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101.
Extending research by the authors on intelligence forecasting, the forecasting skill of 3622 geopolitical forecasts extracted from strategic intelligence reports was examined. The codable subset of forecasts (N = 2013) was expressed with verbal probabilities (e.g., likely) and translated to numeric probability equivalents. This subset showed very good calibration and discrimination, but also underconfidence. There was no support for the hypothesis that forecasting skill was good mainly because of the general ease of forecasting topics. First, forecasting skill was as good among authoritative key judgments as in the general set. Second, forecasts that were assigned high degrees of certainty, indicative of ease, (p ≤ 0.05 or p ≥ 0.95) did not discriminate as well as less certain forecasts (0.05 < p < 0.95), and these subsets did not differ in calibration. Sensitivity and benchmarking tests further revealed that if the 1609 uncodable forecasts were all assigned forecast probabilities of .5 (i.e., if all followed a “cautious ignorance” rule), skill characteristics would still show a large effect size improvement over a variety of guesswork strategies. The findings support a cautiously optimistic assessment of forecasting skill in strategic intelligence and indicate that such skill is not primarily attributable to the selection of easy forecasting topics. However, the large proportion of uncodable cases suggests that intelligence forecasts could be improved by avoiding imprecise language that affects not only the codability but also, in all likelihood, the interpretability and indicative value of forecasts for intelligence consumers. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
102.
Alan Brown Jenny Bimrose Sally-Anne Barnes Deirdre Hughes 《Journal of Vocational Behavior》2012,80(3):754-761
Career adaptability is mediated by personality factors and socio-psychological processes, with learning playing an important role. Using a five-fold career adapt-abilities competency framework (defined here as control, curiosity, commitment, confidence and concern), which was developed from the international quantitative study that is the focus of this special edition, an explicitly qualitative study of the career biographies of mid-career changers from two European countries was undertaken. Data from 64 in-depth interviews with adults in contrasting labor markets from Norway and the UK were analysed deductively, using a career adapt-abilities framework. Results demonstrate the utility of the framework, as well as how adaptive adults used both formal and informal learning to develop career adapt-ability competencies, over time, across occupations and occupational sectors. A key conclusion relates to how this career adapt-abilities competency framework could be used to motivate adults in mid-career to adopt behaviors that help them effect positive career change. 相似文献
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John D. Hathcoat Laura L. B. Barnes 《The International journal for the psychology of religion》2013,23(2):73-84
Although numerous studies have documented a strong, positive association between Right-wing Authoritarianism (RWA) and Religious Fundamentalism (RF), little empirical work has actually investigated the reasons for this relationship. In the present study we propose that a fundamentalist meaning system predicts a system of beliefs about knowledge and knowing (e.g., personal epistemology), which is then partially responsible for sustaining authoritarian attitudes. A convenience sample of 227 undergraduate students was given the RWA scale, the Epistemic Belief Inventory, and the Revised Religious Fundamentalism scale in an online survey. A partial mediation model was tested using structural equation modeling analysis, in which 2,000 bootstraps were taken from the observed covariance matrix to construct confidence intervals around each indirect effect. Findings from the present study support the partial mediation hypothesis, in which the effect of RF to RWA travels through belief in certain knowledge, simple knowledge, and omniscient authority. 相似文献
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JC Beall 《Australasian journal of philosophy》2013,91(2):264-268
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Melanie K. Barnes 《Journal of Loss and Trauma》2013,18(3):275-298
Abstract The loss of a close relational partner, whether a family member, friend, spouse, or romantic partner, is one of the most difficult, and at the same time predictable, situations that individuals can experience. Although the grieving process is very individual, one's support network can either facilitate or hinder the coping process. This article utilizes a case study approach to consider the ways that one's social network provides emotional and instrumental support following the death of a close relational partner. A 21-year-old female whose fiance was killed in a traffic accident participated in three separate interviews at 4, 9, and 16 months after the accident. Interpretive analyses support the assertion that, as individuals progress through the various phases of bereavement, their needs for specific forms of social support change, as do their perceptions of what is helpful and unhelpful. 相似文献
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