Seeing is believing: Priors,trust, and base rate neglect

Kahneman and Tversky (1973) described an effect they called ‘insensitivity to prior probability of outcomes’, later dubbed base rate neglect, which describes people’s tendency to underweight prior information in favor of new data. As probability theory requires that prior probabilities be taken into account, via Bayes’ theorem, the fact that most people fail to do so has been taken as evidence of human irrationality and, by others, of a mismatch between our cognitive processes and the questions being asked (Cosmides & Tooby, 1996). In contrast to both views, we suggest that simplistic Bayesian updating using base rates is not necessarily rational. To that end, we present experiments in which base rate neglect is often the right strategy, and show that people’s base rate usage varies systematically as a function of the extent to which the data that make up a base rate are perceived as trustworthy.     

Theory use in social predictions

In a commentary to our article on the role of theory and simulation in social predictions, Krueger (2012) argues that the role of theory is neglected in social psychology for a good reason. He considers evidence indicating that people readily generalize from themselves to others. In response, we stress the role of theoretical knowledge in predicting other people’s behavior. Importantly, prediction by simulation and prediction by theory can lead to high as well as to low correlations between own and predicted behavior. This renders correlations largely useless for identifying the prediction strategy. We argue that prediction by theory is a serious alternative to prediction by simulation, and that reliance on correlation has led to a bias toward simulation.     

Epistemic trust: modeling children's reasoning about others' knowledge and intent

A core assumption of many theories of development is that children can learn indirectly from other people. However, indirect experience (or testimony) is not constrained to provide veridical information. As a result, if children are to capitalize on this source of knowledge, they must be able to infer who is trustworthy and who is not. How might a learner make such inferences while at the same time learning about the world? What biases, if any, might children bring to this problem? We address these questions with a computational model of epistemic trust in which learners reason about the helpfulness and knowledgeability of an informant. We show that the model captures the competencies shown by young children in four areas: (1) using informants’ accuracy to infer how much to trust them; (2) using informants’ recent accuracy to overcome effects of familiarity; (3) inferring trust based on consensus among informants; and (4) using information about mal‐intent to decide not to trust. The model also explains developmental changes in performance between 3 and 4 years of age as a result of changing default assumptions about the helpfulness of other people.     

Reanalysis of Eysenck’s,Gray’s,and Zuckerman’s structural trait models based on a new measure: The Zuckerman–Kuhlman–Aluja Personality Questionnaire (ZKA-PQ)

The aim of this study was to explore the relationships of the dimensions and facets of the Zuckerman–Kuhlman–Aluja Personality Questionnaire (ZKA-PQ) with other psychobiological personality measures: the EPQ-RS (Eysenck Personality Questionnaire Revised, shortened version), I₇ (Impulsiveness Questionnaire) and SPSRQ-20 (Sensitivity to Punishment and Sensitivity to Reward Questionnaire, 20-item version). It is intended to test if findings reported with Zuckerman’s previous instrument (ZK-PQ) about the relationships between the three biologic-factorial personality models are replicated, giving evidence about the validity of the ZKA-PQ. The sample analyzed was of 584 subjects (50.3% men and 49.7% women) from the Spanish general population. Correlational and factor analysis supported the expected relationships between similar constructs assessed by the ZKA-PQ and the other questionnaires based on Eysenck’s and Gray’s personality theories. On the other hand, the inclusion of the facets from the ZKA-PQ improved the validity of the questionnaire. Findings were discussed in the framework of the biological personality models, emphasizing the contribution of the ZKA-PQ to the psychobiological personality research.     

On Persons and Immortality Symposium on Pedro Tabensky,Happiness: Personhood,Community, Purpose

Abstract

This paper considers Tabensky’s method of critical introspection, and in particular the conception of personhood that informs it. By interrogating the lives of pure hedonism, divinity and immortality from our already existing conception of personhood, Tabensky argues that such lives are incompatible with what it is to be a person, and desiring to live them is therefore irrational. Concentrating on the example of immortality, I argue that, while there are undoubtedly disadvantages associated with the immortal life, these are contingent rather than essential to the notion of being a person. In fact, we have very little idea of the boundaries of that concept. The paper concludes by looking at the consequences of Tabensky’s approach for issues surrounding moral vision and improvement, and new technologies of the person.     

John Derg Sutherland (25 April 1905–14 June 1991)

In the author's view, closeness between patient and analyst enables the patient to gain insight into the pain of separation and thus to tolerate it, but at the same time brings up, paradoxically, a sense of separateness difficult to deal with. A distinction is made between separation and separateness.

Through clinical material, the author tries to show that while analysis can help patients to come to grips with the pain of separation, it has limited effect on the profound core of affects which have to do with fear of death and emptiness — the affects pertaining to separation.

Ognuno sta solo sul cuor della terra trafitto da un raggio di sole: ed è subito sera.

—S. Quasimodo

     

Psychoanalysis and the political process

The Political Process is Society's mechanism for debating value systems. The term can also be used to describe a debate in a variety of other settings — subsystems of Society — about value systems. This paper is about the contributions that psychoanalysis, both as a theory and in its various applications, can make to the understanding of the process of debate and its setting. It is also about the implications for our conduct that arise from this understanding.     

The Cross-Cultural Generalizability of Zuckerman's Alternative Five-Factor Model of Personality

Although theories of stress have emphasized the critical role of the appraisal process, the use of dispositional measures of appraisal have not been readily investigated. Using a large multiethnic sample, we examined the factorial validity and dimensionality of a dispositional version of the Stress Appraisal Measure (SAM; Peacock &; Wong, 1990). Both exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses resulted in a 4-factor representation of dispositional appraisal fitting better than its originally proposed 6-factor representation. This 4-factor model was invariant across gender groups. Although the 6-factor model purported to measure 3 dimensions of primary appraisal and 3 dimensions of secondary appraisal, these factors were found to be highly unstable and had questionable internal consistency. In contrast, the more parsimonious 4-factor solution identified 4 relative distinct and reliable scales of appraisal: 3 primary (Challenge, Threat, and Centrality) and 1 secondary (Resources). These findings suggest that meaningful dispositional dimensions of appraisal can be derived and incorporated into trait–state models of the stress process.     

The Speech and Vocalization Patterns of Boys with ADHD Compared with Boys with Dyslexia and Boys Without Learning Disabilities

The domain-specific hypothesis of L. Cosmides (1989) and L. Cosmides and J. Tooby (1989, 1992) positing that conditional logic has its origin in the evolution of social exchange and in the detection of potential cheaters was tested against a more domain-general hypothesis positing that adult reasoning is logical and that errors in conditional reasoning arise from misunderstandings, not from a lack of logicality. The results of 5 experiments with undergraduate students (n = 682 for Experiments 1-4; n = 188 for Experiment 5), which involved a series of selection tasks that yielded specific predictions about participant performance, were not consistent with the cheater detection hypothesis. Findings supported the misunderstandings hypothesis and imply that adults possess general-purpose logical competence versus domain-specific modules.     

Interest as a Moderator in the Relationship Between Challenge/Skills Balance and Flow at Work: An Analysis at Within-Individual Level

Considering flow as a non-ergodic process (i.e. non-homogeneous across individuals and non-stationary over time) that happens at the within-individual level, in this research we work with Bakker’s model that propose flow as made up by three components: intrinsic motivation, enjoyment, and absorption. Taking into account that flow theory can be considered as an intrinsic motivation theory, and the recent proposals about the need to distinguish between pre-conditions of flow and the flow experience itself, we look at interest as a moderator between the challenge/skills balance and the experience of flow, rather than a component of the flow experience. A total of 3640 recordings were collected from a sample of 58 workers using an experience sampling method (several registers a day, during 21 working days). The data was analyzed using regression techniques in each participant (i.e. at within-individual level). Our work tries to respond to the following two research questions: Will interest play a moderating role in the relationship between challenge/skills balance and flow? Will a non-linear model (cusp catastrophe model) better explain the relationship among challenge/skills balance, interest, and flow? The results suggest that our hypotheses were correct: including interest as moderator better explains the relationship between challenge/skills balance and flow in comparison to a model without moderation (R² values change from 0.33 to 0.50). Additionally, carrying out the analysis following non-linear techniques explained more variance as well (R² = 0.67), and this increment was significant. These results support the idea that interest should be considered as a key precondition for the appearance of flow, and this relationship is non-linear. We could say that these findings are exemplary in the field and brings up questions for their application in further research.