Best linear composites with a specified structure

Least squares linear composites of predictors for estimating several criteria are derived, satisfying the restriction that the composites have an arbitrary specified intercorrelation matrix. These composites are compared with the usual unrestricted regression composites. An illustrative example is provided. The derivation depends on a general result, given in an appendix, about best-fitting orthonormal transformations.This research was done while the author was a Fellow at The Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences. The investigation was supported by a Public Health Service fellowship, 1 F3 MH-28, 495-01 (PS), from the National Institute of Mental Health. Preparation of the paper was supported in part by Grant MH 07722 from the National Institute of Mental Health, Public Health Service, for work done at Carnegie-Mellon University.     

The computer revolution in psychometrics

Summary We have said that psychometric methods involving algorithms are completely objective—at least they are if the algorithm is in the form of a program for a digital computer. These objective procedures need Monte Carlo and other computer runs to determine their properties, but so do many equation-oriented techniques. The objective algorithms are flexible but not flaccid. They offer a way of dealing with complexities that formerly seemed beyond our grasp. As the computer revolution continues in psychometrics, we can expect objective algorithmic methods to become the rule rather than the exception.Presidential address delivered at the annual meeting of the Psychometric Society, New York, New York, September 3, 1966.This paper was prepared while the author was a Fellow at the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences. The investigation was supported by a Public Health Service fellowship, 1 F3, MH-28, 495-01 (PS), from the National Institute of Mental Health.     

Psychiatric predictions and the death penalty: An unconstitutional sword for the prosecution but a constitutional shield for the defense

The Supreme Court continues to permit psychiatrists and other mental health professionals to testify regarding capital defendants' propensity to future dangerousness. Virtually all scientific evidence indicates that these predictions are unreliable. However, capital juries are particularly likely to rely heavily on such testimony. The admission of this evidence violates the safeguards mandated by the Supreme Court's own case law demanding that a capital jury's discretion be guided. The Court must consider the reliability of evidence of future dangerousness, deny its admissibility on behalf of the prosecution, but structure a rule that does not infringe on capital defendants' right to present evidence in mitigation that may implicate future dangerousness.     

Feeling rules: Testing a model of appraisal—affect relations

The aim of this study was to test a model specifying the relations between appraisals and affects. A theory of the appraisal—affect relation is proposed in terms of general feeling rules differentiating between affects. A taxonomy of ten appraisals is presented, each defined by a specific profile of scores on four appraisal variables: desirability, controllability, responsibility, and the kind of value being at stake in an event. The appraisals are related to nine affect dimensions, resulting from earlier taxonomic research on the structure of affect (Hoekstra, 1986). All predictions following from the theory were tested in two independent samples by structural analysis. The model showed a good fit in both data sets.     

Loneliness accentuates age differences in cardiovascular responses to social evaluative threat

The effects of aging and loneliness on cardiovascular stress responses were examined in 91 young (18-30 years) and 91 older (65-80 years) normotensive adults. Participants completed the revised UCLA Loneliness Scale and a modified version of the Trier Social Stress Test. Piece-wise linear growth-curve analysis was used to model group differences in resting, reactivity, and recovery levels of systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP). Replicating and extending prior research, analyses revealed age-related increases in resting SBP and DBP. Adjusting for demographics and health covariates, interactions were found for SBP in which age differences in stress reactivity and recovery were greater among lonely than nonlonely participants. Findings provide further evidence that loneliness interacts with age to augment cardiovascular risk to social evaluative threat.     

Effectiveness Through Reasonableness Preliminary Steps to Pragma-Dialectical Effectiveness Research

The introduction of the concept of strategic maneuvering into the pragma-dialectical theory makes it possible to formulate testable hypotheses regarding the persuasiveness of argumentative moves that are made in argumentative discourse. After summarizing the standard pragma-dialectical approach to argumentation, van Eemeren, Garssen, and Meuffels explain what the extension of the pragma-dialectical approach with strategic maneuvering involves and discuss the fallacies in terms of the extended pragma-dialectical approach as derailments of strategic maneuvering. Then they give an empirical interpretation of the extended pragma-dialectical model in which they report the testing of three hypotheses which formulate preliminary conditions for effectiveness research within the framework of the extended pragma-dialectical theory and the results of the tests they consecutively carried out.     

Modelling mechanisms with causal cycles

Mechanistic philosophy of science views a large part of scientific activity as engaged in modelling mechanisms. While science textbooks tend to offer qualitative models of mechanisms, there is increasing demand for models from which one can draw quantitative predictions and explanations. Casini et al. (Theoria 26(1):5–33, 2011) put forward the Recursive Bayesian Networks (RBN) formalism as well suited to this end. The RBN formalism is an extension of the standard Bayesian net formalism, an extension that allows for modelling the hierarchical nature of mechanisms. Like the standard Bayesian net formalism, it models causal relationships using directed acyclic graphs. Given this appeal to acyclicity, causal cycles pose a prima facie problem for the RBN approach. This paper argues that the problem is a significant one given the ubiquity of causal cycles in mechanisms, but that the problem can be solved by combining two sorts of solution strategy in a judicious way.     

Development and test of an integrative model of job search behaviour

Research on job search and the theory of planned behaviour (TPB) has identified job search attitude, subjective norm, and job search self-efficacy as the most proximal determinants of job seekers’ search intentions and subsequently job search behaviours. However, we do not yet know how more distal individual differences (e.g., personality) and situational factors (e.g., social context) might help to predict these key TPB determinants of job search behaviour. In an integrative model of job search behaviour, we propose specific relationships between these distal variables and the TPB determinants, which in turn are expected to mediate the effects of individual differences and situational factors on job search behaviour. The hypothesized model is tested in a large representative sample of 1,177 unemployed Flemish job seekers using a two-wave design and provides a satisfactory fit to the data. Extraversion, conscientiousness, core self-evaluations, employment commitment, financial need, and social support are found to differentially relate to instrumental job search attitude, affective job search attitude, subjective norm, and job search self-efficacy. In addition, all distal variables are indirectly related to job search behaviour through their effects on the TPB variables. These results support our expanded and integrative model of job search behaviour.