Farewell to certitude: Einstein's novelty on Induction and Deduction, Fallibilism

In the late 19th century great changes in theories of light and electricity were in direct conflict with certitude, the view that scientific knowledge is infallible. What is, then, the epistemic status of scientific theory? To resolve this issue Duhem and Poincaré proposed images of fallible knowledge, Instrumentalism and Conventionalism, respectively. Only in 1919–1922, after Einstein's relativity was published, he offered arguments to support Fallibilism, the view that certainty cannot be achieved in science. Though Einstein did not consider Duhem's Instrumentalism, he argued against Poincaré's Conventionalism. Hitherto, Einstein's Fallibilism, as presented at first in a rarely known essay of 1919, was left in the dark. Recently, Howard obscured its meaning. Einstein's essay was never translated into English. In my paper I provide its translation and attempt to shed light on Einstein's view and its context; I also direct attention to Einstein's images of philosophical opportunism in scientific practice.     

Links Between Anxiety and Allergies: Psychobiological Reality or Possible Methodological Bias?

ABSTRACT The objective of the study was to examine the link between anxiety and allergies to establish whether it reflects a psychobiological reality or a possible methodological bias. A cohort of 1,037 children enrolled in the study. Anxiety disorders were assessed between 11 and 21 years. Anxious personality was assessed at 18 years. Allergies were examined at 21 years by (a) self reports, (b) skin pricks, and (c) serum total immunoglobulin E (IgE). Self-reported allergies were predicted by recurrent anxiety disorders (OR [95% CI]=1.56 [1.06–2.30], p =.023) and self-reports of anxious personality (OR [95% CI]=1.67 [1.17–2.37], p =.004): Objectively verified allergies were not. These results suggest that the link between anxiety and allergies may reflect a methodological artifact rather than a psychobiological reality.     

The content validity of juvenile psychopathy: an empirical examination

This study examined the content validity of a juvenile psychopathy measure, the Childhood Psychopathy Scale (CPS; D. R. Lynam, 1997), based on a downward translation of an adult instrument, the Hare Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R; R. D. Hare, 1991). The CPS was compared with two other indices of juvenile psychopathy: (a) an index derived from expert ratings and (b) an empirical index based on correlations with adult psychopathy. The 100 items of the Common Language Q-Sort (CLQ; A. Caspi et al., 1992) provided a common metric for the comparison. Psychopathy and personality were assessed at age 13 years with the mother-reported CPS and the CLQ. Psychopathy was assessed at age 24 years with the interviewer-rated Psychopathy Checklist: Screening Version (PCL:SV; S. D. Hart, D. N. Cox, & R. D. Hare, 1995). Data from over 250 participants of the middle sample of the Pittsburgh Youth Study were used to examine these relations. Item content analyses demonstrated considerable overlap among the three indices, indicating that the downward translation utilizes criteria similar to those of experts and the empirically-derived measure. In addition, these indices, even after removing overlapping items, demonstrated considerable convergence, also supporting the content validity of the downward translation. These results suggest that the downward translation method is adequate for understanding the juvenile psychopathy construct.     

Mothers and Children as Informants of Bullying Victimization: Results from an Epidemiological Cohort of Children

Stressful events early in life can affect children’s mental health problems. Collecting valid and reliable information about children’s bad experiences is important for research and clinical purposes. This study aimed to (1) investigate whether mothers and children provide valid reports of bullying victimization, (2) examine the inter-rater reliability between the two informants, (3) test the predictive validity of their reports with children’s emotional and behavioral problems and (4) compare the genetic and environmental etiology of bullying victimization as reported by mothers and children. We assessed bullying victimization in the Environmental-Risk (E-Risk) Longitudinal Twin Study, a nationally-representative sample of 1,116 families with twins. We collected reports from mothers and children during private interviews, including detailed narratives. Findings showed that we can rely on mothers and children as informants of bullying victimization: both informants provided information which adhered to the definition of bullying as involving repeated hurtful actions between peers in the presence of a power imbalance. Although mothers and children modestly agreed with each other about who was bullied during primary and secondary school, reports of bullying victimization from both informants were similarly associated with children’s emotional and behavioral problems and provided similar estimates of genetic and environmental influences. Findings from this study suggest that collecting information from multiple informants is ideal to capture all instances of bullying victimization. However, in the absence of child self-reports, mothers can be considered as a viable alternative, and vice versa.     

Shared experiences and the similarity of personalities: a longitudinal study of married couples.

Do spouses become more similar over time? What processes contribute to enduring similarities between them? Using the 20-year Kelly Longitudinal Study of couples, no support for the hypothesis that couples increasingly resemble each other with time was found. Rather, couples maintain the same degree of similarity across 20 years. Structural equation analyses suggest that the shared environmental experiences of couples play a significant role in maintaining these similarities over time. We distinguish the shared marital environment from the shared rearing environment and consider developmental and dynamic-relational factors that moderate the relative importance of nonshared and shared environmental experiences in life-span personality development. Whereas nonshared influences in one's family of origin contribute to development in childhood and adolescence, shared influences in one's family of destination may contribute a great deal to development in adulthood.     

Predicting the counterproductive employee in a child-to-adult prospective study

The present research tested the relations between a battery of background factors and counterproductive work behaviors in a 23-year longitudinal study of young adults (N = 930). Background information, such as diagnosed adolescent conduct disorder, criminal conviction records, intelligence, and personality traits, was assessed before participants entered the labor force. These background factors were combined with work conditions at age 26 to predict counterproductive work behaviors at age 26. The results showed that people diagnosed with childhood conduct disorder were more prone to commit counterproductive work behaviors in young adulthood and that these associations were partially mediated by personality traits measured at age 18. Contrary to expectations, criminal convictions that occurred prior to entering the workforce were unrelated to counterproductive work behaviors. Job conditions and personality traits had independent effects on counterproductive work behaviors, above and beyond background factors.     

Low self-esteem during adolescence predicts poor health, criminal behavior, and limited economic prospects during adulthood

Using prospective data from the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study birth cohort, the authors found that adolescents with low self-esteem had poorer mental and physical health, worse economic prospects, and higher levels of criminal behavior during adulthood, compared with adolescents with high self-esteem. The long-term consequences of self-esteem could not be explained by adolescent depression, gender, or socioeconomic status. Moreover, the findings held when the outcome variables were assessed using objective measures and informant reports; therefore, the findings cannot be explained by shared method variance in self-report data. The findings suggest that low self-esteem during adolescence predicts negative real-world consequences during adulthood.     

Work experiences and personality development in young adulthood

This longitudinal study provides an analysis of the relationship between personality traits and work experiences with a special focus on the relationship between changes in personality and work experiences in young adulthood. Longitudinal analyses uncovered 3 findings. First, measures of personality taken at age 18 predicted both objective and subjective work experiences at age 26. Second, work experiences were related to changes in personality traits from age 18 to 26. Third, the predictive and change relations between personality traits and work experiences were corresponsive: Traits that "selected" people into specific work experiences were the same traits that changed in response to those same work experiences. The relevance of the findings to theories of personality development is discussed.     

Neurocognitive impairments in boys on the life-course persistent antisocial path

This study addresses 5 unresolved issues in the neuropsychology of antisocial behavior using a community sample of 325 school boys in whom neurocognitive measures were assessed at age 16-17 years. Antisocial behavior measures collected from age 7-17 years were cluster analyzed and produced 4 groups: control, childhood-limited, adolescent-limited, and life-course persistent. Those on the lifecourse persistent path and also on the childhood-limited path were particularly impaired on spatial and memory functions. Impairments were independent of abuse, psychosocial adversity, head injury, and hyperactivity. Findings provide some support for the life-course persistent versus adolescent-limited theory of antisocial behavior and suggest that (a) neurocognitive impairments are profound and not artifactual and (b) childhood-limited antisocials may not be free of long-lasting functional impairment.     

The interaction between impulsivity and neighborhood context on offending: the effects of impulsivity are stronger in poorer neighborhoods

This research blends 2 traditions of theorizing on the causes of crime, one focused on the role of individual differences and the other focused on structural and contextual variables. Two related studies examined the relations among impulsivity, neighborhood context, and juvenile offending. The first, cross-sectional study uses a large sample of 13-year-old inner-city boys, whereas the second, longitudinal study offers a conceptual replication using 17-year-old inner-city boys who are a subset of the original sample. Across both studies, results indicate that the effects of impulsivity on juvenile offending are stronger in poorer neighborhoods. Furthermore, nonimpulsive boys in poor neighborhoods were at no greater risk for delinquency than nonimpulsive boys in better-off neighborhoods.