An evaluation of the reliability of probability judgments across response modes and over time

Despite the importance of probability assessment methods in behavioral decision theory and decision analysis, little attention has been directed at evaluating their reliability and validity. In fact, no comprehensive study of reliability has been undertaken. Since reliability is a necessary condition for validity, this oversight is significant. The present study was motivated by that oversight. We investigated the reliability of probability measures derived from three response modes: numerical probabilities, pie diagrams, and odds. Unlike previous studies, the experiment was designed to distinguish systematic deviations in probability judgments, such as those due to experience or practice, from random deviations. It was found that subjects assessed probabilities reliably for all three assessment methods regardless of the reliability measures employed. However, a small but statistically significant decrease over time in the magnitudes of assessed probabilities was observed. This effect was linked to a decrease in subjects overconfidence during the course of the experiment.     

Drawing the boundary between subject and object: Comments on the mind-brain problem

Physics says that it cannot deal with the mind-brain problem, because it does not deal in subjectivities, and mind is subjective. However, biologists (among others) still claim to seek a material basis for subjective mental processes, which would thereby render them objective. Something is clearly wrong here. I claim that what is wrong is the adoption of too narrow a view of what constitutes ‘objectivity’, especially in identifying it with what a ‘machine’ can do. I approach the problem in the light of two cognate circumstances: (a) the ‘measurement problem’ in quantum physics, and (b) the objectivity of standard mathematics, even though most of it is beyond the reach of ‘machines’. I argue that the only resolution to such problems is in the recognition that closed loops of causation are ‘objective’; i.e. legitimate objects of scientific scrutiny. These are explicitly forbidden in any machine or mechanism. A material system which contains such loops is called ‘complex’. Such complex systems thus must possess nonsimulable models; i.e. models which contain impredicativities or ‘self-references’ which cannot be removed, or faithfully mapped into a single coherent syntactic time-frame. I consider a few of the consequences of the above, in the context of thus redrawing the boundary between subject and object.     

Stressors, Stress Mediators, and Emotional Weil-Being Among Spouses of Soldiers Deployed to the Persian Gulf During Operation Desert Shield/Storm

The Family Factors Field Study of Operation Desert Shield/Storm (ODS) was designed to collect data on the impact of the Persian Gulf deployment on soldier/family well-being, and the effectiveness of Army and community resources in assisting and supporting families of deployed soldiers. In October 1990, a task force was assembled, and multi-agency research teams visited several Army installations. Informal individual and group interviews were conducted with spouses, unit family support leaders, unit rear detachment personnel, garrison leaders, and local Army program/service providers. The questions were aimed at identifying key stressors which spouses and children experienced in relation to the sudden deployment, as well a stress mediators such as social supports and personal coping skills. Anecdotal information collected during the site visits, combined with findings from previous research on Army families, was used to develop a questionnaire designed to quantify those variables which emerged as relevant to a study of stressors and stress mediators in the context of the ODS deployment.     

Interpersonal loss and self-mutilation

Self-mutilation was hypothesized to increase in frequency during periods of interpersonal loss in a treatment program for seriously disturbed adolescents. The study examined changes in the frequency of acts of self-mutilation, aggression, and running away for 32 teenagers who experienced interpersonal loss when staff members left employment. Data were collected for a 4-year period. Statistical findings indicated that the frequency of self-mutilation increased significantly during the time period of anticipated loss, 2 weeks prior to staff terminations. There was no significant increase in the frequency of self-mutilation immediately following the staff terminations. Also, there was no significant change in the rates of aggression or running away either before or after the loss events. It was concluded that the time of anticipated loss was the period of highest risk for these adolescents in terms of self-mutilative behavior.     

Burnout in Spurned Medical Caregivers and the Impact of Job Expectancy Training

This study represents an extrapolation to the practical realm of a theoretical model that has been supported thus far only by laboratory studies. The model regards the rejection of help by people in need as being stressful for caregivers partly because it violates their expectations of acceptance and threatens their self-image as competent caregivers. It was hypothesized that high levels of perceived rejection by patients and others at work would contribute to burnout in medical caregivers. It was also predicted that high levels of stress preparation in caregivers' training with regard to job expectancies and patient (non)compliance would lessen burnout and buffer the effects of spurning. Responses to a questionnaire by a sample of physicians and hospital nurses revealed a direct association of perceived spurning, as well as an inverse association of stress preparation with burnout, and gave some indication of buffering, as hypothesized. Expressions of violated expectancies and of job disillusionment were directly associated with burnout and inversely associated with stress preparation. Informal job expectancy shaped by coworkers was found to be directly associated with burnout in physicians, but it was inversely associated with burn out in nurses. The implications of these findings are considered     

An External Validation of Laboratory Evidence for Earned Dignity

Both theoretical arguments and laboratory evidence indicate that society awards earned dignity (worth) to persons perceived as voluntarily performing praiseworthy behaviors. Laboratory research, as well as common observation, indicates also that society accords an intrinsic dignity unconditionally to all people. On a questionnaire given in class, college students reported increased dignity earned by the Russians from their praiseworthy (i.e., embracing freedom) and voluntary rejection of the attempted coup in 1991. The questionnaire also revealed a general belief in intrinsic dignity. External evidence for earned dignity is shown by increased international support for the Russians after rejection of the coup. This convergence of laboratory and external data validates the laboratory techniques for studying social perception of human dignity.     

Soliciting Charity Contributions: The Parlance of Asking for Money1

The major purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of three verbally-mediated variables on financial contributions in a door-todoor charity campaign. The relationship of race to contributions was also observed by using both black and white subjects. One hundred and twenty black and 120 white subjects were randomly assigned to one of 8 verbal appeals in a 2 (High vs. Low Dependency) × 2 (Internal vs. External Causal Locus of Need) × 2 (“it is your social responsibility” vs. “it will make you feel good” Expressed Reason for Giving) factorial design. The solicitor controlled for order effects by varying the sequence of these three variables within each experimental group. Main effects were found for Rae, Causal Locus of Need, and Expressed Reason for Giving: Whites contributed more than blacks, the external locus of need condition produced more giving than the internal condition, and persons who heard the “feel good” reason donated more than those in the “social responsibility” condition. Additionally, a significant Causal Locus of Need × Expressed Reason for Giving interaction was found. The combination of external locus of need and “feel good” was considerably more productive of contributions than the other three combinations. Implications of these results for the helping behavior literature are discussed.     

Perceived sex differences in managerially relevant characteristics

A national sample of 884 male managers completed a survey of managerially relevant perceived sex differences. Females were rated lower on the following scales: (a) aptitudes, skills, and knowledge; (b) motivation and job interest; (c) temperament; and (d) work habits and attitudes. Moreover, lower ratings of women were prevalent among males in a variety of jobs, organizations, and industries.     

Tests of a two-stage model of visual matching

Predictions from a model of visual matching were tested in two experiments. The model consists of a wholistic comparison process followed by an element-by-element comparison process. All stimuli are processed by the first stage but only those that permit a decision based on a wholistic comparison produce responses. When discrimination is difficult and a decision cannot be reached by a wholistic comparison, the second stage of processing is initiated. Degree of discriminability and stimulus duration (100 and 1000 msec.) were varied in both experiments. In Exp. 1, the stimulus elements were arranged in a square configuration to facilitate a wholistic comparison. As predicted, the hard-different stimuli took longer to match than the same or easy-different stimuli. The hard-different stimuli presented for 1000 msec. took longer to match than those presented for 100 msec. There was no difference in accuracy between responses to hard-different pairs at the two durations. In Exp. 2, the stimulus elements were arranged in a horizontal row and placed one above the other to facilitate element-by-element comparison. As predicted, these stimuli produced slower and more accurate responses for same and hard-different stimulus pairs only when they were exposed for 1000 msec. Responses to easy-different stimulus pairs were made quickly and accurately.