Are there still things to do in Bayesian statistics?

From the outside, Bayesian statistics may seem like a closed little corner of probability. Once a prior is specified you compute! From the inside the field is filled with problems, conceptual and otherwise. This paper surveys some of what remains to be done and gives examples of the work in progress via a Bayesian peek into Feller volume I.This work had its origin in conversations with Marco Scarsini. Distance has prevented us from working things out jointly. This paper was presented at the workshop, we thank Eugenio Regazzini, Dominico Costantini and Maria Carla Galavotti for their help. Art Dempster, Carl Morris, John Pratt, Abner Shimony and Sandy Zabell raised interesting questions incorporated herein.     

Substitution and caloric regulation in a closed economy.

Three experiments were conducted to study the effect of an imperfect substitute for food on demand for food in a closed economy. In Experiments 1 and 2, rats pressed a lever for their entire daily food ration, and a fixed ratio of presses was required for each food pellet. In both experiments, the fixed ratio was held constant during a daily session but was increased between sessions. The fixed ratio was increased over a series of daily sessions once in the absence of concurrently available sucrose and again when sucrose pellets were freely available. For both series, increases in the fixed ratio reduced food intake, but body weight was reduced only in the no-sucrose condition. In the sucrose condition, body weight and total caloric intake (sucrose plus food) were relatively unaffected by increases in the fixed ratio. At all fixed ratios, food intake was proportionally reduced by the intake of sucrose. In Experiment 3, monkeys obtained food or saccharin by pressing keys; the fixed ratio of presses per food pellet was increased once when tap water was each monkey's only source of fluid, again when each monkey's water was sweetened with saccharin, and a third time when each monkey had concurrent access to the saccharin solution and plain water. Increases in the fixed ratio, but not the intake of the saccharin solution, reduced each monkey's food intake. Because neither rats' sucrose nor monkeys' saccharin intakes affected the slope of the respective demand curves for food, monkeys and rats increased their daily output of presses and thereby defended their daily intake of those complementary elements of food. However, sucrose reduced rats' food intake. The relative constancy of body weight and total caloric intake in the sucrose condition is consistent with the possibility that rats tended to regulate caloric intake.     

Spiritual issues in mental health care

Religious and spiritual issues in mental health are explored in the context of four conceptual models: the medical, the nursing, the humanistic, and the pastoral. This is done by looking at each model in terms of content, diagnostic focus, language and treatment goals, and primary qualities in the health provider.The models are illustrated by case studies gathered from a multidisciplinary setting. The discovery that each model can incorporate the religious and spiritual dimension in mental health care, but that each model does this in distinctive ways, is a key point.     

Alcoholism: A conflict of models

Adherents to the traditional model of alcoholism explain alcoholic behavior as a consequence of alcoholism. Alcoholism is identified as an unseen, unmeasured entity inherent in alcoholics. This concept parallels the thinking of Copernicus, Kepler, Galileo, and Newton, who believed in an unseen, unmeasurable creator behind the physical world. These traditional approaches contrast with the emergent model of alcoholism and twentieth-century scientific thought. Emergent scientific model adherents explain alcoholic behavior without resort to unseen factors. Since the traditional and emergent scientific models begin with different assumptions, model adherents experience communication difficulties. Future developments with determine which model will dominate the field of alcohol studies and treatment.     

Effects of delayed conditioned reinforcement in chain schedules.

The contingency between responding and stimulus change on a chain variable-interval 33-s, variable-interval 33-s, variable-interval 33-s schedule was weakened by interposing 3-s delays between either the first and second or the second and third links. No stimulus change signaled the delay interval and responses could occur during it, so the obtained delays were often shorter than the scheduled delay. When the delay occurred after the initial link, initial-link response rates decreased by an average of 77% with no systematic change in response rates in the second or third links. Response rates in the second link decreased an average of 59% when the delay followed that link, again with little effect on response rates in the first or third links. Because the effect of delaying stimulus change was comparable to the effect of delaying primary reinforcement in a simple variable-interval schedule, and the effect of the unsignaled delay was specific to the link in which the delay occurred, the results provide strong evidence for the concept of conditioned reinforcement.