Cognitive models of risky choice: parameter stability and predictive accuracy of prospect theory

In the behavioral sciences, a popular approach to describe and predict behavior is cognitive modeling with adjustable parameters (i.e., which can be fitted to data). Modeling with adjustable parameters allows, among other things, measuring differences between people. At the same time, parameter estimation also bears the risk of overfitting. Are individual differences as measured by model parameters stable enough to improve the ability to predict behavior as compared to modeling without adjustable parameters? We examined this issue in cumulative prospect theory (CPT), arguably the most widely used framework to model decisions under risk. Specifically, we examined (a) the temporal stability of CPT’s parameters; and (b) how well different implementations of CPT, varying in the number of adjustable parameters, predict individual choice relative to models with no adjustable parameters (such as CPT with fixed parameters, expected value theory, and various heuristics). We presented participants with risky choice problems and fitted CPT to each individual’s choices in two separate sessions (which were 1 week apart). All parameters were correlated across time, in particular when using a simple implementation of CPT. CPT allowing for individual variability in parameter values predicted individual choice better than CPT with fixed parameters, expected value theory, and the heuristics. CPT’s parameters thus seem to pick up stable individual differences that need to be considered when predicting risky choice.     

System consolidation of memory during sleep

Over the past two decades, research has accumulated compelling evidence that sleep supports the formation of long-term memory. The standard two-stage memory model that has been originally elaborated for declarative memory assumes that new memories are transiently encoded into a temporary store (represented by the hippocampus in the declarative memory system) before they are gradually transferred into a long-term store (mainly represented by the neocortex), or are forgotten. Based on this model, we propose that sleep, as an offline mode of brain processing, serves the ‘active system consolidation’ of memory, i.e. the process in which newly encoded memory representations become redistributed to other neuron networks serving as long-term store. System consolidation takes place during slow-wave sleep (SWS) rather than rapid eye movement (REM) sleep. The concept of active system consolidation during sleep implicates that (a) memories are reactivated during sleep to be consolidated, (b) the consolidation process during sleep is selective inasmuch as it does not enhance every memory, and (c) memories, when transferred to the long-term store undergo qualitative changes. Experimental evidence for these three central implications is provided: It has been shown that reactivation of memories during SWS plays a causal role for consolidation, that sleep and specifically SWS consolidates preferentially memories with relevance for future plans, and that sleep produces qualitative changes in memory representations such that the extraction of explicit and conscious knowledge from implicitly learned materials is facilitated.     

The career resources model: an integrative framework for career counsellors

Changes in the nature of work and organisations have led to an increased need for self-directed career management (SDCM). However, there is no consensus in the literature of what constitutes SDCM and many related concepts have been proposed. Integrating previous research across different conceptualisations of SDCM, the article proposes four critical career resources which are essential for career development in the modern context: human capital resources, social resources, psychological resources and identity resources. Implications of this framework for counselling practice are presented.     

Threat and selective exposure: the moderating role of threat and decision context on confirmatory information search after decisions

Previous studies on the impact of perceived threat on confirmatory information search (selective exposure) in the context of decision making have yielded mixed results. Some studies have suggested that confirmatory information search is reduced, yet others have found contradictory effects. The present series of 5 studies consistently found that the crucial moderator for these inconsistent findings was whether the induced threat was contextually related to the subsequent decision and information search tasks. Contextual incongruence (e.g., an induction of terrorist threat followed by an economic decision case) results in reduced levels of confirmatory information search, whereas a congruent threat (e.g., an induction of terrorist threat followed by a decision case on terrorism) results in increased levels of confirmatory information search. Analyses of the underlying psychological processes revealed that decision-unrelated threat inductions increase decision makers' experienced decision uncertainty, thus reducing confirmatory information search.     

The bystander-effect: a meta-analytic review on bystander intervention in dangerous and non-dangerous emergencies

Research on bystander intervention has produced a great number of studies showing that the presence of other people in a critical situation reduces the likelihood that an individual will help. As the last systematic review of bystander research was published in 1981 and was not a quantitative meta-analysis in the modern sense, the present meta-analysis updates the knowledge about the bystander effect and its potential moderators. The present work (a) integrates the bystander literature from the 1960s to 2010, (b) provides statistical tests of potential moderators, and (c) presents new theoretical and empirical perspectives on the novel finding of non-negative bystander effects in certain dangerous emergencies as well as situations where bystanders are a source of physical support for the potentially intervening individual. In a fixed effects model, data from over 7,700 participants and 105 independent effect sizes revealed an overall effect size of g = -0.35. The bystander effect was attenuated when situations were perceived as dangerous (compared with non-dangerous), perpetrators were present (compared with non-present), and the costs of intervention were physical (compared with non-physical). This pattern of findings is consistent with the arousal-cost-reward model, which proposes that dangerous emergencies are recognized faster and more clearly as real emergencies, thereby inducing higher levels of arousal and hence more helping. We also identified situations where bystanders provide welcome physical support for the potentially intervening individual and thus reduce the bystander effect, such as when the bystanders were exclusively male, when they were naive rather than passive confederates or only virtually present persons, and when the bystanders were not strangers.     

Third Conference of the GWP (2019)

Journal for General Philosophy of Science -     

Feeling the green? Value orientation as a moderator of emotional response to green electricity

Framing effects on emotional responses in a green electricity choice are investigated in a survey of a random sample of 655 Swedish residents. The results show that overall more positive and less negative emotions are experienced for a promotion frame (“choosing green electricity and paying more”) than for a prevention frame (“not choosing green electricity and paying less”). Value orientation is shown to moderate the framing effect in that for the promotion frame, individuals with a self‐transcendence value orientation show the most positive and least negative emotion, whereas for the prevention frame, individuals with a self‐enhancement value orientation show the most positive and least negative emotion. Emotional responses are further shown to mediate the relationship between value orientation and intention to purchase eco‐labeled electricity.     

Reappraisal inventiveness: impact of appropriate brain activation during efforts to generate alternative appraisals on the perception of chronic stress in women*

Background and objectives: Previous research indicated that more left-lateralized prefrontal activation during cognitive reappraisal efforts was linked to a greater capacity for generating reappraisals, which is a prerequisite for the effective implementation of cognitive reappraisal in everyday life. The present study examined whether the supposedly appropriate brain activation is relevant in terms of more distal outcomes, i.e., chronic stress perception.

Design and methods: Prefrontal EEG alpha asymmetry was recorded while female participants were generating reappraisals for stressful events and was correlated with their self-reported chronic stress levels in everyday life (n?=?80).

Results: Women showing less left-lateralized brain activity in the ventrolateral prefrontal cortex during cognitive reappraisal efforts reported experiencing more stress in their daily lives. This effect was independent of self-efficacy beliefs in managing negative emotions.

Conclusion: These findings underline the practical relevance of individual differences in appropriate brain activation during emotion regulation efforts and the assumedly related basic capacity for the generation of cognitive reappraisals to the feeling of being stressed. Implications include the selection of interventions for the improvement of coping with stress in women in whom the capability for appropriate brain activation during reappraisal efforts may be impaired, e.g., due to depression or old age.