Natural sampling and base-rate neglect

Using an analogue of the lawyer-and-engineer item (Kahneman & Tversky, 1973), we compared conditions in which base rates were either presented as percentages (A), or frequencies (B), to conditions in which the natural sampling process was described additionally (C) or was directly experienced (D). We expected the likelihood of base-rate utilization to increase as the presentation approaches the process of natural sampling. Accordingly, results showed that the contingency of judgments on base rates systematically increased across conditions A to D. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Perceptions of the Targets and Sources of COVID-19 Threat are Structured by Group Memberships and Responses are Influenced by Identification with Humankind

The purpose of this study was to investigate which social groups are perceived as a threat target and which are perceived as a threat source during the COVID-19 outbreak. In a German sample (N = 1454) we examined perceptions of social groups ranging from those that are psychologically close and smaller (family, friends, neighbors) to those that are more distal and larger (people living in Germany, humankind). We hypothesized that psychologically closer groups would be perceived as less affected by COVID-19 as well as less threatening than more psychologically distal groups. Based on social identity theorizing, we also hypothesized that stronger identification with humankind would change these patterns. Furthermore, we explored how these threat perceptions relate to adherence to COVID-19 health guidelines. In line with our hypotheses, latent random-slope modelling revealed that psychologically distal and larger groups were perceived as more affected by COVID-19 and as more threatening than psychologically closer and smaller groups. Including identification with humankind as a predictor into the threat target model resulted in a steeper increase in threat target perception patterns, whereas identification with humankind did not predict differences in threat source perceptions. Additionally, an increase in threat source perceptions across social groups was associated with more adherence to health guidelines, whereas an increase in threat target perceptions was not. We fully replicated these findings in a subgroup from the original sample (N = 989) four weeks later. We argue that societal recovery from this and other crises will be supported by an inclusive approach informed by a sense of our common identity as human beings.     

Ethnicity and social mobility: The case of Turks in Germany

This article uses the recent upward mobility processes of parts of the second-generation labour immigrants in Germany as an opportunity to investigate the interrelation of ethnicity and social mobility. Exploring this interrelation is important because migration research has so far either overlooked it or one-sidedly reduced it to the problem of an ethnic elite that cuts itself off from the majority of society. The widespread assumption that the social utility value of ethnicity, automatically declines during the upward mobility process needs to be questioned. Analysing the mobility strategies of educationally successful Turkish climbers shows exemplarity that ethnicity can indeed be a useful social resource in the mobility process. On the basis of first empirical explorations it can even be argued that in Germany a heterogeneous potential of future ethnic elites is currently emerging.     

EXPERIENTIAL STRUCTURALISM AND NEO-PIAGETIAN THEORIES: TOWARD AN INTEGRATED MODEL

Experiential structuralism is a new theory of cognitive organization and growth. It postulates that the cognitive system is organized into six autonomous capacity spheres: the quantitative-relational, the qualitative-analytic, the imaginal-spatial, the causal-experimental, the verbal-propositional, and the metacognitive-reflecting. These capacities were called experiential because they are experimentally documented, they reflect the organization of the persons' experience and the - subjective - experience the persons have about this organization. Thus it was proposed that a set of specific cognitive abilities may be integrated into a general capacity under the guidance of four principles. Namely, the principles of (1) domain specificity, (2) formal-procedural specificity, (3) symbolic bias, and (4) subjective distinctness of capacities. It was argued that this theory resolves some of the problems related to the competence-performance dispute better than the other neo-Piagetian theories. It seems to succeed in this regard because it postulates mechanisms directly linking performance variations with systematic variations in the organization of the cognitive system. However, the neo-Piagetian theories, though they did not define capacities, did propose notions able to causally explain the construction of autonomous capacities. These notions were integrated into a common model able to explain the generation of capacities. Overall, then, the present article attempts to integrate traditional differential and cognitive-developmental psychology into a common theory.     

THE ADOLESCENT'S CONSTRUCTION OF PROCEDURAL JUSTICE AS A FUNCTION OF AGE,FORMAL THOUGHT AND SEX*

The adolescent's understanding of procedural justice and its possible relationships with age, formal thought and sex were investigated. Based on social cognition literature, four predictions were tested: (1) juridical understanding develops along a number of levels; (2) it is fully, partially, or not dependent on formal thought; (3) its dependence, if any, is limited to some of the abilities composing formal thought, i.e., the experimental abilities; (4) no sex differences exist. A battery of formal tasks and a questionnaire tapping juridical understanding were addressed to 120 adolescents, equally sampled from grades 8, 10, and 12, in order to test these predictions. Qualitative analysis showed the understanding of justice developed on four levels: naive realism, integrated realism, inquisitive thinking, intersystemic thinking. ANOVA applied on justice scores and the regression of justice on the formal scores validated predictions 2(b), 3, and 4. The kind of formal and postformal thought contributions to social cognition and the relationships among various social cognition domains were discussed.     

Psychophysical features of the transition from pure heat perception to heat pain perception

The psychophysical features of the transition from the pure heat to the heat pain range were studied in 25 healthy subjects (mean age 28.8 years). Thirty short heat stimuli from ?1.6° C to + 1.6° C relative to the pain threshold were applied to the thenar of the left hand with an apparatus containing a Peltier thermode (nine different temperatures at 0.4°C intervals). The subjects rated the sensation intensity on a visual analogue scale. The resulting stimulus/sensation intensity relations could be explained equally well (same goodness of fit) by a model with a power function (PF) and by a model with two linear regression lines (TLR), one for stimulus intensities below and one for those above the pain threshold and intersecting at the pain threshold. The slopes of the TLR model were significantly larger above the pain threshold than below it. The PF model produced exponents between 1.8 and 1.9. We conclude that to describe the transition area, it is sufficient to use simple linear models for both the pure heat and the heat pain ranges.     

The Importance of Behavioural and Situational Characteristics for Entrepreneurial Success: An International Rating Study

A judgemental analysis has been executed of the job of entrepreneur in terms of the required behavioural, or ‘human’, attributes and in terms of the relevance of ‘situational’ attributes for entrepreneurial success. Ratings were given by 235 consultants and starting entrepreneurs from five European countries. By means of generalizability analysis it was investigated whether ratings generalized across countries: Nationality barely had an influence on the ratings. Next, it was questioned whether the type of judge, i.e. consultants or starting entrepreneurs, made a difference. No difference was found for the situational attributes. However, the behavioural attributes as a whole were judged to be more important by starters than by consultants. In general, it was not so much the type or nationality of the judge, as individual differences between judges that had an effect on the ratings. Overall, consensus was higher among consultants than among starting entrepreneurs, and higher on the importance of the situational than of the behavioural attributes. The three situational attributes judged as most important were: Number of Clients, Type of Product, and Competition. The three most important behavioural attributes were judged to be Market Orientedness, Perseverance, and Independence (consultants), and Perseverence, Independence, and Financial Control (starters).