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941.
The intelligence community (IC) is asked to predict outcomes that may often be inherently unpredictable-and is blamed for the inevitable forecasting failures, be they false positives or false negatives. To move beyond blame games of accountability ping-pong that incentivize bureaucratic symbolism over substantive reform, it is necessary to reach bipartisan agreements on performance indicators that are transparent enough to reassure clashing elites (to whom the IC must answer) that estimates have not been politicized. Establishing such transideological credibility requires (a) developing accuracy metrics for decoupling probability and value judgments; (b) using the resulting metrics as criterion variables in validity tests of the IC's selection, training, and incentive systems; and (c) institutionalizing adversarial collaborations that conduct level-playing-field tests of clashing perspectives. 相似文献
942.
Gifford EV Kohlenberg BS Hayes SC Pierson HM Piasecki MP Antonuccio DO Palm KM 《Behavior Therapy》2011,42(4):700-715
This study evaluated a treatment combining bupropion with a novel acceptance and relationship focused behavioral intervention based on the acceptance and relationship context (ARC) model. Three hundred and three smokers from a community sample were randomly assigned to bupropion, a widely used smoking cessation medication, or bupropion plus functional analytic psychotherapy (FAP) and acceptance and commitment therapy (ACT). Objective measures of smoking outcomes and self-report measures of acceptance and relationship processes were taken at pretreatment, posttreatment, 6-month, and 1-year follow-up. The combined treatment was significantly better than bupropion alone at 1-year follow-up with 7-day point prevalence quit rates of 31.6% in the combined condition versus 17.5% in the medication-alone condition. Acceptance and the therapeutic relationship at posttreatment statistically mediated 12-month outcomes. Bupropion outcomes were enhanced with an acceptance and relationship focused behavioral treatment. 相似文献
943.
In this article we note that in the coming years, a larger number of people will be experiencing retirement for a longer period of time than ever before and that despite this fact, many will find themselves unprepared for this stage of their lives. We review the literature on retirement preparation, structuring our review around the key questions that need to be addressed when planning for retirement: (a) What will I do? (b) How will I afford it? (c) Where will I live? and (d) Who will I share it with? We make a number of suggestions for research and practice. We conclude that although psychology has begun to play a role in understanding and addressing retirement preparation, there are considerable opportunities for psychologists to engage with this issue in their research and applied work. 相似文献
944.
Do children and adults use the same cues to judge whether someone is a reliable source of information? In 4 experiments, we investigated whether children (ages 5 and 6) and adults used information regarding accuracy, confidence, and calibration (i.e., how well an informant's confidence predicts the likelihood of being correct) to judge informants' credibility. We found that both children and adults used information about confidence and accuracy to judge credibility; however, only adults used information about informants' calibration. Adults discredited informants who exhibited poor calibration, but children did not. Requiring adult participants to complete a secondary task while evaluating informants' credibility impaired their ability to make use of calibration information. Thus, children and adults may differ in how they infer credibility because of the cognitive demands of using calibration. 相似文献
945.
Repression and sensitization as situational modes of coping with anxiety were examined as predictors of trait measures of cognitive avoidance and vigilance. In this study, 303 undergraduates saw a violent film clip to elicit anxiety. Increases in skin conductance level (SCL) and state anxiety (STA) from baseline were measured to identify repressors (high SCL, low STA) and contrast them with sensitizers (low SCL, high STA) and genuinely low anxious individuals (low SCL, low STA). State anger was also recorded. Trait measures of vigilance and cognitive avoidance were collected 2 weeks earlier. Significant SCL × STA interactions indicated that repressors scored higher on cognitive avoidance and lower on vigilance compared to sensitizers and low anxious participants. Repressors were less likely than sensitizers to report gaze avoidance during the clip. The anger by SCL interaction was nonsignificant, suggesting that repressors and sensitizers differ specifically in the processing of anxiety rather than negative affect in general. 相似文献
946.
Barbara J. Thayer-Bacon 《Studies in Philosophy and Education》2011,30(5):491-497
Thayer-Bacon tells her story in a conversational tone that traces her personal and professional roots as she describes various
chapters of her life: first as a philosopher, how she became involved in education, and then how that involvement became a
career as a philosopher of education, in a large teacher education program, and now at a research institution. She sketches
her philosophical contributions, as a pragmatist, feminist, postmodernist, and cultural studies scholar, to philosophy, philosophy
of education, and education. 相似文献
947.
Barbara Forrest 《Synthese》2011,178(2):331-379
Intelligent design creationism (ID) is a religious belief requiring a supernatural creator’s interventions in the natural
order. ID thus brings with it, as does supernatural theism by its nature, intractable epistemological difficulties. Despite
these difficulties and despite ID’s defeat in Kitzmiller v. Dover Area School District (2005), ID creationists’ continuing efforts to promote the teaching of ID in public school science classrooms threaten both
science education and the separation of church and state guaranteed by the U.S. Constitution. I examine the ID movement’s
failure to provide either a methodology or a functional epistemology to support their supernaturalism, a deficiency that consequently
leaves them without epistemic support for their creationist claims. My examination focuses primarily on ID supporter Francis
Beckwith, whose published defenses of teaching ID, as well as his other relevant publications concerning education, law, and
public policy, have been largely exempt from critical scrutiny. Beckwith’s work exhibits the epistemological deficiencies
of the supernaturally grounded views of his ID associates and of supernaturalists in general. I preface my examination of
Beckwith’s arguments with (1) philosopher of science Susan Haack’s clarification of the established naturalistic methodology
and epistemology of science and (2) discussions of the views of Beckwith’s ID associates Phillip Johnson and William Dembski.
Finally, I critique the religious exclusionism that Beckwith shares with his ID associates and the implications of his exclusionism
for public policy. 相似文献
948.
949.
The present study investigated a possible connection between speech processing and cochlear function. Twenty-two subjects with age range from 18 to 39, balanced for gender with normal hearing and without any known neurological condition, were tested with the dichotic listening (DL) test, in which listeners were asked to identify CV-syllables in a nonforced, and also attention-right, and attention-left condition. Transient evoked otoacoustic emissions (TEOAEs) were recorded for both ears, with and without the presentation of contralateral broadband noise. The main finding was a strong negative correlation between language laterality as measured with the dichotic listening task and of the TEOAE responses. The findings support a hypothesis of shared variance between central and peripheral auditory lateralities, and contribute to the attentional theory of auditory lateralization. The results have implications for the understanding of the cortico-fugal efferent control of cochlear activity. 相似文献
950.
When people synchronize taps with isochronously presented stimuli, taps usually precede the pacing stimuli [negative mean
asynchrony (NMA)]. One explanation of NMA [sensory accumulation model (SAM), Aschersleben in Brain Cogn 48:66–79, 2002] is that more time is needed to generate a central code for kinesthetic-tactile information than for auditory or visual stimuli.
The SAM predicts that raising the intensity of the pacing stimuli shortens the time for their sensory accumulation, thereby
increasing NMA. This prediction was tested by asking participants to synchronize finger force pulses with target isochronous
stimuli with various intensities. In addition, participants performed a simple reaction-time task, for comparison. Higher
intensity led to shorter reaction times. However, intensity manipulation did not affect NMA in the synchronization task. This
finding is not consistent with the predictions based on the SAM. Discrepancies in sensitivity to stimulus intensity between
sensorimotor synchronization and reaction-time tasks point to the involvement of different timing mechanisms in these two
tasks. 相似文献