Predicting elections from the most important issue: A test of the take‐the‐best heuristic

We used the take‐the‐best heuristic to develop a model to forecast the popular two‐party vote shares in U.S. presidential elections. The model draws upon information about how voters expect the candidates to deal with the most important issue facing the country. We used cross‐validation to calculate a total of 1000 out‐of‐sample forecasts, one for each of the last 100 days of the ten U.S. presidential elections from 1972 to 2008. Ninety‐seven per cent of forecasts correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote. The model forecasts were competitive compared to forecasts from methods that incorporate substantially more information (e.g., econometric models and the Iowa Electronic Markets). The purpose of the model is to provide fast advice on which issues candidates should stress in their campaign. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Time Course of Treatment Effect of OROS(R) Methylphenidate in Children With ADHD

Objective: The authors evaluated the time course of the treatment effect of Osmotic-Release Oral System methylphenidate (OROS(?) MPH) HCl (Concerta(?), Raritan, NJ) CII in children with ADHD. Method: Data were combined from two double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled, cross-over, analog classroom studies in children (9-12 years) with ADHD. Participants received an individualized dose of placebo or OROS(?) MPH on two laboratory school days. Permanent Product Math Test and Swanson, Kotkin, Agler, M-Flynn, and Pelham scores were evaluated 0.5 hr before dosing and 1, 2, 4, 10, 11, and 12.5 hr post dose. Analysis used a repeated-measures mixed model. Results: Treatment effects were present at all postdose assessment points (p < .0001 for all comparisons, n = 139). Adverse events were similar to previous reports for OROS(?) MPH. Conclusion: A robust treatment effect occurred with OROS(?) MPH; onset was at 1 hr and persisted for at least 12.5 hr after dosing.     

A Business Model for Managing System Change Through Strategic Financing and Performance Indicators: A Case Study

This article describes how a system of care operated by a county government agency used a fiscal crisis as the opportunity to reform its children's system. A cross-system response to the crisis is outlined that includes a system of care framework coupled with a business model, inter-departmental collaboration and leadership, the use of strategic reinvestment strategies, and a quality improvement system that focuses on key indicators. Implementation of the system change is described with a specific focus on cross-system entry points, financing strategies that re-allocate funds from deep-end programs to community-based services, and management oversight through the use of performance indicators to monitor and support effectiveness. This article examines the results of the system change, including the diversion of youth from system penetration, the reduction in residential treatment bed days, the re-allocation of these savings to community-based services, and the outcomes of children who were diverted from residential care and served in the community. The article offers a number of recommendations for other communities contemplating system change.     

Training the next generation of counseling psychologists in the practice of telepsychology

Training programs that integrate the use of technology are needed to prepare students for the future of service delivery in psychology. Training opportunities in telepsychology can equip students to develop, implement, and evaluate innovative modalities for mental health care. However, few options are available for trainees seeking to acquire these experiences, and while guidelines for service provision using technology are emerging, guidelines for and documented examples of training programs in telepsychology are virtually non-existent. The Telehealth Counseling Clinic, located at the Texas A&M Health Science Center, has developed a training model to prepare the next generation of psychologists to work with new technology to provide counseling services to low-income and uninsured individuals living in designated Mental Health Professional Shortage Areas in rural Texas. Training competencies necessary to serve this population through telepsychology are discussed and preliminary evaluation data of the training program are presented.     

Neurodevelopment and chronic illness: Mechanisms of disease and treatment

Successful treatment of many childhood diseases once considered terminal has resulted in the emergence of long-term effects of the disease or consequences of treatment that were previously unrecognized. Many of these long-term effects involve the central nervous system (CNS) and are developmental in the way that they emerge over time. Because we are now able to observe the natural history of childhood diseases such as sickle cell anemia or HIV, or the consequences of treatment of disease such as leukemia, brain tumors, or kidney disease, we are also able to study a number of biological mechanisms that result in long-term neurocognitive impairment. While some of the neurodevelopmental outcomes can be directly linked to structural damage of the CNS, other systems (e.g., hematologic, immunologic, pulmonary) appear to play crucial indirect roles in the development of the CNS and neurocognitive abilities because of the way that they affect the course of brain development and activity of the brain across time. Important interactions between acute disease factors, biological mechanisms, age at the time of disease or treatment effect, and disruptions in patterns of development after successful treatment or management all provide support for a neurodevelopmental model of childhood chronic illness. Testing this model may make it possible to more accurately predict the timing and degree of severity of long-term neurodevelopmental consequences, provide guidance for improved treatment and prevention, and offer better understanding of neurodevelopmental disruptions that occur in other non-chronic illness related disabilities.