A Puzzle about Knowing Conditionals

We present a puzzle about knowledge, probability and conditionals. We show that in certain cases some basic and plausible principles governing our reasoning come into conflict. In particular, we show that there is a simple argument that a person may be in a position to know a conditional the consequent of which has a low probability conditional on its antecedent, contra Adams’ Thesis. We suggest that the puzzle motivates a very strong restriction on the inference of a conditional from a disjunction.     

Spatio-temporal organization during group formation in rats

In the present study, the dynamic process of group formation in eight unfamiliar rats was followed in order to reveal how the group becomes oriented together in time and space, in light of the complexity that accompanies grouping. The focus was on who, where, and when joined together. We found that rats preferred to be in companionship over remaining alone, with all the rats gradually shifting to share the same location as a resting place. Group formation can be viewed as a tri-phasic process, with some rats gradually becoming more social than others, and thus playing a key role in group formation. Starting with seemingly independent traveling, the rats gradually converged to share the same location as a terminal (home base) for roundtrips in the arena. Because such a terminal is considered as the organizer of an individual’s spatial behavior, the shared home-base location may be viewed as the organizer of spatial behavior of the entire group. Despite huddling together, the rats continued to travel alone or in duos throughout the 3 h of testing. We suggest that resting together and traveling alone or in duos enabled the maintenance of communal relationship while reducing the complexity involved in traveling in relatively large groups. Taken together, the present results demonstrate the dynamic process during which unfamiliar rats shift from independent to group spatial behavior.     

Possibility and probability

Conclusion De Finetti was a strong proponent of allowing 0 credal probabilities to be assigned to serious possibilities. I have sought to show that (pace Shimony) strict coherence can be obeyed provided that its scope of applicability is restricted to partitions into states generated by finitely many ultimate payoffs. When countable additivity is obeyed, a restricted version of ISC can be applied to partitions generated by countably many ultimate payoffs. Once this is appreciated, perhaps the compelling character of the Shimony argument will be less overwhelming and the attractiveness of de Finetti's more permissive attitude will become more apparent.I want to push the permissive tendency in de Finetti still further. It seems doubtful that RUIWC should be required as de Finetti apparently suggested. It is also excessively dogmatic and restrictive to require that the credal states of ideally situated rational agents be numerically definite (Levi 1974, 1980). And de Finetti's rejection of objectivism in statistics overreached itself when he dismissed objective probabilities as meaningless metaphysical artefacts (Levi 1986). In this respect, the philosophically most important lessons de Finetti has to teach us are to be found not in his celebrated representation theorem but in his discussions of the relations between 0-probability and possibility, conditional probability and countable additivity. Perhaps, the technical issues involved are remote and pedantic. But the attitude de Finetti sought to inculcate is of profound importance.Thanks are due to Teddy Seidenfeld whose comments have improved this paper substantially. He is not to blame for its lingering defects.     

The importance of including quality-of-life indices in international social and economic development activities

Psychology has not been a visible player in international social and economic development efforts. Through its demonstrated commitment to the concept of quality of life, psychology has an opportunity to help shape foreign policy and to improve the lives of countless people around the globe. Poverty has reached unacceptable limits of humanitarian tolerance and political consequence throughout the world. The United Nations estimates that 20% of the world's population now lives in conditions of absolute poverty in which there is an absence of even the bare essentials for living. Social and economic development efforts have often failed despite good intentions because they have often concentrated on improving peoples' material level of living but not their quality of life. This article addresses the need to include quality-of-life (QOL) indices in international social and economic development efforts. In addition, the article calls attention to the need to use valid cross-cultural measurement strategies (i.e., culturally equivalent) when assessing QOL across cultural and national boundaries. Current approaches to social and economic development rely heavily on interventions that do not reflect the actual peoples' perceptions of life satisfaction and subjective well-being. Self-serving political and economic national interests have kept new approaches to development from being implemented. New interventions must be holistic, decentralized, integrated, empowering, participatory, and human-resource directed, and must include culturally equivalent objective and subjective quality-of-life indices as the arbiters of success.     

Critical stages in mental development: Childhood breath holding spells (BHS)

The authors present the first part of a study on children with BHS (Breath Holding Spells) syndrome. These children were chosen in order to examine a “pathological” situation in infancy that was as close as possible to a “normal” one, and in which obvious somatic symptoms were associated with emotional states. Children with BHSS are not considered to have serious psychological disturbances, even if they are constantly referred to as intolerant of separation, stubborn, oppositional, or easy to temper tantrum. A reduced ability to tolerate frustration is evident in these children both from the patients' history and clinical observation. Parents usually relate BHS to situations in which the child is denied something or gets scolded. The children were observed during three sessions, both with and without the mother, according to a grid used at our Center. Patients are presented to illustrate certain recurrent features in play and interaction with mother. The data suggest that these children stagnate in an area of incomplete mental representation; something makes them oscillate between two states; in one of them, the mental representation of the object and of the bond with it is possible; in the other, the mental representation of the separation, which entails the recognition of the object, is felt as dangerous.     

Toleration and prejudice-reduction: Two ways of improving intergroup relations

While a large body of social psychological research has shed light on the nature of prejudice and how to reduce it, we argue that such work does not address situations of cultural or religious outgroup beliefs and practices that are considered incompatible with one's own. The present theoretical article contrasts a prejudice-reduction approach with a toleration-based approach to consider the differences each have with regard to the attitude object they focus upon, the perceived reasonableness of the attitude, and the behavioral consequences each may lead to. In doing so, we consider the psychological processes involved in whether the negative attitude leads to negative actions. We conclude by arguing that a toleration-based approach forms an important addition to the psychological thinking about cultural diversity and intergroup relations. Collectively, the present work makes a novel contribution to the social psychological literature by stimulating theory development and raising novel questions for empirical research.     

Parental discipline and affection and children's prosocial behavior: genetic and environmental links

The authors investigated genetic and environmental contributions to the relationships between children's (N=9,319 twin pairs) prosocial behavior and parental positivity and negativity toward them. Children's prosocial behavior was rated by parents at ages 3, 4, and 7 and by teachers at age 7. At each age, parents described their feelings and discipline toward each twin. Parental positivity was indexed by positive feelings and positive, non-coercive discipline, and parental negativity was indexed by negative feelings and coercive, punitive discipline. Genetics and the environment both contributed to individual differences in prosocial behavior and in parenting. At all ages, parental positivity correlated positively, and parental negativity correlated negatively with prosocial behavior. Genetic factors largely mediated the negative correlation between prosocial behavior and parental negativity. Shared environmental effects contributed mainly to the positive relationship between prosocial behavior and parental positivity. This pattern was found both cross-sectionally and longitudinally. The findings point to the importance of children's characteristics and of the parent-child relationship in family processes.     

Odor identification impairments in schizophrenia: relationship with demographic measures, clinical variables, and diagnostic subtypes

Smell identification deficits are consistently found in schizophrenia (SZ), but little is known about the nature and characterization of this deficit or its relationship to the phenomenology of the illness. This study aims to further delineate smell identification errors in SZ by examining the relationship of patient demographic differences with smell-identification performance. Our results showed that a patient's gender and education were related to odor-identification scores, with better performance seen in female patients and in those with greater educational attainment. However, there was no effect related to age, ethnicity, or socioeconomic status on odor identification. A smell identification deficit was also unrelated to clinical characteristics of the patients, including age at first hospitalization, number of psychiatric hospitalizations, and duration of illness. Odor identification also did not differ by SZ subtype, nor between SZ and schizoaffective disorder patients. These findings emphasize that odor identification deficits in SZ are unrelated to clinical illness features, cannot be explained by other confounds related to olfaction in the general population, and may be core features related to the SZ disease process.     

The Authoritarian Personality, 50 Years Later: What Questions Are There for Political Psychology?

Adorno, Frenkel-Brunswik, Levinson, and Sanford's The Authoritarian Personality is probably the most deeply flawed work of prominence in political psychology. The methodological, procedural, and substantive errors of this study are well known, but they are frequently simply attributed to poor methodological judgments, issues of scaling (such as response set), or Freudian theories that legitimated circular interpretations. But a more fundamental bias arose from the attempt to empirically verify the existence of a "type" of person whom the researchers thought dangerous and with whom they did not empathize. This attempt involved two dangerous procedures: (1) the fusion of nominalist research procedures (in which empirical results were used to type respondents) with a realist interpretation of types (in which some people "just were" authoritarians and others not), and (2) a theoretically rich critique of the authoritarians and a lack of interest in the psychodynamics of liberals. This combination led to an intrinsically biased interpretive project that could not help but accumulate damning evidence about authoritarians. These subtler problems have haunted contemporary work in political psychology that avoids the methodological problems of Adorno et al.; Altemeyer's work on authoritarianism, which not only is free from the defects of the Adorno et al. study but also involves some methodologically exemplary experiments, is similarly distorted by asymmetries. The same fundamental problems seem to be at the heart of the weaknesses of the theory of symbolic racism to which critics have pointed. Political psychologists should regard The Authoritarian Personality as a cautionary example of bias arising from the choice of methodological assumptions.