On <Emphasis Type="Italic">The Social Construction of Reality</Emphasis>: Reflections on a Missed Opportunity

The paper recalls my response to Berger’s and Luckmann’s book on reading it shortly after its initial publication. It seeks to convey why it was that I failed to make use of the book at that time, even though I recognised it as an outstanding contribution to my intended field of research, and how later I came to see that this may have been a lost opportunity. The story touches upon diverse important issues including the relationship between epistemology and the sociology of knowledge; the epistemic authority of the natural sciences; the relevance of causal accounting as topic and resource in sociology; the importance of Durkheim in the sociology of knowledge; and the great value of Berger’s and Luckmann’s book as a corrective to the undue individualism that has long been a feature of the social sciences in the English-speaking world. Even so, the paper is more recollection than analysis, and unreliable recollection at that, after many decades in which there has been time to forget, or even to reconstruct, a very great deal.     

Geopolitical Forecasting Skill in Strategic Intelligence

Extending research by the authors on intelligence forecasting, the forecasting skill of 3622 geopolitical forecasts extracted from strategic intelligence reports was examined. The codable subset of forecasts (N = 2013) was expressed with verbal probabilities (e.g., likely) and translated to numeric probability equivalents. This subset showed very good calibration and discrimination, but also underconfidence. There was no support for the hypothesis that forecasting skill was good mainly because of the general ease of forecasting topics. First, forecasting skill was as good among authoritative key judgments as in the general set. Second, forecasts that were assigned high degrees of certainty, indicative of ease, (p ≤ 0.05 or p ≥ 0.95) did not discriminate as well as less certain forecasts (0.05 < p < 0.95), and these subsets did not differ in calibration. Sensitivity and benchmarking tests further revealed that if the 1609 uncodable forecasts were all assigned forecast probabilities of .5 (i.e., if all followed a “cautious ignorance” rule), skill characteristics would still show a large effect size improvement over a variety of guesswork strategies. The findings support a cautiously optimistic assessment of forecasting skill in strategic intelligence and indicate that such skill is not primarily attributable to the selection of easy forecasting topics. However, the large proportion of uncodable cases suggests that intelligence forecasts could be improved by avoiding imprecise language that affects not only the codability but also, in all likelihood, the interpretability and indicative value of forecasts for intelligence consumers. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The role of career adaptabilities for mid-career changers

Career adaptability is mediated by personality factors and socio-psychological processes, with learning playing an important role. Using a five-fold career adapt-abilities competency framework (defined here as control, curiosity, commitment, confidence and concern), which was developed from the international quantitative study that is the focus of this special edition, an explicitly qualitative study of the career biographies of mid-career changers from two European countries was undertaken. Data from 64 in-depth interviews with adults in contrasting labor markets from Norway and the UK were analysed deductively, using a career adapt-abilities framework. Results demonstrate the utility of the framework, as well as how adaptive adults used both formal and informal learning to develop career adapt-ability competencies, over time, across occupations and occupational sectors. A key conclusion relates to how this career adapt-abilities competency framework could be used to motivate adults in mid-career to adopt behaviors that help them effect positive career change.     

Explaining the Relationship Among Fundamentalism and Authoritarianism: An Epistemic Connection

Although numerous studies have documented a strong, positive association between Right-wing Authoritarianism (RWA) and Religious Fundamentalism (RF), little empirical work has actually investigated the reasons for this relationship. In the present study we propose that a fundamentalist meaning system predicts a system of beliefs about knowledge and knowing (e.g., personal epistemology), which is then partially responsible for sustaining authoritarian attitudes. A convenience sample of 227 undergraduate students was given the RWA scale, the Epistemic Belief Inventory, and the Revised Religious Fundamentalism scale in an online survey. A partial mediation model was tested using structural equation modeling analysis, in which 2,000 bootstraps were taken from the observed covariance matrix to construct confidence intervals around each indirect effect. Findings from the present study support the partial mediation hypothesis, in which the effect of RF to RWA travels through belief in certain knowledge, simple knowledge, and omniscient authority.     

A case study approach to support needs following the death of a loved one

Abstract

The loss of a close relational partner, whether a family member, friend, spouse, or romantic partner, is one of the most difficult, and at the same time predictable, situations that individuals can experience. Although the grieving process is very individual, one's support network can either facilitate or hinder the coping process. This article utilizes a case study approach to consider the ways that one's social network provides emotional and instrumental support following the death of a close relational partner. A 21-year-old female whose fiance was killed in a traffic accident participated in three separate interviews at 4, 9, and 16 months after the accident. Interpretive analyses support the assertion that, as individuals progress through the various phases of bereavement, their needs for specific forms of social support change, as do their perceptions of what is helpful and unhelpful.     

The role of delight in driving repurchase intentions

A channel differentiator for brick-and-mortar retail stores is the availability of salespeople to assist customers directly in their purchase decision. This research considers two aspects of customer interactions with retail salespeople that lead to perceptions of extraordinary service and enhance repurchase intentions: customer comfort and salesperson expertise. Retail customers desire value-added informational assistance from the salesperson to minimize ambiguity associated with the product and to reduce the risk associated with a purchase decision. A retail salesperson needs to make customers feel comfortable so that the customer will share specific needs during the interaction, and the salesperson can recommend appropriate products and services. Our findings reveal that while both customer comfort and salesperson expertise positively influence satisfaction with the salesperson and customer delight, only customer delight leads to repurchase intentions. While satisfaction is a commonly asserted goal for retailers; the present research suggests that in a transaction-based environment, elevated emotions such as customer delight represent a more powerful predictor of repurchase intentions. This research provides evidence of trainable salesperson behaviors that enhance customer perceptions of extraordinary service and offer firms an opportunity for significant performance gains.