The relative influence of advice from human experts and statistical methods on forecast adjustments

Decision makers and forecasters often receive advice from different sources including human experts and statistical methods. This research examines, in the context of stock price forecasting, how the apparent source of the advice affects the attention that is paid to it when the mode of delivery of the advice is identical for both sources. In Study 1, two groups of participants were given the same advised point and interval forecasts. One group was told that these were the advice of a human expert and the other that they were generated by a statistical forecasting method. The participants were then asked to adjust forecasts they had previously made in light of this advice. While in both cases the advice led to improved point forecast accuracy and better calibration of the prediction intervals, the advice which apparently emanated from a statistical method was discounted much more severely. In Study 2, participants were provided with advice from two sources. When the participants were told that both sources were either human experts or both were statistical methods, the apparent statistical‐based advice had the same influence on the adjusted estimates as the advice that appeared to come from a human expert. However when the apparent sources of advice were different, much greater attention was paid to the advice that apparently came from a human expert. Theories of advice utilization are used to identify why the advice of a human expert is likely to be preferred to advice from a statistical method. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Cognitive development, reading and prosodic skills in children with cochlear implants

This report summarizes some of the results of studies in our laboratory exploring the development of cognitive, reading and prosodic skills in children with cochlear implantation (CI). The children with CI performed at significantly lower levels than the hearing comparison group on the majority of cognitive tests, despite showing levels of nonverbal ability. The differences between children with CI and hearing children were most pronounced on tasks with relatively high phonological processing demands, but they were not limited to phonological processing. Impairment of receptive and productive prosody was also evident in children with CI. Despite these difficulties, 75% of the children with CI reached a level of reading skill comparable to that of hearing children. The results are discussed with respect to compensation strategies in reading.     

Parent training for young Norwegian children with ODD and CD problems: Predictors and mediators of treatment outcome

Participants were 121 children, aged 4–8 years referred for conduct problems, and their mothers. A parent training intervention was implemented in two outpatient clinics in Norway. Treatment responders were defined as children scoring below a cut-off on the Eyberg Child Behavior Inventory, a score below an optimal cut-off for children in day-care and school as reported by teachers, in addition to a 30% reduction or greater in observed negative parenting. Self-reported parenting practices were explored as potential mediators. The results of logistic regression analyses showed that high levels of maternal stress, clinical levels of ADHD, and being a girl predicted a poorer outcome in conduct problems at home, while pretreatment clinical levels of ADHD predicted a poorer outcome as perceived by the teachers. Harsh and inconsistent parental disciplining emerged as significant partial mediators of changes in conduct problems, highlighting the importance of altering parenting practices to modify young children's conduct problems.     

The emergence of Cognitive Hearing Science

Cognitive Hearing Science or Auditory Cognitive Science is an emerging field of interdisciplinary research concerning the interactions between hearing and cognition. It follows a trend over the last half century for interdisciplinary fields to develop, beginning with Neuroscience, then Cognitive Science, then Cognitive Neuroscience, and then Cognitive Vision Science. A common theme is that an interdisciplinary approach is necessary to understand complex human behaviors, to develop technologies incorporating knowledge of these behaviors, and to find solutions for individuals with impairments that undermine typical behaviors. Accordingly, researchers in traditional academic disciplines, such as Psychology, Physiology, Linguistics, Philosophy, Anthropology, and Sociology benefit from collaborations with each other, and with researchers in Computer Science and Engineering working on the design of technologies, and with health professionals working with individuals who have impairments. The factors that triggered the emergence of Cognitive Hearing Science include the maturation of the component disciplines of Hearing Science and Cognitive Science, new opportunities to use complex digital signal-processing to design technologies suited to performance in challenging everyday environments, and increasing social imperatives to help people whose communication problems span hearing and cognition. Cognitive Hearing Science is illustrated in research on three general topics: (1) language processing in challenging listening conditions; (2) use of auditory communication technologies or the visual modality to boost performance; (3) changes in performance with development, aging, and rehabilitative training. Future directions for modeling and the translation of research into practice are suggested.     

Cultivating the Places of Knowledge

The discussion of universities anddemocracy has conventionally dealt first andforemost with the curriculum, or with thespirit of openness and tolerance whichcharacterises the scientific inquiry. In thisarticle I have added a discussion of thesituatedness of knowledge and knowledgeproduction, and, consequently, a discussion ofthe situated character of other roles of theuniversity, including the democratic role. Inthe light of the regress of political partiesand traditional popular movements – phenomenawhich seem to be true both as regardsmembership numbers and as regards level ofactivity – the role as a locally andregionally situated meeting place for avitalisation and defence of democracy seems apromising one for the contemporary university.The article has also emphasised the linksbetween culture, social capital (``the socialfabric') in the surrounding society, and theeconomic growth and welfare of the city andregion. With concepts such as Bildung (oreducation), civic competence (or civility), andculture, and I have tried to draw our attentionto the actual ``places of knowledge,' whoseimportance will certainly grow in the years tocome. The care, the cultivation, and thequalification of these places into supportinginfrastructures for cultural life, creativity,industry, and democracy should be seen as acoherent, holistic mission. It needsrecognition, and articulation, by all those whoare interested in the university as asignificant social factor: politicians,industry, the cultural sector, localcommunities, and, obviously, the academiccommunity itself.     

Recollective experience in odor recognition: Influences of adult age and familiarity

We examined recollective experience in odor memory as a function of age, intention to learn, and familiarity. Young and older adults studied a set of familiar and unfamiliar odors with incidental or intentional encoding instructions. At recognition, participants indicated whether their response was based on explicit recollection (remembering), a feeling of familiarity (knowing), or guessing. The results indicated no age-related differences in the distribution of experiential responses for unfamiliar odors. By contrast, for familiar odors the young demonstrated more explicit recollection than the older adults, who produced more know and guess responses. Intention to learn was unrelated to recollective experience. In addition, the observed age differences in remember responses for familiar odors were eliminated when odor naming was statistically controlled. This suggests that age-related deficits in activating specific odor knowledge (i.e., odor names) play an important role for age differences in recollective experience of olfactory information.     

SOME VIEWPOINTS ON WOMAN'S INNER SPACE

In this paper, illusion is examined as a prerequisite and necessary medium for the analysand's finding the genuine subjective reality of his own in the psycho-analytic interaction. Two kinds of illusion are discussed The first of them, transference illusion, is well-known, as is its understanding as a simultaneous existence of experiences stemming from different levels of reality. At its side, the author introduces the concept of developmental illusion, as an essential constituent of the analytic process. As contrasted to transference illusion, the wishes inherent in a developmental illusion have never become meaningfully represented in the analysand's mind. These interrupted developmental needs attaining shape and meaning, and thus the possibility to develop further in the analytic relationship, is dependent on the analyst's ability and ways to receive and meet the analysand's activated developmental illusion. The rôle of the analyst's ways to reach and convey his understanding is considered decisive in this process.     

Where's the impairment: An examination of factors that impact sustained attention following a stressor

This contribution examines the emotional engagement of men and women when reading narrative texts, aiming to see under which textual conditions men and women turn out to be different from or similar to each other in what they think and feel during reception. As part of an experimental mixed-methods study, male and female readers are asked to read either experience-type texts (focusing on inner experiences of characters) or action-type texts (focusing on actions as part of a suspenseful plot) and report their engagement on questionnaire scales and in written protocols. Results show that men and women differ in their engagement when reading action texts and in their emotional affinity to plots. They are highly similar when reading the experience texts, however, and in their affinity to characters. This study underlines that the emotional responses of males and females during reading are highly dependent on (con)textual cues.     

Parenting stress and external stressors as predictors of maternal ratings of child adjustment

This study sought to disentangle the effects of different kinds of stress on maternal ratings of child externalizing and internalizing problems, social inhibition, and social competence, with a primary focus on parenting stress. The relations were explored in a sample consisting of mothers of 436 children (M_age = 7 years) in Sweden. Half the sample had had early clinical contacts during infancy due to child regulation problems, and the rest were mothers without known such early contacts. Demographic factors, family stressors, and parenting stress were examined in stress – adjustment models. Family stressors were clinical contact during infancy, current child and parent health problems, recent negative life events, and insufficient social support. Parenting stress as a mediator of the effect of other stressors on rated child adjustment was tested as was social support as a moderator of the effect of parenting stress on adjustment. The results showed that a higher parenting stress level was associated with maternal ratings of more externalizing and internalizing behaviors, more social inhibition, and lower social competence. Other family stressors and background variables were also found to be of importance, mainly for externalizing and internalizing problems and to some extent for social competence. Social inhibition had a unique relation to parenting stress only. Parenting stress mediated effects of other stressors in twelve models, whereas social support had no moderating effect on the link between parenting stress and child adjustment. Thus, parenting stress seems to be an important overarching construct. Clinical implications are proposed.