决策与判断研究中的个体分析(英文)

决策与判断研究中(甚至是实验心理学研究中)的许多问题关注某效应是否真实存在,及其背后的解释是什么。这些问题不关注该效应在某一特殊群体中是否显著。因此,可以通过分析单个被试来检验效应的显著性。如果有一个被试表现出了该效应,那么,这个效应就是存在的。根据这一观点,有时也可通过跨案例或者轮次(across cases or rounds)分析来验证效应的显著性,而不需要进行跨被试分析(across subjects)。这一观点也暗示在一些实验中可能存在反方向的效应。本文建议通过进行基于被试个体的统计分析来检验这样的效应,并介绍了一些不同形式的方法:PP概率图(probability probability plots);P值分布检验(tests of the distribution of p-values);分层取样多重检验的矫正(correction for multiple testing with step-down resampling)。这些方法都可以用于处理在对同样假设进行多重检验时无法避免的问题。另外,本文也列举了一些例子,其中有一部分例子存在反方向的效应,另一部分例子不存在。     

Shame and Shamelessness

What is the relation between shame and shamelessness? It may seem obvious: shamelessness is simply the absence of shame. But on reflection, it becomes clear that the story is considerably more complicated. Michelle Mason's intriguing "On Shamelessness" prompts such reflection (albeit unintentionally). Mason argues that we should be mindful of the "moral importance of shame" and "unapologetic in its defense" (403), and she does so via an examination of shamelessness and an argument to the effect that shamelessness is (with some exceptions) a moral fault. The tacit assumption is that insofar as shamelessness is a moral fault, the value of shame is vindicated. I challenge that assumption.     

Cognitive biases in moral judgments that affect political behavior

Cognitive biases that affect decision making may affect the decisions of citizens that influence public policy. To the extent that decisions follow principles other than maximizing utility for all, it is less likely that utility will be maximized, and the citizens will ultimately suffer the results. Here I outline some basic arguments concerning decisions by citizens, using voting as an example. I describe two types of values that may lead to sub-optimal consequences when these values influence political behavior: moralistic values (which people are willing to impose on others regardless of the consequences) and protected values (PVs, values protected from trade-offs). I present evidence against the idea that voting is expressive, i.e., that voters aim to express their moral views rather than to have an effect on outcomes. I show experimentally that PVs are often moralistic. Finally, I present some data that citizens’ think of their duty in a parochial way, neglecting out-groups. I conclude that moral judgments are important determinants of citizen behavior, that these judgments are subject to biases and based on moralistic values, and that, therefore, outcomes are probably less good than they could be.     

THE ILLUSION OF MORALITY AS SELF-INTEREST:

Abstract— One reason for people's voluntary cooperation in social dilemmas, or altruistic behavior in general, may be their belief that altruism pays off in terms of long-run self-interest. Although this is often true, it is typically false in large-scale social dilemmas among strangers. In three questionnaire studies, subjects endorsed this self-interest illusion frequently for large-scale dilemmas, such as over-fishing and pollution, in which the benefits of cooperation are delayed.     

Ignorance of hedonic adaptation to hemodialysis: a study using ecological momentary assessment

Healthy people generally underestimate the self-reported well-being of people with disabilities and serious illnesses. The cause of this discrepancy is in dispute, and the present study provides evidence for 2 causes. First, healthy people fail to anticipate hedonic adaptation to poor health. Using an ecological momentary assessment measure of mood, the authors failed to find evidence that hemodialysis patients are less happy than healthy nonpatients are, suggesting that they have largely, if not completely, adapted to their condition. In a forecasting task, healthy people failed to anticipate this adaptation. Second, although controls understated their own mood in both an estimation task and a recall task, patients were quite accurate in both tasks. This relative negativity in controls' estimates of their own moods could also contribute to their underestimation of the moods and overall well-being of patients.