Why and when peer prediction is superior to self-prediction: the weight given to future aspiration versus past achievement

Peer predictions of future behavior and achievement are often more accurate than those furnished by the self. Although both self- and peer predictions correlate equally with future outcomes, peers tend to avoid the degree of overoptimism so often seen in self-predictions. In 3 studies, the authors tested whether this differential accuracy arises because people give more weight to past behavior when predicting others, but emphasize agentic information, in particular data about their aspiration level, when predicting the self. Studies 1 and 3 showed that the exact same participants rated past behavior more diagnostic of future performance when predicting another person but viewed aspiration-level data as more valuable when someone else was trying to predict them. In Studies 2 and 3 (predicting an upcoming exam score and performance in a lab task, respectively), participants gave greater weight in self-predictions to aspiration-level data than did a yoked peer, who instead gave greater weight to evidence of past achievement. This differential weighting explained why peer predictions tended to be less optimistic and, thus, more accurate. Discussion centers on strategies for predicting future behavior and why people may remain ignorant of their own incompetence despite feedback.     

Effects of a meaningful, a discriminative, and a meaningless stimulus on equivalence class formation

Thirty college students attempted to form three 3-node 5-member equivalence classes under the simultaneous protocol. After concurrent training of AB, BC, CD, and DE relations, all probes used to assess the emergence of symmetrical, transitive, and equivalence relations were presented for two test blocks. When the A-E stimuli were all abstract shapes, none of 10 participants formed classes. When the A, B, D, and E stimuli were abstract shapes and the C stimuli were meaningful pictures, 8 of 10 participants formed classes. This high yield may reflect the expansion of existing classes that consist of the associates of the meaningful stimuli, rather than the formation of the ABCDE classes, per se. When the A-E stimuli were abstract shapes and the C stimuli became S(D)s prior to class formation, 5 out of 10 participants formed classes. Thus, the discriminative functions served by the meaningful stimuli can account for some of the enhancement of class formation produced by the inclusion of a meaningful stimulus as a class member. A sorting task, which provided a secondary measure of class formation, indicated the formation of all three classes when the emergent relations probes indicated the same outcome. In contrast, the sorting test indicated "partial" class formation when the emergent relations test indicated no class formation. Finally, the effects of nodal distance on the relatedness of stimuli in the equivalence classes were not influenced by the functions served by the C stimuli in the equivalence classes.     

The effects of existential threat on reading comprehension of worldview affirming and disconfirming information

Terror management theory posits that cultural worldviews buffer people from thoughts and concerns about death. In support of this claim, numerous studies have shown that mortality salience (MS) increases an individual's motivation to uphold and defend important cultural worldviews. We hypothesized that the motivation to defend cultural worldviews following MS would also enhance people's ability to comprehend worldview affirming (vs. disconfirming) information. Three studies investigated this possibility. Study 1 showed that MS (vs. control) increased reading comprehension of a pro‐evolution essay among participants with a strongly evolutionist worldview, but decreased reading comprehension among participants with a strongly creationist worldview. With the use of a pro‐creation essay, Study 2 conceptually replicated these effects and demonstrated that the interactive effect of worldview and death anxiety on reading comprehension was mediated by defensive motivation. Study 3 replicated the results of Studies 1 and 2 among participants with a strongly evolutionist worldview, but only when the information in the essay was perceived as veridical. Discussion focused on the specific process through which MS affects reading comprehension of worldview relevant ideas. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Direct lexical control of eye movements in reading: evidence from a survival analysis of fixation durations

Participants' eye movements were monitored in an experiment that manipulated the frequency of target words (high vs. low) as well as their availability for parafoveal processing during fixations on the pre-target word (valid vs. invalid preview). The influence of the word-frequency by preview validity manipulation on the distributions of first fixation duration was examined by using ex-Gaussian fitting as well as a novel survival analysis technique which provided precise estimates of the timing of the first discernible influence of word frequency on first fixation duration. Using this technique, we found a significant influence of word frequency on fixation duration in normal reading (valid preview) as early as 145ms from the start of fixation. We also demonstrated an equally rapid non-lexical influence on first fixation duration as a function of initial landing position (location) on target words. The time-course of frequency effects, but not location effects was strongly influenced by preview validity, demonstrating the crucial role of parafoveal processing in enabling direct lexical control of reading fixation times. Implications for models of eye-movement control are discussed.     

Spatial judgments in the horizontal and vertical planes from different vantage points

Todorovi? (2008 Perception 37 106-125) reported that there are systematic errors in the perception of 3-D space when viewing 2-D linear perspective drawings depending on the observer's vantage point. Because these findings were restricted to the horizontal plane, the current study was designed to determine the nature of these errors in the vertical plane. Participants viewed an image containing multiple colonnades aligned on parallel converging lines receding to a vanishing point. They were asked to judge where, in the physical room, the next column should be placed. The results support Todorovi? in that systematic deviations in the spatial judgments depended on vantage point for both the horizontal and vertical planes. However, there are also marked differences between the two planes. While judgments in both planes failed to compensate adequately for the vantage-point shift, the vertical plane induced greater distortions of the stimulus image itself within each vantage point.     

Coarse-to-fine eye movement behavior during visual search

It has previously been argued that, during visual search, eye movement behavior is indicative of an underlying scanning “strategy” that starts on a global, or “coarse,” scale but then progressively focuses to a more local, or “fine,” scale. This conclusion is motivated by the finding that, as a trial progresses, fixation durations tend to increase and saccade amplitudes tend to decrease. In the present study, we replicate these effects but offer an alternative explanation for them—that they emerge from a few stochastic factors that control eye movement behavior. We report the results of a simulation supporting this hypothesis and discuss implications for future models of visual search.     

Jandu Yani U (for all families): Tailored Triple P Training and Support Promote Empowerment in Remote Aboriginal Communities

Journal of Child and Family Studies - To enhance the accessibility and acceptability of evidence-based parenting programs in Indigenous communities, there is a need to build a confident and skilled...     

Heterogeneity of treatment changes after psychodynamic therapy within a one year follow‐up: A replication study

Naturalistic psychotherapy effect studies commonly report effect sizes for the total sample. However, a previous study of SCL‐90 Global Severity Index (GSI) improvement in a large outpatient sample used a cluster analytic strategy and reported clinical relevant outcome trajectories that could be grouped into early within‐treatment improvement, late improvement in the follow‐up period, and deteriorating patients with slight improvement that was lost at follow‐up. We explore GSI outcome trajectories and clinical significant change in a sample of 320 patients at a public psychiatric outpatient psychodynamic group therapy unit, the majority with anxiety, personality, and mood disorders. The study revealed large discharge and follow‐up effect sizes but more than one third of the patients were without measurable improvement. The major clusters described above were confirmed, and revealed unique clinical and socio‐demographic characteristics. Late improvers, as compared with early improvers, were characterized by anxiety symptoms and lack of network support after controlling for GSI at admission. Similarly, deteriorating patients had longer duration of illness and less favourable social characteristics compared with the other two groups. Early improving patients were less likely to have participated in short‐term groups, and only one third participated in additional treatment compared with more than 69% of the other patients. Severe and socially affected psychiatric patients, and patients with anxiety and agoraphobic symptoms may be less optimally treated in short‐term time limited psychodynamic groups. There is an obvious need for diversity of treatment offers, better integration of psycho‐social treatment components, and long‐term open ended treatment.     

Trust and the value of overconfidence: a Bayesian perspective on social network communication

The paper presents and defends a Bayesian theory of trust in social networks. In the first part of the paper, we provide justifications for the basic assumptions behind the model, and we give reasons for thinking that the model has plausible consequences for certain kinds of communication. In the second part of the paper we investigate the phenomenon of overconfidence. Many psychological studies have found that people think they are more reliable than they actually are. Using a simulation environment that has been developed in order to make our model computationally tractable we show that in our model inquirers are indeed sometimes better off from an epistemic perspective overestimating the reliability of their own inquiries. We also show, by contrast, that people are rarely better off overestimating the reliability of others. On the basis of these observations we formulate a novel hypothesis about the value of overconfidence.