An individual differences model for multiple regression

A model for multiple regression was developed which allows individual differences to emerge empirically. The model encompasses as special cases several of the previous attempts to improve psychological prediction by deviating from the usual linear multiple regression model. The model is tested with both artificial and real data. The results indicate that the model effectively reduces the variance of the error of prediction, and that the weights obtained are stable over different samples, and, to some extent, over different sets of predictors.This article is based upon a thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the doctoral degree at the University of Illinois. The author thanks Professor Ledyard R Tucker who served as committee chairman and offered considerable support and assistance.     

Agricultural policy and strategic investment in information technology

In this article the perspective shifts to the “upstream” end of the agricultural knowledge and information system (AKIS). Because knowledge policy and strategic decision-making are not the prerogative of the public sector, organizations such as cooperative unions and multinational companies are included. After considering the influence of the changing environment on the nature of the AKIS, the role of knowledge management and policy in the emerging knowledge and information market is examined. Special attention is given to public and private R&D. The article then looks where information technology (IT) fits in and what considerations determine strategic investment in IT projects and sustained services. Some of the European experiences with this strategic investment are evaluated.     

PIGEONS ARE SENSITIVE TO THE SPATIAL ORGANIZATION OF COMPLEX VISUAL STIMULI

Abstract— Two experiments investigated the role of spatial organisation in the discrimination and generalization of complex visual stimuli by pigeons. In Experiment 1, after pigeons had been trained to discriminate line drawings of four objects, they were tested with novel pictures in which the same component parts of the objects were spatially rearranged. The spatially scrambled pictures led to a dramatic drop in recognition accuracy, hut responding remained above chance. In Experiment 2, pigeons reached a high level of discriminative performance when required to choose among four different spatial arrangements of the same object parts. These results confirm Cerella's (1980) conclusion that pigeons discriminate the component parts of complex visual stimuli, but. unless it is assumed that the scrambling deleted or created emergent features, the results disconfirm his conclusion that spatial organization plays no role in pigeons' picture perception.     

ELI: An Interactive Elicitation Technique for Subjective Probability Distributions

Uncertain knowledge about continuous quantities is usually formalized through subjective probability distributions (SPD′s). However, results from past experimental research have often pointed to the rather poor quality of SPD′s. Moreover, previous attempts to improve SPD quality frequently appeared to be only partly successful; overconfidence especially proved to be an exceptionally persistent phenomenon. In the present study, method-induced biases in particular are considered to be responsible for the poor quality of SPD′s, and an alternative means for eliciting uncertain knowledge was designed to meet fundamental quality criteria to a more satisfactory degree. The direct realization of a proper scoring rule in a graphically oriented interactive computer program is one of the central features of this new elicitation technique, ELI. An experiment with 48 subjects was carried out to evaluate ELI performance and to compare it with the performance of (a) an existing elicitation technique and (b) a simple technique that only asks for a best guess and a lower and upper bound. The three techniques were evaluated and compared with respect to their contribution to reliable and valid SPD′s and with respect to their practical usefulness. The results indicated that for ELI the fundamental requirements were realized to a great extent. Furthermore, compared with the two other techniques, ELI performance appeared to be superior. In particular, only with the support of ELI did overconfidence appear to be almost absent.     

Anxiety and the spelling and use in sentences of threat/neutral homophones

The disambiguation of threat/neutral homophones was investigated in high- and low-trait anxiety subjects who had been exposed to either a positive or a negative mood manipulation procedure. Subjects were required first to spell each auditorily presented word and second, to generate and speak a sentence using the word. Difference indices were calculated for the spelling and the sentence usage data, i.e. the number of threat minus neutral interpretations. Examination of these indices revealed that subjects exposed to the negative mood manipulation procedure produced relatively more threat than neutral interpretations (for both spelling and sentence usage) than did subjects exposed to the positive mood manipulation procedure. Multiple regression analyses revealed that both the trait anxiety and mood manipulation variables contributed significantly to the prediction of the difference index on the spelling task. In the analysis of the use of homophones in sentences, only the mood manipulation variable contributed significantly to the prediction of the difference index on the sentence usage task.     

Family psychopathology: Cross training graduate marital and family therapy students in family assessment and psychiatric nosology

The structure of a course entitled Family Therapy with Major Psychopathology taught annually in the Mercer University Graduate Marriage and Family Therapy Program is presented. An epistemological presentation regarding the interface of psychiatric nosology and family systems assessment is discussed. Methods of diagnosing and assessing dysfunctional family systems are presented and training in individual psychiatric nosology is discussed, with particular attention given to family systems dysfunction as an etiological factor in the development of individual psychopathology. Learning techniques are discussed including lecture, discussion, case presentations, readings, and testing methods.     

Order effects in belief updating with consistent and inconsistent evidence

The current study tests for the presence of differential order effects in evaluation tasks with consistent and inconsistent evidence as predicted by the Hogarth and Einhorn (1992) belief-adjustment model. The results, based on both between-subjects and within-subjects experiments, demonstrate that there were significant recency effects with inconsistent evidence as predicted, larger recency effects when the inconsistent evidence was farther apart in subjective value as predicted, and significant recency effects even when subjects were given training designed to both help them understand the task as completely as possible and to be better able to assess the pieces of evidence. By including a within-subjects design, we were able to demonstrate that the difference in subjective value between two pieces of evidence is the primary factor influencing the magnitude of the recency effect, regardless of whether the evidence is consistent or inconsistent. This latter finding is unique and contrary to previous research and theory.