WHEN PREDICTIONS CREATE REALITY:

Abstract —Nelson and Dunlosky (Psychological Science, July 1991) reported that subjects making judgments of learning (JOLs) can be extremely ac curate at predicting subsequent recall performance on a paired-associate task when the JOL task is delayed for a short while after study They argued that this result Is surprising given the results of earlier research, as well as their own current experiment, indicating that JOLs are quite inaccurate when made immediately after study We note that the delayed-JOL procedure used by Nelson and Dunlosky invited covert recall practice (which was reported by their subjects) Retrieval practice is a welt-known determinant of subsequent recall Accordingly, Nelson and Dunlosky s findings can be explained by the simple assumption that people base delayed JOLs on an assessment of retrieval success which in turn influences their retrieval success on the subsequent recall test     

Subjective probabilities and betting quotients

This paper addresses the problem of why the conditions under which standard proofs of the Dutch Book argument proceed should ever be met. In particular, the condition that there should be odds at which you would be willing to bet indifferently for or against are hardly plausible in practice, and relaxing it and applying Dutch book considerations gives only the theory of upper and lower probabilities. It is argued that there are nevertheless admittedly rather idealised circumstances in which the classic form of the Dutch Book argument is valid.Probability is the very guide of life' (Bishop Butler).     

List of publications: Husserliana (also translations) and Phaenomenologica

List of publications: Husserliana (also translations) and Phaenomenologica     

Behavioral correlates of developmental expressive language disorder

The association of behavior problems with preschool language disorders has been documented extensively. However, researchers have typically failed to differentiate subgroups of language-impaired children, to use observational data in documenting the behavior disorders, or to study children at the youngest ages. Using a multimodal assessment, this study examined parent-child interaction and behavior problems in a clearly defined subgroup of language-impaired children, those with developmental expressive language disorder (ELD). These children exhibit a delay in expressive language compared with receptive language and nonverbal cognitive skills. Subjects were identified and studied at the youngest age at which the disorder can be assessed. A group of ELD children, averaging 27 months of age, was contrasted with a group of normally developing children, matched for age, sex, and receptive language ability. Groups were compared on observed parent-child interactions as well as maternal responses on the Parenting Stress Index, the Eyberg Child Behavior Inventory, and a behavior-related structured interview. ELD children, when compared with normally developing children, exhibited higher levels of negative behavior and were perceived as different by their parents.Portions of these data were presented at the biennial meeting of the Society for Research in Child Development, Baltimore, April 1987, and at the annual meeting of the Society for Pediatrie Research, Anaheim, California, April 1987. This work has been supported by NIMH grant no. 1 R03 MH41603 to author Fischel, and by NICHD grant no. 1 ROI HD19245 to authors Whitehurst and Fischel. It has also been supported by grants of equipment from Commodore Business Machines, Inc., Koala Corporation, and NEC Telephones. We thank the Department of Pediatrics at the Nassau County Medical Center for the use of their facilities.     

Hugs or shrugs: Parental and peer influence on continuity of involvement in sport by female adolescents

The study was designed to examine the influence of significant others (mothers, fathers, and male and female peers) on continuing involvement in sport by adolescent females. Survey data were collected from 376 girls using a forced-choice, self-administered questionnaire. Maintenance of involvement was measured by the proportion of possible years in which the respondents were involved in physical activity within each of three participation contexts (intramural, interschool, and community sport). Several indicators of significant other influence were used. The degree to which involvement in physical activity is maintained is positively related to the source, amount and type of influence received from significant others, and varied by the participation context. Overall, the socializing influence of significant others was able to account for 11% of the variance in intramural activity, 20% of the variance in interschool sport, and 10% of the variance in community-based activity.This study was funded by a grant from Fitness Canada.