Ambiguity attitudes in qualitative contexts: The role of prior beliefs

Most studies of ambiguity aversion rely on experimental paradigms involving monetary bets. Thus, the extent to which ambiguity aversion occurs outside of such contexts is much less understood, particularly when the situation cannot easily be reduced to numerical terms. The present work seeks to understand whether people prefer to avoid ambiguous decisions in a variety of different qualitative domains (e.g., work, family, love, friendship, exercise, study, and health), and, if so, to determine the role played by prior beliefs in those domains. Across three studies, we presented participants with 24 vignettes and measured the degree to which they preferred risk to ambiguity in each. We also asked them for their prior probability estimates about the likely outcomes in the ambiguous events. Ambiguity aversion was observed in the vast majority of vignettes, but at different magnitudes. It was predicted by whether the vignette involved gain or loss as well as by people's prior beliefs; however, the heterogeneity between people meant that the role of prior beliefs was only evident in an individual-level analysis (i.e., not at the group level). Our results suggest that the desire to avoid ambiguity occurs in a wide variety of qualitative contexts but to different degrees for different people and may be partially driven by unfavorable prior estimates of the likely outcomes of the ambiguous events.     

Limits on the applicability of signal detection theories

Two auditory signals were presented in random sequences in which the more intense signal came on.2, .5, or.8a/the trials. Each trial began with an intermediate tone which was identified in the instructions as either the standard for comparison or simply as a warning tone. Half the Os were instructed to discriminate whether the signal was “louder” or “softer” than the standard, the other half to recognize which signal had been presented. For both discrimination and recognition tasks, the total proportion of ldlouder” judgments was independent of the presentation probabilities, accuracy for each signal varying inversely with its probability of presentation. These results suggest strict limitations on the response optimization posited by theories of signal detection.     

Aspirations and Expectations of Physically Impaired High School Seniors

Physically disabled and non-disabled high school seniors' educational and vocational aspiration-expectation discrepancies were compared. No significant differences were found when the two groups were matched for cumulative GPA and level of father's occupation. GPA's and father's job levels of disabled students were significantly lower than those of the non-disabled. When not matched, disabled students' vocational aspiration-expectation discrepancies were significantly higher than those of the non-disabled. Higher aspiration than expectation for the highest vocational and educational levels, professional training, and employment were the major sources of differences expressed by seniors.     

Interference with memory for lifted weight

An adaptation-level model for memory was tested by interpolating different weights between the standard and comparison weights. The results suggest that the model should be modified to account for the general tendency to use alternative categories of judgment with equal frequency. In terms of the modified model, memory for the standard shifts toward the value of the interfering stimulus, the magnitude of shift being proportional to the difference between the interfering stimulus and the value the memory would otherwise have had.     

Organizational change: A strategy for successful implementation

This paper examines the major problems and issues in implementing planned organizational change. It highlights the current debates in the literature on change and itemizes the most important factors which need to be considered by these responsible for implementing change. However, in addition the paper argues that while this provides an initial direction in attempting to bring about organizational change there are, nevertheless, limitations in the literature. The paper overcomes these by developing a broader eight steps model based on case study examples which should provide those responsible for change with a realistic framework of implementation.