The role of causal models in multiple judgments under uncertainty

Two studies examined a novel prediction of the causal Bayes net approach to judgments under uncertainty, namely that causal knowledge affects the interpretation of statistical evidence obtained over multiple observations. Participants estimated the conditional probability of an uncertain event (breast cancer) given information about the base rate, hit rate (probability of a positive mammogram given cancer) and false positive rate (probability of a positive mammogram in the absence of cancer). Conditional probability estimates were made after observing one or two positive mammograms. Participants exhibited a causal stability effect: there was a smaller increase in estimates of the probability of cancer over multiple positive mammograms when a causal explanation of false positives was provided. This was the case when the judgments were made by different participants (Experiment 1) or by the same participants (Experiment 2). These results show that identical patterns of observed events can lead to different estimates of event probability depending on beliefs about the generative causes of the observations.     

Resolving Uncertainty About the Intolerance of Uncertainty Scale–12: Application of Modern Psychometric Strategies

In this study, we evaluated the factor structure, reliability estimates, item parameters, and differential correlates of the short form of the Intolerance of Uncertainty Scale (Carleton, Norton, &; Asmundson, 2007 Carleton, R., Norton, P., &; Asmundson, G. (2007). Fearing the unknown. A short version of the Intolerance of Uncertainty Scale. Journal of Anxiety Disorders, 21, 105–117.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) in samples of undergraduate women (n = 387) and men (n = 276) ranging in age from 18 to 49 years (M = 20.20, SD = 3.91). This instrument was designed to measure 2 facets of intolerance of uncertainty—prospective anxiety and inhibitory anxiety—although total scores on the measure are often used. A major objective of this study was to determine the degree to which derivation of total versus subscale scores is empirically permissible. Comparison of a bifactor model to a unidimensional model and a 2-factor correlated traits model indicated that the bifactor model exhibited superior fit to the sample data. This model provided evidence of a strong general intolerance of uncertainty factor that was more reliable and accounted for significantly more common variance than either subscale factor. Examination of the item response theory slope parameters revealed negligible bias in the measure's items across genders. Finally, a series of simultaneous regression analyses was conducted to examine differential correlates of the measure's total scale scores for men and women.     

Newly learned word forms are abstract and integrated immediately after acquisition

A hotly debated question in word learning concerns the conditions under which newly learned words compete or interfere with familiar words during spoken word recognition. This has recently been described as a key marker of the integration of a new word into the lexicon and was thought to require consolidation Dumay & Gaskell, (Psychological Science, 18, 35–39, 2007; Gaskell & Dumay, Cognition, 89, 105–132, 2003). Recently, however, Kapnoula, Packard, Gupta, and McMurray, (Cognition, 134, 85–99, 2015) showed that interference can be observed immediately after a word is first learned, implying very rapid integration of new words into the lexicon. It is an open question whether these kinds of effects derive from episodic traces of novel words or from more abstract and lexicalized representations. Here we addressed this question by testing inhibition for newly learned words using training and test stimuli presented in different talker voices. During training, participants were exposed to a set of nonwords spoken by a female speaker. Immediately after training, we assessed the ability of the novel word forms to inhibit familiar words, using a variant of the visual world paradigm. Crucially, the test items were produced by a male speaker. An analysis of fixations showed that even with a change in voice, newly learned words interfered with the recognition of similar known words. These findings show that lexical competition effects from newly learned words spread across different talker voices, which suggests that newly learned words can be sufficiently lexicalized, and abstract with respect to talker voice, without consolidation.     

Not Simply in the Eye of the Beholder: Authenticity as a Product of Candidate Preference and Unfettered Speech

Authenticity has emerged over recent decades as a prominent theme in both the press and in political research—and peaked in the 2016 presidential contest that pitted Donald Trump against Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, Marco Rubio, and Ted Cruz. In this context, we attempted to answer the question: How do voters judge a presidential candidate's authenticity? Here we use motivated reasoning and correspondent inference theory as theoretical frameworks to examine how partisan preference combines with perceptions of unfettered speech and strategic impression management to influence voter judgments of a candidate's authenticity. An online survey of 525 respondents demonstrated that individuals' partisan preferences influenced both judgments of a candidate's authenticity and their perceptions of behaviors signifying authenticity (use of unfettered speech versus strategic impression management). These behavioral signals partially mediated the relation between candidate preferences and authenticity judgments. Moreover, voters, given their partisan preferences, differentially weighted candidates' use of unfettered speech and strategic impression management tactics in their judgments of authenticity. Finally, unfiltered/politically incorrect speech was found to have both positive and negative effects on authenticity judgments. Findings further elucidate the nature of authenticity as perceived in others and identify intermediary variables and boundary conditions that influence those perceptions.     

Differential effects of differing intensities of acute exercise on speed and accuracy of cognition: A meta-analytical investigation

The primary purpose of this study was to examine, using meta-analytical techniques, the differential effects of differing intensities of acute exercise on speed and accuracy of cognition. Overall, exercise demonstrated a small, significant mean effect size (g = 0.14, p < 0.01) on cognition. Examination of the comparison between speed and accuracy dependent variables showed that speed accounted for most of the effect. For speed, moderate intensity exercise demonstrated a significantly larger mean effect size than those for low and high intensities. For speed of processing during moderate intensity exercise, central executive tasks showed a larger effect size than recall and alertness/attention tasks; and mean effect size for counterbalanced or randomized studies was significantly greater than for studies in which a pre-exercise followed by during or post-exercise protocol was used. There was no significant difference between mean effect sizes when testing took place post-exercise compared to during exercise for speed but accuracy studies demonstrated a significantly larger mean effect size post-exercise. It was concluded that increased arousal during moderate intensity exercise resulted in faster speed of processing. The very limited effect on accuracy may be due to the failure to choose tests which are complex enough to measure exercise-induced changes in accuracy of performance.