‘Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is!’: Effects of Streaks on Confidence and Betting in a Binary Choice Task

Human choice under uncertainty is influenced by erroneous beliefs about randomness. In simple binary choice tasks, such as red/black predictions in roulette, long outcome runs (e.g. red, red, red) typically increase the tendency to predict the other outcome (i.e. black), an effect labeled the “gambler's fallacy.” In these settings, participants may also attend to streaks in their predictive performance. Winning and losing streaks are thought to affect decision confidence, although prior work indicates conflicting directions. Over three laboratory experiments involving red/black predictions in a sequential roulette task, we sought to identify the effects of outcome runs and winning/losing streaks upon color predictions, decision confidence and betting behavior. Experiments 1 (n = 40) and 3 (n = 40) obtained trial‐by‐trial confidence ratings, with a win/no win payoff and a no loss/loss payoff, respectively. Experiment 2 (n = 39) obtained a trial‐by‐trial bet amount on an equivalent scale. In each experiment, the gambler's fallacy was observed on choice behavior after color runs and, in experiment 2, on betting behavior after color runs. Feedback streaks exerted no reliable influence on confidence ratings, in either payoff condition. Betting behavior, on the other hand, increased as a function of losing streaks. The increase in betting on losing streaks is interpreted as a manifestation of loss chasing; these data help clarify the psychological mechanisms underlying loss chasing and caution against the use of betting measures (“post‐decision wagering”) as a straightforward index of decision confidence. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Beyond conflict: Functional facets of the work-family interplay

The present paper deals with three positive facets of the work-family interplay, i.e., transfer of competencies, transfer of positive mood, and cross-domain compensation. The latter refers to the experience that engagement in one domain helps dealing with failures in the other domain. In two correlational studies (N₁ = 107 working mothers, N₂ = 146 working men and women), cross-domain compensation predicted domain-specific well-being even when we controlled for work-family conflicts and the two other positive facets (viz., transfer of competencies and positive mood). In an additional experiment (N₃ = 63 working men and women), which exclusively focused on compensation, participants were asked to remember a job-related failure. Then they were instructed to think about a positive job-related experience (i.e., intradomain compensation) or family-related experience (i.e., cross-domain compensation). Compared to a control group, both experimental groups showed faster emotional recovery, with cross-domain compensation being a slightly more effective strategy at the beginning of that recovery.     

How immigrant adolescents' self‐views in school and family context relate to academic success in Germany

Immigrants' sense of self can be derived both from being members of their ethnic in‐group and their country of residence. We examined how the ways in which immigrant adolescents integrate these self‐views in relation to academic success in German schools. Students describe themselves at school and when with family. Using a standardized literacy performance test, analyses revealed that immigrants whose school‐related self‐view did not include Germany were less successful: Students who described their self as including both aspects of their ethnic group and Germany, and students who saw themselves predominantly as German, outperformed students with purely ethnic school‐related selves. As expected, though, an ethnic family‐related self‐view did not have a negative impact on scholastic achievements.     

The Relationship Between Arousal and the Remembered Duration of Positive Events

The relation between affect and retrospective duration estimation has hardly been examined. In this paper, we contribute to filling this gap by studying the influence of arousal on the remembered duration of positive events. On the basis of the contextual change model, we expected that high‐arousal positive events would be remembered as longer compared with low‐arousal positive events. To test this hypothesis, we set up a naturalistic study in which participants were asked at the end of a pleasant amusement park ride at the local fair to rate how pleasant and aroused they felt during the ride as well as to estimate the ride's duration. Feeling more aroused during a ride was associated with longer estimates of the ride's duration. Results are discussed within the framework of retrospective time estimation models. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Implications of Independent Versus Interdependent Self-knowledge for Motivated Social Cognition: The Semantic Procedural Interface Model of the Self

The Semantic Procedural Interface Model of the Self (SPI) suggests that, depending on the strength of the situational accessibility of independent or interdependent self-knowledge, people will tend to process stimuli either unaffected by context (context-independency) or cognizant of context (context-dependency). In this paper we describe the cognitive processes underlying context-independent or context-dependent information processing. We suggest that degree of context-dependency depends on cognitive control processes (attentional focus on focal or task-relevant information; inhibition of contextual or task-irrelevant information; task-management). Second, we predict motivational effects of the self's independence/interdependence by including assumptions about possible selves.     

Priming the mental time-line: effects of modality and processing mode

The notion of a mental time-line (i.e., past corresponds to left and future corresponds to right) supports the conceptual metaphor view assuming that abstract concepts like “time” are grounded in cognitively more accessible concepts like “space.” In five experiments, we further investigated the relationship between temporal and spatial representations and examined whether or not the spatial correspondents of time are unintentionally activated. We employed a priming paradigm, in which visual or auditory prime words (i.e., temporal adverbs such as yesterday, tomorrow) preceded a colored square. In all experiments, participants discriminated the color of this square by responding with the left or the right hand. Although the temporal reference of the priming adverb was task irrelevant in Experiment 1, visually presented primes facilitated responses to the square in correspondence with the direction of the mental time-line. This priming effect was absent in Experiments 2, 3, and 5, in which the primes were presented auditorily and the temporal reference of the words could be ignored. The effect, however, emerged when attention was oriented to the temporal content of the auditory prime words in Experiment 4. The results suggest that task demands differentially modulate the activation of the mental time-line within the visual and auditory modality and support a flexible association between conceptual codes.     

Enhanced orienting effects: Evidence for an interaction principle

Predictive arrow cues, as used in the classic “Posner paradigm”, that were long thought to engage and isolate voluntary attention, may in fact trigger a strong interaction between voluntary and involuntary attention (Ristic & Kingstone, 2006). This interaction produces an orienting effect that exceeds both the effects of involuntary and voluntary attention alone, and the additive combination of involuntary and voluntary orienting. The present study shows that nonpredictive peripheral cues—understood to engage and isolate involuntary attention—if made predictive, result in enhanced orienting effects similar to predictive arrows. The important contribution of these data is that they suggest an “interaction principle”: If attention cues can elicit reliable involuntary orienting, then when they are made spatially predictive, the resulting attention effect will be greater than the sum of involuntary and voluntary orienting alone.     

Training propositional reasoning

Two experiments compared the effects of four training conditions on propositional reasoning. A syntactic training demonstrated formal derivations, in an abstract semantic training the standard truth-table definitions of logical connectives were explained, and a domain-specific semantic training provided thematic contexts for the premises of the reasoning task. In a control training, an inductive reasoning task was practised. In line with the account by mental models, both kinds of semantic training were significantly more effective than the control and the syntactic training, whereas there were no significant differences between the control and the syntactic training, nor between the two kinds of semantic training. Experiment 2 replicated this pattern of effects using a different set of syntactic and domain-specific training conditions.