observer 3.0 (Noldus, 1991) was used as the base for a time-saving fine analysis of animal behavior. A PC controlled a shuttlebox and a shuttlebox control unit. Learning behavior was recorded on videotapes by an S-VHS camcorder with vertical interval time code (VITC), which was used to generate an observational data file (ODF). The observational system was enhanced by automatically recorded status signals from the PC as event markers on the soundtrack of the videotape. These signals were used to subdivide a training session into numbered trials during generation of the ODF. They were later used for a PC-aided fine analysis of behavioral events, such as attention responses (AR) and orienting responses (OR) during shuttlebox learning. In this way, a large number of both automatically inserted PC event markers and manually inserted, key-defined behavioral events were registered and analyzed effectively in a semiautomatic fashion. The system is illustrated with an analysis of shuttlebox avoidance data from gerbils (Meriones unguiculatus).