Prediction of Entrepreneurial Success: The Development of a Rating Scale for Entrepreneurial Characteristics

Predicting entrepreneurial success is a complex task, which is performed more or less daily by consultants for small business firms. In this study, the development of an entrepreneurial rating scale designed to assist consultants in assessing the behavioural characteristics of starting entrepreneurs is reported. A model was formulated that incorporates two features of the prediction of entrepeneurial success: (a) entrepreneurial characteristics as well as aspects of the future job (present in the entrepreneurial plan) are appraised, (b) advising is part of the prediction issue, e.g. certain aspects of the entrepreneurial plan may be modified. The model is a variant of‘adaptive selection’, and is partly operationalized in the rating scale for entrepreneurial characteristics. Three studies were conducted with regard to the first feature: judgements on the relevance of situational and behavioural characteristics were obtained from several samples of consultants (N= 38, 23 and 48), and a sample of starting entrepreneurs (N= 61) was rated on behavioural characteristics. The findings indicate that consultants have a common opinion about the behavioural requirements for starting entrepreneurs and that some of these requirements covary with situational characteristics (i.e. general business features). Implications of these findings are discussed in relation to the possible design of a validation study.     

Boundaries for career success? How work–home integration and perceived supervisor expectation affect careers

The necessity to actively manage the work–home boundaries has drastically increased. We postulate that work–home integration may affect individuals' subjective career success via its positive effects on work goal attainment and exhaustion. Furthermore, we study perceived supervisor expectation for employee work–home integration as a boundary condition. Our three-wave online survey with 371 employees showed support for the two hypothesized moderated mediation effects. Work–home integration preference is indirectly related to subjective career success: (1) positively via home-to-work transitions and work goal attainment and (2) negatively via home-to-work transitions and exhaustion. Perceived supervisor expectation constrained work–home integration preference's direct effect on home-to-work transitions and indirect effects on subjective career success. Exploratory analysis revealed that exhaustion negatively affected all career success dimensions, whereas work goal attainment was only related to some. Our results indicate that supervisor expectation can override the effect of employee's work–home integration preference on home-to-work transitions which have a double-edged sword effect on subjective career success. Our study contributes to integrating the careers and work–life interface literature and incorporating contextual factors. Furthermore, with the exploration of differential effects on subjective career success, we advance our understanding of this outcome's nomological network.     

Social information facilitates learning about novel food sources in adult flower-visiting bats

Animal Cognition - Incorporating novel food sources into their diet is crucial for animals in changing environments. Although the utilization of novel food sources can be learned individually,...     

Responding to negative social identity: a taxonomy of identity management strategies

Taken from literature on social identity theory and social comparison theory, 12 strategies of identity management were identified as possible responses to negative social identity. A taxonomy with two orthogonal axes is proposed as theoretical organization of these diverse strategies. While the first axis considers responses as being either individual or collective, the second axis refers to the distinction between behaviours and cognitions. It is assumed that the German unification process implied a lower status position of East Germans relative to West Germans on relevant comparison dimensions, and that East Germans have to deal with this threat to their identity. Hence, data of an East German sample are used to empirically systematize identity management strategies, and, thus, to test the proposed taxonomy. Results support the expected four-factor solution only for those strategies taken from social identity theory, while the responses derived from social comparison research build a fifth factor. In addition, the empirical assignments of strategies to cells of the taxonomy are only partly in line with the expected pattern. The empirical findings suggest some clarification and modifications of the proposed response taxonomy. The most important refers to a re-interpretation of the taxonomy's first axis, which now differentiates between responses according to the specific changes of the comparison parameters they imply. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The relation of formal education to ethnic prejudice: Its reliability,validity and explanation

This paper examines three issues concerning the frequently documented negative correlation between formal education and ethnic prejudice, namely its reliability, its validity and the manner in which it is mediated. Reliability is demonstrated across three indices of ethnic attitudes in seven representative samples drawn from four European countries (West Germany, Netherlands, France, Great Britain; total N=3788). The hypothesis that this correlation reflects only the tendency of more highly educated respondents to give more socially desirable answers and not true attitude differences was inconsistent with the finding from the survey data that educational level also correlated negatively with responses to an index of subtle prejudice. Results from an experiment employing the bogus pipeline procedure similarly refute this hypothesis, indicating that significant education-related differences in expressed prejudice remain under conditions in which the tendency to give socially desirable responses is reduced. Finally, path analysis based on the survey data show that part but not all of the association between low education and ethnic prejudice is mediated by social psychological variables, particularly group relative deprivation, perceived belief incongruency, political conservatism, and acceptance of inter-ethnic contact.     

Towards end-to-end likelihood-free inference with convolutional neural networks

Complex simulator-based models with non-standard sampling distributions require sophisticated design choices for reliable approximate parameter inference. We introduce a fast, end-to-end approach for approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) based on fully convolutional neural networks. The method enables users of ABC to derive simultaneously the posterior mean and variance of multidimensional posterior distributions directly from raw simulated data. Once trained on simulated data, the convolutional neural network is able to map real data samples of variable size to the first two posterior moments of the relevant parameter's distributions. Thus, in contrast to other machine learning approaches to ABC, our approach allows us to generate reusable models that can be applied by different researchers employing the same model. We verify the utility of our method on two common statistical models (i.e., a multivariate normal distribution and a multiple regression scenario), for which the posterior parameter distributions can be derived analytically. We then apply our method to recover the parameters of the leaky competing accumulator (LCA) model and we reference our results to the current state-of-the-art technique, which is the probability density estimation (PDA). Results show that our method exhibits a lower approximation error compared with other machine learning approaches to ABC. It also performs similarly to PDA in recovering the parameters of the LCA model.     

Causation in terms of production

Philosophical Studies - In this paper, we analyse actual causation in terms of production. The latter concept is made precise by a strengthened Ramsey Test semantics of conditionals: $$A \gg C$$...