Assembling a consistent set of sentences in relational probabilistic logic with stochastic independence

We examine the representation of judgements of stochastic independence in probabilistic logics. We focus on a relational logic where (i) judgements of stochastic independence are encoded by directed acyclic graphs, and (ii) probabilistic assessments are flexible in the sense that they are not required to specify a single probability measure. We discuss issues of knowledge representation and inference that arise from our particular combination of graphs, stochastic independence, logical formulas and probabilistic assessments.     

Focusing effects in predecisional information acquisition

Legrenzi et al. [Legrenzi, P., Girotto, V., & Johnson-Laird, P. N. (1993). Focusing in reasoning and decision making. Cognition, 49, 37-66] showed that when a single option is proposed for consideration the decision makers limit their information acquisition to this one option, failing to take into account potential alternatives. Unfortunately, the evidence supporting this focusing effect is weak and its determinants are largely unknown. In three experiments, we provided stronger support for the reality of the focusing effect and we identified two significant determinants of this phenomenon. The results show that both representational and value-related manipulations are able to reduce the effect. Results also suggest the need to distinguish between two different types of focusing: representational focusing and search-related focusing.     

Social support, sense of community in school, and self-efficacy as resources during early adolescence: an integrative model

Influences of different sources of social support (from parents and friends), school sense of community, and self-efficacy on psychosocial well being (as measured by self-reported life satisfaction and psychological symptoms) in early adolescence were investigated in an integrative model. The model was tested using structural equation modeling. Multi-group comparisons were used to estimate differences between sex and age groups. The survey sample was composed of 7,097 students in Northern Italy (51.4% male) divided into three age cohorts (equivalent to 6th, 8th, and 10th grades with median ages of 11, 13, and 15). Findings obtained using SEM were consistent with self-efficacy and school sense of community mediating effects of social support on psychosocial adjustment. The multi-group comparison indicates a need for more complex developmental models and more research on how changing forms of support interact with each other as their effects also change during this important stage of the life. Implications for primary prevention and cross-cultural comparisons are discussed.     

Small-sample characterization of stochastic approximation staircases in forced-choice adaptive threshold estimation

Despite the widespread use of up-down staircases in adaptive threshold estimation, their efficiency and usability in forced-choice experiments has been recently debated. In this study, simulation techniques were used to determine the small-sample convergence properties of stochastic approximation (SA) staircases as a function of several experimental parameters. We found that satisfying some general requirements (use of the accelerated SA algorithm, clear suprathreshold initial stimulus intensity, large initial step size) the convergence was accurate independently of the spread of the underlying psychometric function. SA staircases were also reliable for targeting percent-correct levels far from the midpoint of the psychometric function and performed better than classical up-down staircases with fixed step size. These results prompt the utilization of SA staircases in practical forced-choice estimation of sensory thresholds.     

"Brainwashing" Theories in European Parliamentary and Administrative Reports on "Cults" and "Sects"

This study examines the recent rash of official reports done by governmental agencies in Western Europe to guide policy development in those societies. Particular attention is given to reports in France, Belgium, Switzerland, Germany, Sweden, and Italy, and to the changes in such reports that have occurred, perhaps because of the influence of scholarly critiques offered for some of the earlier reports. The reports are divided into "Type I" and "Type II" reports, with the former being thorough-going in their anti-cult orientation, and the latter reports being more moderate in tone, with some attention paid to scholarship on new religions. However, the major thesis of the study is supported, as an examination of both types of reports reveals that they incorporate "brainwashing" and "mind control" imagery imported from the United States, even though such theories have been largely discounted within the United States. Use of such theories leads directly to some questionable policy recommendations, as demonstrated in the reports. Reasons for the spread of "brainwashing" ideas to Europe are discussed.     

Decisions about a crime: downward and upward counterfactuals

Deciding about people’s responsibility, intentions and need for punishment is particularly hard and it may be often associated with counterfactual thinking, which refers to the creation of mental alternatives to actual events. Ninety-three participants were asked to generate downward or upward counterfactuals regarding a given criminal event and, then, to give judgments about defendant’s predictability, responsibility, intentionality and punishment. Results showed that downward counterfactuals had led people to judge the event less intentional, the defendant less responsible and, therefore, to give him a less severe punishment (vice versa for upward). The relationship between counterfactuals and intentionality judgments was partially mediated by the perceived defendant’s predictability of the negative outcomes. Finally, downward counterfactuals were linked to a greater focus on the context (external factors), whereas upward counterfactuals on the defendant/victim’s behaviours (internal factors). Findings were discussed considering both theoretical decision-making models and applications on the judicial field.