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We used the take‐the‐best heuristic to develop a model to forecast the popular two‐party vote shares in U.S. presidential elections. The model draws upon information about how voters expect the candidates to deal with the most important issue facing the country. We used cross‐validation to calculate a total of 1000 out‐of‐sample forecasts, one for each of the last 100 days of the ten U.S. presidential elections from 1972 to 2008. Ninety‐seven per cent of forecasts correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote. The model forecasts were competitive compared to forecasts from methods that incorporate substantially more information (e.g., econometric models and the Iowa Electronic Markets). The purpose of the model is to provide fast advice on which issues candidates should stress in their campaign. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Armstrong RB Damaraju C Ascher S Schwarzman L O'Neill J Starr HL 《Journal of attention disorders》2012,16(8):697-705
Objective: The authors evaluated the time course of the treatment effect of Osmotic-Release Oral System methylphenidate (OROS(?) MPH) HCl (Concerta(?), Raritan, NJ) CII in children with ADHD. Method: Data were combined from two double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled, cross-over, analog classroom studies in children (9-12 years) with ADHD. Participants received an individualized dose of placebo or OROS(?) MPH on two laboratory school days. Permanent Product Math Test and Swanson, Kotkin, Agler, M-Flynn, and Pelham scores were evaluated 0.5 hr before dosing and 1, 2, 4, 10, 11, and 12.5 hr post dose. Analysis used a repeated-measures mixed model. Results: Treatment effects were present at all postdose assessment points (p < .0001 for all comparisons, n = 139). Adverse events were similar to previous reports for OROS(?) MPH. Conclusion: A robust treatment effect occurred with OROS(?) MPH; onset was at 1 hr and persisted for at least 12.5 hr after dosing. 相似文献
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Armstrong MI Milch H Curtis P Endress P 《American journal of community psychology》2012,49(3-4):517-525
This article describes how a system of care operated by a county government agency used a fiscal crisis as the opportunity to reform its children's system. A cross-system response to the crisis is outlined that includes a system of care framework coupled with a business model, inter-departmental collaboration and leadership, the use of strategic reinvestment strategies, and a quality improvement system that focuses on key indicators. Implementation of the system change is described with a specific focus on cross-system entry points, financing strategies that re-allocate funds from deep-end programs to community-based services, and management oversight through the use of performance indicators to monitor and support effectiveness. This article examines the results of the system change, including the diversion of youth from system penetration, the reduction in residential treatment bed days, the re-allocation of these savings to community-based services, and the outcomes of children who were diverted from residential care and served in the community. The article offers a number of recommendations for other communities contemplating system change. 相似文献
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Carly E. McCord Jeremy J. Saenz Trey W. Armstrong Timothy R. Elliott 《Counselling psychology quarterly》2015,28(3):324-344
Training programs that integrate the use of technology are needed to prepare students for the future of service delivery in psychology. Training opportunities in telepsychology can equip students to develop, implement, and evaluate innovative modalities for mental health care. However, few options are available for trainees seeking to acquire these experiences, and while guidelines for service provision using technology are emerging, guidelines for and documented examples of training programs in telepsychology are virtually non-existent. The Telehealth Counseling Clinic, located at the Texas A&M Health Science Center, has developed a training model to prepare the next generation of psychologists to work with new technology to provide counseling services to low-income and uninsured individuals living in designated Mental Health Professional Shortage Areas in rural Texas. Training competencies necessary to serve this population through telepsychology are discussed and preliminary evaluation data of the training program are presented. 相似文献
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