Geographic profiling: the fast,frugal, and accurate way

The current article addresses the ongoing debate about whether individuals can perform as well as actuarial techniques when confronted with real world, consequential decisions. A single experiment tested the ability of participants (N = 215) and an actuarial technique to accurately predict the residential locations of serial offenders based on information about where their crimes were committed. Results indicated that participants introduced to a ‘Circle’ or ‘Decay’ heuristic showed a significant improvement in the accuracy of predictions, and that their post‐training performance did not differ significantly from the predictions of one leading actuarial technique. Further analysis of individual performances indicated that approximately 50% of participants used appropriate heuristics that typically led to accurate predictions even before they received training, while nearly 75% improved their predictive accuracy once introduced to either of the two heuristics. Several possible explanations for participants' accurate performances are discussed and the practical implications for police investigations are highlighted. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dysregulated Motherhood: Exploring the Risk Features in a Mother’s Caregiving Representations

In the case of a mother with dysregulating attachment experiences and current enrolment in a parent-infant psychotherapy process, we explored which insecure, hostile/helpless, and prementalizing risk features were similar in her attachment and caregiving representations; which risk features were specific to her caregiving representations; and how these theory-defined features overlapped in detecting caregiving risks. Risk features in the attachment representations were assessed from the adult attachment interview and risk features in the caregiving representations from written psychotherapy notes. We found similar insecure (preoccupied and disorganized), prementalizing and hostile/helpless instances from both the attachment and the caregiving representations. However, confusion between self and child, greater variance in lapses into prementalizing, and specific and concrete fears and helplessness were unique to the caregiving representations. Hostile/helpless instances were found in tandem with almost all insecure and prementalizing instances, indicating this conceptualization captured risks in the caregiving representations most comprehensively. Fearful and helpless caregiving representations occurred somewhat independently from other risk conceptualizations, suggesting they need to be identified as independent phenomena. The results imply that detecting specific manifestations of intergenerational risks from caregiving representations is possible.     

Physician Aid-in-Dying and Suicide Prevention in Psychiatry: A Moral Crisis?

Involuntary psychiatric commitment for suicide prevention and physician aid-in-dying (PAD) in terminal illness combine to create a moral dilemma. If PAD in terminal illness is permissible, it should also be permissible for some who suffer from nonterminal psychiatric illness: suffering provides much of the justification for PAD, and the suffering in mental illness can be as severe as in physical illness. But involuntary psychiatric commitment to prevent suicide suggests that the suffering of persons with mental illness does not justify ending their own lives, ruling out PAD. Since both practices have compelling underlying justifications, the most reasonable accommodation might seem to be to allow PAD for persons with mental illness whose suffering is severe enough to justify self-killing, but prohibit PAD for persons whose suffering is less severe. This compromise, however, would require the articulation of standards by which persons’ mental as well as physical suffering could be evaluated. Doing so would present a serious philosophical challenge.     

McGurk Effect in Gender Identification: Vision Trumps Audition in Voice Judgments

Demonstrations of non-speech McGurk effects are rare, mostly limited to emotion identification, and sometimes not considered true analogues. We presented videos of males and females singing a single syllable on the same pitch and asked participants to indicate the true range of the voice–soprano, alto, tenor, or bass. For one group of participants, the gender shown on the video matched the gender of the voice heard, and for the other group they were mismatched. Soprano or alto responses were interpreted as “female voice” decisions and tenor or bass responses as “male voice” decisions. Identification of the voice gender was 100% correct in the preceding audio-only condition. However, whereas performance was also 100% correct in the matched video/audio condition, it was only 31% correct in the mismatched video/audio condition. Thus, the visual gender information overrode the voice gender identification, showing a robust non-speech McGurk effect.     

Courage,cowardice, and Maher’s misstep

Could a Nazi soldier or terrorist be courageous? The Courage Problem asks us to answer this sort of question, and then to explain why people are reluctant to give this answer. The present paper sheds new light on the Courage Problem by examining a controversy sparked by Bill Maher, who claimed that the 9/11 terrorists’ acts were ‘not cowardly.’ It is shown that Maher’s controversy is fundamentally related to the Courage Problem. Then, a unified solution to both problems is provided. This solution entails that gutsy people who lack good ends are not courageous.     

The texture of causal construals: Domain-specific biases shape causal inferences from discourse

We conducted five sets of experiments asking whether psychological and physical events are construed in broadly different manners concerning the underlying textures of their causes. In Experiments 1a–1d, we found a robust tendency to estimate fewer causes (but not effects) for psychological than for physical events; Experiment 2 showed a similar pattern of results when participants were asked to generate hypothetical causes and effects; Experiment 3 revealed a greater tendency to ascribe linear chains of causes (but not effects) to physical events; Experiment 4 showed that the expectation of linear chains was related to intuitions about deterministic processes; and Experiment 5 showed that simply framing a given ambiguous event in psychological versus physical terms is sufficient to induce changes in the patterns of causal inferences. Adults therefore consistently show a tendency to think about psychological and physical events as being embedded in different kinds of causal structures.     

The Indirect Effects of Social Network Characteristics and Normative Beliefs in the Association between Adolescent Depressive Symptomatology and Binge Drinking

Adolescents who experience depression have different attributional styles and may overestimate how much alcohol their friends consume. This misperception may increase binge drinking among adolescents with depressive symptomatology. The social networks of adolescents with depressive symptomatology are systematically different, providing different social learning opportunities. Using Add Health, we find that individuals who suffer from depressive symptomatology are more likely to have peers with higher depression scores. Adolescents with higher depressive symptomatology are more likely to perceive their peers as drinking alcohol. Our results suggest that normative beliefs are the key mediator in explaining the association between depressive symptomatology and binge drinking.     

Low self-esteem prospectively predicts depression in adolescence and young adulthood

Low self-esteem and depression are strongly correlated in cross-sectional studies, yet little is known about their prospective effects on each other. The vulnerability model hypothesizes that low self-esteem serves as a risk factor for depression, whereas the scar model hypothesizes that low self-esteem is an outcome, not a cause, of depression. To test these models, the authors used 2 large longitudinal data sets, each with 4 repeated assessments between the ages of 15 and 21 years and 18 and 21 years, respectively. Cross-lagged regression analyses indicated that low self-esteem predicted subsequent levels of depression, but depression did not predict subsequent levels of self-esteem. These findings held for both men and women and after controlling for content overlap between the self-esteem and depression scales. Thus, the results supported the vulnerability model, but not the scar model, of self-esteem and depression.     

A hierarchical investigation of personality and behavior: Examining Neo-Socioanalytic models of health-related outcomes

Based on proposed hierarchical relations derived from the Neo-Socioanalytic Theory of personality [Roberts, B. W., & Wood, D. (2006). Personality development in the context of the Neo-Socioanalytic Model of personality. In D. K. Mroczek & T. D. Little (Eds.), Handbook of personality development (pp. 11–39). Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates Publishers], the present study examined the relationships between trait and motivation constructs and health-related outcomes. Participants (N = 201) completed a Big Five measure of personality traits, parallel exercise and diet behavioral identity trait measures, measures of personal values, exercise and diet-related personal strivings, and exercise and diet self-reports. Participants also completed a physical activity assessment and were weighed on a calibrated electronic scale from which body fat percentage could be determined. It was expected that contextualized trait and motivation constructs would mediate the relations between broad trait and motivation constructs and the health-related outcomes. The patterns of relations across trait and motivation constructs also were explored. The trait domain exhibited the expected pattern of hierarchical relations, but the motivation domain showed a more complex pattern of relations. The results are discussed in relation to a hierarchical model of personality and behavior that brings together trait and motivation constructs at multiple levels of analysis.     

Genes, personality, and attachment in adults: a multivariate behavioral genetic analysis

Behavioral genetic methods were used to estimate genetic and environmental contributions to (a) attachment-related anxiety and avoidance and (b) the overlap between these attachment dimensions and the Big Five personality traits. Two major findings emerged from these analyses. First, individual differences in attachment-related anxiety and avoidance were heritable, and second, much of the overlap between adult attachment and the Big Five traits was due to shared genetic influences. Discussion focuses on the implications of these results for attachment theory and research and provides a speculative account of the interplay between temperamental dimensions and internal working models of relationships across the life span.