Subjunctive Conditional Probability

There seem to be two ways of supposing a proposition: supposing “indicatively” that Shakespeare didn’t write Hamlet, it is likely that someone else did; supposing “subjunctively” that Shakespeare hadn’t written Hamlet, it is likely that nobody would have written the play. Let P(B//A) be the probability of B on the subjunctive supposition that A. Is P(B//A) equal to the probability of the corresponding counterfactual, A □→B? I review recent triviality arguments against this hypothesis and argue that they do not succeed. On the other hand, I argue that even if we can equate P(B//A) with P(A □→B), we still need an account of how subjunctive conditional probabilities are related to unconditional probabilities. The triviality arguments reveal that the connection is not as straightforward as one might have hoped.     

Disability and employment – overview and highlights

Due to the expected decline in the working-age population, especially in European countries, people with disabilities are now more often recognized as a valuable resource in the workforce and research into disability and employment is more important than ever. This paper outlines the state of affairs of research on disability and employment. We thereby focus on one particular group of people with disabilities, that is to say people with mental disabilities. We define disability according to the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF) of the World Health Organization, by that recognizing that disability results from the interaction of person and environment. Key issues, including the complexity of defining disability, the legal situation in Europe and North America concerning disability at work, and barriers and enablers to employment, are discussed. For each of the topics we show important findings in the existing literature and indicate where more in-depth research is needed. We finalize with a concrete research agenda on disability and employment and provide recommendations for practice.     

Positive Affect and College Success

This study investigated the relation between positive affect and a variety of variables related to college success for undergraduate students matriculating at 21 academically selective 4-year colleges and universities in the United States. Positive affect??cheerfulness??is generally positively related to students?? self-rated academic abilities, self-predicted likelihoods of various college outcomes, self-stated major and academic-degree intentions, and self-reported subjective college outcomes, but negatively related to most objective college-success variables (e.g., cumulative college grade-point average) recorded by the institution of matriculation, and not related to objective college outcomes reported by the student. Positive affect is thus associated with ??positive illusions?? about college-success variables.     

Assessing the dysregulation of the Behavioral Activation System: the Hypomanic Personality Scale and the BIS-BAS scales

We discuss the Hypomanic Personality Scale (Hyp; Eckblad & Chapman, 1986) and the Behavioral Inhibition System (BIS-BAS; Carver & White, 1994) and Behavioral Activation System (BAS; Gray, 1991) Scales as risk factors for bipolar disorders. The dysregulation of the BAS is considered to be central and results in higher variability in mood. Therefore, we examined how those scales are associated with mood fluctuations. A total of 59 participants completed a diary for at least 17 days. It included a modified Center for Epidemiologic Studies-Depression Scale (Meyer & Hautzinger, 2001) assessing depression and mania and the Positive and Negative Affect Schedule (Watson, Clark, & Tellegen, 1988). Hyp and BAS predicted levels of mania and of positive affect but also fluctuations of mania. Hyp also predicted instability of negative affect. Our data also suggest that mood variability is a trait-like feature. Both scales seem not to be perfect measures of the dysregulation factor. Future research should assess this dysregulation more directly.     

Stochastic cascade processes as a model of multi-stage concurrent information processing

McClelland's (Psychol. Rev. 86 (1979) 287) influential cascade model of reaction time (RT) is often seen as an important explicitly formulated alternative to strictly serial models because some of its basic notions fit in with known characteristics of neural activation processes. A disadvantage is that it is an essentially deterministic model to which noise is added by across-trials parameter variability that is unrelated to the concept of cascaded activation propagation per se. We propose and analyze a general stochastic cascade model based on neural counting processes; within this framework we present a new process-oriented interpretation of McClelland's cascade activation equation. We then theoretically explain and numerically explore conditions under which the stochastic cascade model predicts additive vs. interactive mean RT effects, and compare them to known properties of McClelland's model. Some of these properties remain valid even within a stochastic neural counting formulation, while others reflect assumptions which are essentially unrelated to the concept of cascaded activation.     

The Role of Ease of Retrieval and Attribution in Memory Judgments: Judging Your Memory as Worse Despite Recalling More Events

Participants who had to recall 12 childhood events (a difficult task) were more likely to infer that they could not remember large parts of their childhood than participants who had to recall 4 events (an easy task), although the former recalled three times as many events. This pattern of results suggests that memory judgments are based on the experienced ease or difficulty of recall. Accordingly, the negative impact of recalling 12 events was attenuated when participants were led to attribute the experienced difficulty to the task rather than to the poor quality of their memory. The findings emphasize the role of subjective experiences and attribution in metamemory judgments.     

Movement after-effects in normal development

Summary Fifty-one blindfolded children between the ages of 5 and 13 years pointed straight ahead before and after 10 trials of pointing asymmetrically to the body midline. It was found that whereas the younger children showed after-effect shifts in the direction opposite to the side of assymetrical stimulation, the older children's after-effect shifts were on the same direction as the previous asymmetrical pointing position.     

When reactance effects persist despite restoration of freedom: Investigations of time delay and vicarious control

Two studies are reported indicating that changes in attractiveness induced by psychological reactance are eliminated by a restoration of freedom only if the restoration occurs immediately following the threat. When the restoration was delayed, changes in attractiveness were attenuated but were still significant, no matter whether the restoration occurred by chance or was under subjects' vicarious control. A threat immediately followed by a restoration, however, may be perceived as one event, and thus may not be very threatening. Therefore, the absence of reactance effects after immediate restoration may be due to a weak induction of reactance rather than to a reduction of reactance. To this extent, the incomplete reduction of reactance effects found after delayed restoration, on the other hand, calls into question earlier conclusions (based on immediate restoration) that reactance is completely reduced by restoration of freedom and that reactance effects will no longer be obtained.     

Immoral,infectious, or both? How disgust sensitivity predicts judgments of violations against COVID-19 mitigation actions

Violations against mitigation actions to prevent the spreading of the SARS-CoV-2 virus causing COVID-19, such as not wearing a mask or not practicing social distancing, were seen as immoral and could also increase the likelihood of spreading the virus. In two studies (N1 = 318, N2 = 293), we found that moral and pathogen disgust sensitivity differentially predicted perceptions of such COVID-19 violations against mitigation actions, framed as a moral, pathogen, or on a good-bad dimension, albeit in a less specific way than initially hypothesized (e.g., regarding the pathogenic framed violations, not only pathogen but also moral disgust was associated with higher perceptions of infectiousness). These results suggest that individual differences, especially in pathogen disgust (and, more inconsistently, moral disgust), are important when evaluating violations against mitigation actions. Further research on the role of moral disgust is needed.     

Telling what they want to know: participants tailor causal attributions to researchers' interests

Based on a conversational analysis of experimental procedures and consistent with the principle of relevance, we predicted that participants' verbal responses will be influenced by their tacit inferences about the researcher's epistemic goals, derived from their knowledge of the researcher's academic affiliation. We tested this prediction in a core area of social‐personality and cultural psychology, causal attribution. University students provided causal attributions about mass murder cases, while the questionnaire identified the researcher either as a social scientist or a personality psychologist. The results indicated that attributions were overall more situational than dispositional, and as predicted, this main effect was qualified by an interaction between conversational cue and type of attribution. Thus, participants gave relatively more situational explanations when the letterhead of the questionnaire identified the researcher as a social scientist compared to when the researcher was identified as a personality psychologist. The reverse pattern emerged for dispositional attributions. Methodological and conceptual implications are discussed. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.