Quantitative depictions of threatening phenomena in news reports. The scary world of frequency data

Two experiments addressed the question of whether news reports depicting base‐rate data indicative of increasing population size over time would assuage the apprehension and victimization risk associated with another news story depicting frequency increases in a threatening phenomenon during the same time period. Men exposed to the population data manifested lower levels of apprehension and victimization risk than men not exposed to such data, but women showed no reduction in either apprehension and victimization risk than men not exposed to such data, but women showed no reduction in either apprehension or victimization risk after exposure to population data. This interaction was replicated in both experiments. Experiment 2 demonstrated that the same interaction can be produced using base‐rate data other than that depicting population increases over time and that the effects of the base‐rate stories are not merely a product of distraction from the threatening story. Differences in apprehension levels, information processing styles, mathematical problems solving skill, and sex role response sets were considered as alternative explanations for the interaction.     

MORE ABOUT JUDGMENT AND REASON

Abstract: This paper is a response to Siegel 2004 . I take Siegel's remarks as a basis for clarifying, defending, and further developing my account of the role of judgment in a theory of rationality.