Not the same old hindsight bias: Outcome information distorts a broad range of retrospective judgments

The hindsight bias (e.g., Fischhoff, 1975) illustrates that outcome information can make people believe that they would have (or did) predict an outcome that they would not (or did not) actually predict. In two experiments, participants (N = 226) made a prediction immediately before receiving outcome information. Therefore, participants could not distort or misremember their predictions to make them align with the outcome information. In both experiments, participants distorted their reports of how certain they recalled having been in their prediction, how good of a basis they had for making the prediction, how long they took to make the prediction, and so forth. Experiment 2 showed that these effects were diminished when participants engaged in private thought about the upcoming questions prior to receiving outcome information, suggesting that the effect is not due to impression management concerns.     

Sexual victimization in relation to perceptions of risk: mediation, generalization, and temporal stability

There is evidence that personal experience with trauma is associated with increases in both personal and comparative risk perception. This study investigates this relation in terms of sexual victimization among women, focusing on three potential mediators: perceived control over sexual assault, perceived similarity to a typical sexual assault victim, and psychological distress. Mediational analyses were investigated using structural equation modeling. Although victimization experience was not related to comparative risk perception, it was associated with greater personal risk perception. This relation was mediated by perceived similarity to a typical sexual assault victim. Prospective analyses indicated that personal risk perception does change in response to sexual victimization but also indicated that heightened risk perception may be an accurate assessment of risk that actually precedes victimization experience. Implications for the meaning of perceived similarity and perceptions of risk for sexual assault victims are discussed.     

Identity and emergency intervention: how social group membership and inclusiveness of group boundaries shape helping behavior

Two experiments exploring the effects of social category membership on real-life helping behavior are reported. In Study 1, intergroup rivalries between soccer fans are used to examine the role of identity in emergency helping. An injured stranger wearing an in-group team shirt is more likely to be helped than when wearing a rival team shirt or an unbranded sports shirt. In Study 2, a more inclusive social categorization is made salient for potential helpers. Helping is extended to those who were previously identified as out-group members but not to those who do not display signs of group membership. Taken together, the studies show the importance of both shared identity between bystander and victim and the inclusiveness of salient identity for increasing the likelihood of emergency intervention.     

Human cognition and a pile of sand: a discussion on serial correlations and self-organized criticality

Recently, G. C. Van Orden, J. G. Holden, and M. T. Turvey (2003) proposed to abandon the conventional framework of cognitive psychology in favor of the framework of nonlinear dynamical systems theory. Van Orden et al. presented evidence that "purposive behavior originates in self-organized criticality" (p. 333). Here, the authors show that Van Orden et al.'s analyses do not test their hypotheses. Further, the authors argue that a confirmation of Van Orden et al.'s hypotheses would not have constituted firm evidence in support of their framework. Finally, the absence of a specific model for how self-organized criticality produces the observed behavior makes it very difficult to derive testable predictions. The authors conclude that the proposed paradigm shift is presently unwarranted.     

The collaborative assessment and management of suicidality versus treatment as usual: a retrospective study with suicidal outpatients

The Collaborative Assessment and Management of Suicidality (CAMS) is a novel clinical approach used to identify, assess, and manage suicidal outpatients (Jobes & Drozd, 2004). The results of a retrospective study evaluating the impact of CAMS versus treatment as usual (TAU) on suicidal outpatients are presented. Patients in the CAMS treatment group (n = 25) resolved their suicidality significantly more quickly than TAU patients (n = 30). CAMS was also significantly associated with decreased medical health care utilization in the 6 months after the start of suicide-related mental health treatment. These results provide promising preliminary support for the effectiveness of CAMS and a foundation for prospective research.     

Genetic Counseling for Fragile X Syndrome: Updated Recommendations of the National Society of Genetic Counselors

These recommendations describe the minimum standard criteria for genetic counseling and testing of individuals and families with fragile X syndrome, as well as carriers and potential carriers of a fragile X mutation. The original guidelines (published in 2000) have been revised, replacing a stratified pre- and full mutation model of fragile X syndrome with one based on a continuum of gene effects across the full spectrum of FMR1 CGG trinucleotide repeat expansion. This document reviews the molecular genetics of fragile X syndrome, clinical phenotype (including the spectrum of premature ovarian failure and fragile X-associated tremor-ataxia syndrome), indications for genetic testing and interpretation of results, risks of transmission, family planning options, psychosocial issues, and references for professional and patient resources. These recommendations are the opinions of a multicenter working group of genetic counselors with expertise in fragile X syndrome genetic counseling, and they are based on clinical experience, review of pertinent English language articles, and reports of expert committees. These recommendations should not be construed as dictating an exclusive course of management, nor does use of such recommendations guarantee a particular outcome. The professional judgment of a health care provider, familiar with the facts and circumstances of a specific case, will always supersede these recommendations.     

Race and information processing in criminal trials: does the defendant's race affect how the facts are evaluated?

Two studies examined whether a criminal defendant's race influences Whites' sensitivity to legally relevant information. In Study 1, prosecution case strength ratings and guilt likelihood ratings were more sensitive to the strength of the defendant's alibi when he was Black than when he was White, if the experimental task was designed to elicit low processing motivation. Under high motivation, participants were equally sensitive to alibi strength, regardless of defendant race. In Study 2, the alibi strength manipulation was replaced with a manipulation of the effectiveness of the district attorney's cross-examination. As predicted, defense case strength ratings were more sensitive to the strength of the prosecutor's cross-examination with a Black defendant than with a White defendant-under low motivation. Under high motivation, sensitivity did not depend on defendant race. These results suggest that a Black defendant can elicit greater sensitivity to legally relevant information than will a White defendant.