Causation,randomness, and pseudo-randomness in John Venn's logic of chance

In 1866, the young John Venn published The Logic of Chance, motivated largely by the desire to correct what he saw as deep fallacies in the reasoning of historical determinists such as Henry Buckle and in the optimistic heralding of a true social science by Adolphe Quetelet. Venn accepted the inevitable determinism implied by the physical sciences, but denied that the stable social statistics cited by Buckle and Quetelet implied a similar determinism in human actions. Venn maintained that probability statements were intelligible solely as projections of the ultimate frequency of an outcome in an unlimited series of trials and therefore led to no inferences about free will. An issue here was Venn's claim that although the aggregate probability may be stable, the individual events were completely irregular and, in fact, displayed randomness. Venn's concept of randomness was really apparent, or pseudo-, randomness, which could be totally determined. Ironically, Venn's frequentist position was very useful to the growing field of statistics, which could develop correlations and predictive models empirically without having to address implications for personal freedom or fatalism.     

When the party for some becomes a problem for others: the effect of perceived secondhand consequences of drinking behavior on drinking norms

The authors examined the influence of fraternity men's expectancies regarding secondhand consequences of excessive drinking behavior on normative standards regarding alcohol use and consumption levels. Participants were 381 men from 26 chapters of 2 national fraternities. One organization participated in a brief intervention involving discussion of secondhand consequences of excessive drinking. Immediate influence of the intervention on perceived secondhand consequences of alcohol use was assessed using a posttest-only, randomized groups design. Results supported a hypothesized measurement model with 1 overall secondhand consequence expectancy construct and 4 subfactors: (a) Noise Disruptive of Sleep and Study, (b) Violence, (c) Sexual Assault, and (d) Property Damage. Cross-sectional analysis at the chapter and individual levels demonstrated that secondhand expectancies had an indirect effect on alcohol consumption, mediated by personal consumption standards for limiting alcohol consumption. The intervention had an effect on secondhand expectancies. Findings suggest that interventions with intact groups can increase secondhand expectancies regarding excessive drinking and may lead to a reduction in excessive alcohol consumption.     

Youth with Oppositional Defiant Disorder at Entry into Home-Based Treatment,Foster Care,and Residential Treatment

We explored and compared rates of youth diagnosed with oppositional defiant disorder (ODD) at entry into three broad program types, home-based care, foster care, and residential care. We also explored factors other than an ODD diagnosis that could be associated with program placement, and compared the presence of these factors in youth with and without an ODD diagnosis. Analyses were conducted using data from an ongoing, private-agency led, outcome measurement project. Programs were grouped into low (home-based), moderate (foster), or high (residential) categories, based upon levels of supervision and structure provided. A sample of 9,564 youth admitted into care between years 2005 and 2007 was used. Results suggested the following rates of ODD: 14.2 % overall; 7.9 % for low level programs; 5.3 % for moderate level programs; 21.1 % for high level programs. Rates were significantly different by program level (p ≤ 0.001). Sixty of 65 additional risk factors were also significantly associated with placement by level of program. No risk factors were unique to youth with ODD. Of the significant factors for youth with ODD, 4 were particularly strong: Classification as a child in need of services (CHINS), history of neglect, verbal aggression, and truancy. Youth classified as CHINS and with substantiated or suspected neglect were more likely placed into a moderate level program. Youth with verbal aggression or truancy were more likely placed into a high level program. Results suggested many factors are considered at program entry. Given the potential for poor prognosis and social costs of ODD, results support an individualized approach to placement determinations, with increased attention to symptoms of ODD and associated features at program entry.     

MMPI-A in the inpatient assessment of adolescents with eating disorders.

The MMPI-A (Butcher et al., 1992), like the older MMPI (Hathaway & McKinley, 1983), distinguishes between anorexia and bulimia. In this study, 245 adolescent girls diagnosed with anorexia, bulimia, or eating disorder not otherwise specified completed the MMPI-A. Multivariate analyses revealed significant differences between anorexia and bulimia on the MMPI-A's validity, clinical, content, and supplementary scales, particularly suggesting multiple impulse control problems among bulimic patients. However, profiles were also more homogeneous across eating disorder groups than in studies using the older MMPI, with high points involving some combination of Scales 1, 2, 3, and 0 for two thirds of the patients in this study. Implications are considered for understanding the common and differential psychopathology of eating disorders.     

Homelessness in the United States. An ecological perspective.

This article presents an ecological perspective on homelessness that emphasizes the context in which homeless people live and the complex interactions between personal, social, economic, and service system resources that affect their well-being. The ecological perspective encourages researchers and program developers to assess the problems of homelessness at multiple levels of analysis, to view homelessness as a result of contextual factors that interact with individual and family vulnerabilities, and to assess carefully the social contexts in which researchers and program developers operate. Four ecological principles are described as a heuristic for research, intervention, and policy development. The implications of an ecological perspective for psychologists who wish to get involved in dealing with homelessness are discussed.