Source reliability and the conjunction fallacy

Information generally comes from less than fully reliable sources. Rationality, it seems, requires that one take source reliability into account when reasoning on the basis of such information. Recently, Bovens and Hartmann (2003) proposed an account of the conjunction fallacy based on this idea. They show that, when statements in conjunction fallacy scenarios are perceived as coming from such sources, probability theory prescribes that the "fallacy" be committed in certain situations. Here, the empirical validity of their model was assessed. The model predicts that statements added to standard conjunction problems will change the incidence of the fallacy. It also predicts that statements from reliable sources should yield an increase in fallacy rates (relative to unreliable sources). Neither the former (Experiment 1) nor the latter prediction (Experiment 3) was confirmed, although Experiment 2 showed that people can derive source reliability estimates from the likelihood of statements in a manner consistent with the tested model. In line with the experimental results, model fits and sensitivity analyses also provided very little evidence in favor of the model. This suggests that Bovens and Hartmann's present model fails to explain fully people's judgements in standard conjunction fallacy tasks.     

Psychosoziale Versorgung von Krebspatienten

Objectives

The aim of this study was to determine rates of psychooncological care for cancer inpatients and outpatients under routine conditions in a large University hospital. The percentage of patients who received care was analyzed and compared with self-rated and expert rated supportive care needs.

Methods

The percentage of inpatients who received psychooncological care was calculated by comparing the number of cancer patients treated at the hospital as documented by the local tumor registry (n=1,979) with the number of patients treated by a psychooncologist in that hospital as documented by the hospital??s psychooncological consultation liaison service. The percentage of outpatients who received psychooncological care was calculated by comparing the number of incident cancer cases as documented by the local tumor registry (n=5,886) with the number of patients who received at least one consultation at the local tumor counseling centre. Supportive care needs were estimated by analyzing data of a prospective patient survey in the same hospital (n=1,803) using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale and single items to determine social burden and the wish for emotional support.

Results

The results showed that 11% of inpatients and outpatients (n=234 and n=638, respectively) received psychooncological care. Social care needs were prevalent in 37% and psychological care needs in 52% of the patients during the stay in hospital and in 42% (social and psychological) 6 months later. Of the patients 41% expressed the need to see a social worker and 29% to see a psychologist. Large differences were found between patients with different tumor entities.

Conclusion

Psychooncological care delivered to cancer patients under routine conditions was below the actual rate required as estimated by screening instruments and as expressed by the patients.     

The effect of alterations in consciousness on quality of life (QoL) in epilepsy: searching for evidence

The impact of epilepsy on quality of life (QoL) is well-documented. The ability of epileptic seizures to alter the conscious states of patients is also well established. Although there is much research on the QoL of people with epilepsy, few researchers have looked specifically at the effect of sudden, unanticipated alterations of consciousness on QoL. This lack of systematic studies of consciousness alterations and QoL in epilepsy limits our ability to shed light on this interrelation. In this article, with these limitations in mind, we focus on studies of newer AEDs. We review the evidence as to whether a significant reduction (typically more than 50%) in seizures that induce alterations of consciousness, as a result of switching to one of the newer AEDs, leads to improvements in QoL. We draw on this literature to speculate on the relationship between ictal consciousness alterations and poor QoL in epilepsy, to identify contributory and confounding factors and to highlight implications for future research. We suggest that an understanding of how factors associated with consciousness impairment affect QoL could help the treatment and management of these patients.     

On Devitt’s Defence of Realism

In this paper I question the view that realism must delineate the basic ontological furniture of the world rather than giving arguments in semantic or epistemic terms for the existence of a mind-independent world. I call this view of stating and defending realism the Ontological Defence of Realism (or ODR) and take Devitt’s account of realism as a paradigmatic case of ODR. I argue that ODR cannot block ‘verificationist antirealism’ because the specific (physical) nature of what exists is not enough to secure the mind-independence of what exists and, additionally, every element purported to achieve this, it compromises seriously the idea that realism is primarily an ontological issue. I also stress that ODR is in tension with a plausible realist insight namely the priority of the world over our theorizing. Because of this tension ODR weakens realism in several domains with no good reason. Specifically, I argue that in these domains ODR faces a dilemma: either to reject realism or to take realism to be dependent on a reductive account violating the realist insight. My point is that we should keep realism and ontology distinct and that compliance with the realist insight initiates a better strategy for the defence of realism. I address three possible objections thereby further clarifying my point. I conclude by presenting my view about the relation between ontology and realism.     

Illusory correlations revisited: the role of pseudocontingencies and working-memory capacity

Three experiments investigate illusory correlations in a feedback learning paradigm. Diverging from a standard paradigm, in which stimuli consist of joint observations of group-behaviour pairs, participants were asked to guess the group reference of positive and negative stimulus behaviours. They only knew that one group was larger than the other, and the stimulus series soon revealed that positive (negative) behaviours appeared more frequently in the stimulus series than negative (positive) behaviours. Regardless of whether feedback of the actual group reference was provided or not, the predominant valence was more strongly associated with the large than the small group. This illusory-correlation effect was evident in memory-based measures at the end of the stimulus series as well as in the online predictions during stimulus presentation. The strength of illusory correlations increased with decreasing working-memory capacity, operationalized either by an interpersonal differences measure or a cognitive-load manipulation. The occurrence of illusory correlations in the absence of joint observations about group-valence pairs (in the no-feedback condition and in the early phase of the online prediction task) can be explained as a reflection of pseudocontingency inferences.     

Callings and work engagement: moderated mediation model of work meaningfulness, occupational identity, and occupational self-efficacy

Scholarly interest in callings is growing, but researchers' understanding of how and when callings relate to career outcomes is incomplete. The present study investigated the possibility that the relationship of calling to work engagement is mediated by work meaningfulness, occupational identity, and occupational self-efficacy--and that this mediation depends on the degree of perceived person-job fit. I examined a highly educated sample of German employees (N = 529) in diverse occupations and found support for 2 of the 3 hypothesized mediators-work meaningfulness and occupational identity--after controlling for the relation of core self-evaluations to work engagement. Contrary to expectations, the mediated relations of callings to work engagement were not conditional upon the degree of person--job fit. The findings are considered in terms of the pathways through which callings may relate to work engagement and other career development outcomes.     

Together, slowly but surely: the role of social interaction and feedback on the build-up of benefit in collective decision-making

That objective reference is necessary for formation of reliable beliefs about the external world is almost axiomatic. However, Condorcet (1785) suggested that purely subjective information--if shared and combined via social interaction--is enough for accurate understanding of the external world. We asked if social interaction and objective reference contribute differently to the formation and build-up of collective perceptual beliefs. In three experiments, dyads made individual and collective perceptual decisions in a two-interval, forced-choice, visual search task. In Experiment 1, participants negotiated their collective decisions with each other verbally and received feedback about accuracy at the end of each trial. In Experiment 2, feedback was not given. In Experiment 3, communication was not allowed but feedback was provided. Social interaction (Experiments 1 and 2 vs. 3) resulted in a significant collective benefit in perceptual decisions. When feedback was not available a collective benefit was not initially obtained but emerged through practice to the extent that in the second half of the experiments, collective benefits obtained with (Experiment 1) and without (Experiment 2) feedback were robust and statistically indistinguishable. Taken together, this work demonstrates that social interaction was necessary for build-up of reliable collaborative benefit, whereas objective reference only accelerated the process but--given enough opportunity for practice--was not necessary for building up successful cooperation.     

A prototypicality validation of the Comprehensive Assessment of Psychopathic Personality model (CAPP)

Cooke and colleagues recently developed the lexically based model of psychopathy named the Comprehensive Assessment of Psychopathic Personality (CAPP, Cooke, Hart, Logan, & Michie, 2004). The current study was the first to evaluate aspects of the validity of a translated version of the CAPP model, which comprises 33 symptoms from six domains of personality functioning. Prototypicality ratings from 796 Norwegian community residents, forensic mental health professionals, and corrections professionals were obtained. Most CAPP symptoms were evaluated as highly prototypical of psychopathy by all three groups. Symptoms from the Self, Dominance, and Attachment domains were perceived as more prototypical than those from the Behavioral domain. Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) indicated that two CAPP domains were unidimensional whereas evidence of unidimensionality was somewhat weaker for the other domains, but improved substantially after removal of problematic symptoms. Overall, the findings support the content validity of the CAPP model. This may have relevance to the current considerations regarding reformulation of the criteria for Antisocial Personality Disorder in DSM-V.     

Psychoedukation bei Personen mit erh?htem Psychoserisiko

Background

So far only few studies are available which have evaluated the effectiveness of psychoeducation for individuals at risk of psychosis in the early initial prodromal state (EIPS) whereas the benefit of psychoeducation in psychotic patients has been repeatedly confirmed. Thus the aim of this study was to investigate the effect of psychoeducation in individuals with increased risk of psychosis in the EIPS.

Method

A total of 128 help-seeking outpatients in the EIPS participated in a randomized controlled multicentre trial of 12 months of either psychoeducation as part of an integrated psychological intervention (IPI) or supportive counseling (SC). The time to transition to psychosis at 12-month and 24-month follow-up as well as the social adjustment at baseline, time of transition or post-treatment by means of the social adjustment scale (SAS?II) were assessed.

Results

The IPI was superior to SC in preventing progression to psychosis at 12-month (3.2% versus 16.9%, p?=0.008) and 24-month follow-up (6.3% versus 20.0%, p?=0.019). Both treatments resulted in significant pre-post improvements in SAS?II with no significant differences between the two groups.

Conclusions

Psychoeducation as part of an integrated intervention is effective for preventing the onset of psychosis over a 24-month time period in people in an EIPS. Moreover patients at risk of developing first episode psychosis seem to benefit from a specific psychoeducational intervention in the context of other treatments as well as from SC.     

Migranten in sozial schwachen Stadtteilen von Berlin

Background

The aim of the present study was to compare psychological distress and substance use between migrant and non-migrant populations in a socially deprived area of Berlin.

Methods

A population-based random sample stratified for age (18?C57?years) and gender (50% female) was retrieved from the registration office. A total of 143 persons were included in the study. The participation rate was 48.5% when contact was established. Psychological distress was assessed using the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-28) with its four subscales, somatic symptoms, anxiety/insomnia, social dysfunction and severe depression. Substance use was quantified using the Alcohol Use Identification Disorder Test (AUDIT) and the Fagerstr?m Test for Nicotine Dependence (FTND).

Results

Of the study population 51.3% were first or second generation migrants and lived more often in single households. Migrants had lower educational levels and lower employment rates. The mean scores of migrants and non-migrants did not differ on any of the subscales somatic symptoms, anxiety/depression, social dysfunction or severe depression of the GHQ-28. Non-migrants showed significantly higher risks regarding alcohol use.

Discussion

The present study did not reveal any differences regarding symptom profiles in the spectrum of anxiety and depression between non-migrants and migrants who lived in a socially deprived area. Migrants may compensate higher social risk profiles with lower risks regarding alcohol use. Larger samples have to inform on possible differences regarding smoking and other substances.