A Representation Theorem for a Decision Theory With Conditionals

This paper investigates the role of conditionals in hypothetical reasoning and rational decision making. Its main result is a proof of a representation theorem for preferences defined on sets of sentences (and, in particular, conditional sentences), where an agent’s preference for one sentence over another is understood to be a preference for receiving the news conveyed by the former. The theorem shows that a rational preference ordering of conditional sentences determines probability and desirability representations of the agent’s degrees of belief and desire that satisfy, in the case of non-conditional sentences, the axioms of Jeffrey’s decision theory and, in the case of conditional sentences, Adams’ expression for the probabilities of conditionals. Furthermore, the probability representation is shown to be unique and the desirability representation unique up to positive linear transformation. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The accuracy of four approximations to noncentralF

The accuracy of the two-moment, three-moment, square root, and cube root approximations to the noncentralF distribution was assessed using 7,920 entries from Tiku’s (1967) power tables. Tiku’s tables list exact values of β for α= .005?.05, ν₁ = 1?12, ν₂ = 2?120, and ?= 0.5?3.0. Analysis of the errors showed generally satisfactory performance for all four approximations. The three-moment approximation was most accurate, registering a maximum error of only .009. The other three approximations had maximum errors of ±.02, except for the square root approximation at ν₂ = 2, where maximum errors of .05 occur. Approximation error increased with decreases in ν₁ and, less consistently, with increases in ν2. Error was nonmonotonically related to ?. A second investigation explored the accuracy of the approximations at values of αranging from .10 to .90. All four approximations degraded substantially in this situation, with maximum errors ranging from ?.09 to .05. If the analysis is restricted to cases where ν₁ τ; 1 and ν₂ τ; 2, maximum errors drop to roughly ±.03. We conclude that the approximations perform reasonably well for small αand moderately well for larger values, if certain restrictions are imposed. From a computational standpoint, however, there is little advantage to using approximate as opposed to exact methods unless exact values ofF _α are known in advance.     

Linguistically mediated visual search: The critical role of speech rate

Recent studies have shown that the presentation of concurrent linguistic context can lead to highly efficient performance in a standard conjunction search task by the induction of an incremental search strategy (Spivey, Tyler, Eberhard, & Tanenhaus, 2001). However, these findings were obtained under anomalously slow speech rate conditions. Accordingly, in the present study, the effects of concurrent linguistic context on visual search performance were compared when speech was recorded at both a normal rate and a slow rate. The findings provided clear evidence that the visual search benefit afforded by concurrent linguistic context was contingent on speech rate, with normal speech producing a smaller benefit. Overall, these findings have important implications for understanding how linguistic and visual processes interact in real time and suggest a disparity in the temporal resolution of speech comprehension and visual search processes.     

Effects of the terrorist attacks of 9/11/01 on employee attitudes

Much has been stated in the popular press about the effects of the events of 9/11/01 on employee attitudes about work. This study examined a large sample (N = 70,671) of employees of a multinational manufacturer whose annual employee survey data collection was interrupted by the events. After demonstrating measurement equivalence across time and countries, changes in attitudes pre- and post-9/11 were examined. Only negligible differences were found in Job Satisfaction, Supervisor Evaluation, Stress, and Organizational Commitment to Diversity for U.S. employees or for employees worldwide. Demographic differences in response to events were not found. Implications for understanding effects of stressful external events on employee perceptions of work are discussed.     

Demographic characteristics,social competence,and behavior problems in children with gender identity disorder: a cross-national,cross-clinic comparative analysis

This study examined demographic characteristics, social competence, and behavior problems in clinic-referred children with gender identity problems in Toronto, Canada (N = 358), and Utrecht, The Netherlands (N = 130). The Toronto sample was, on average, about a year younger than the Utrecht sample at referral, had a higher percentage of boys, had a higher mean IQ, and was less likely to be living with both parents. On the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL), both groups showed, on average, clinical range scores in both social competence and behavior problems. A CBCL-derived measure of poor peer relations showed that boys in both clinics had worse ratings than did the girls. A multiple regression analysis showed that poor peer relations were the strongest predictor of behavior problems in both samples. This study—the first cross-national, cross-clinic comparative analysis of children with gender identity disorder—found far more similarities than differences in both social competence and behavior problems. The most salient demographic difference was age at referral. Cross-national differences in factors that might influence referral patterns are discussed.