The relative influence of advice from human experts and statistical methods on forecast adjustments

Decision makers and forecasters often receive advice from different sources including human experts and statistical methods. This research examines, in the context of stock price forecasting, how the apparent source of the advice affects the attention that is paid to it when the mode of delivery of the advice is identical for both sources. In Study 1, two groups of participants were given the same advised point and interval forecasts. One group was told that these were the advice of a human expert and the other that they were generated by a statistical forecasting method. The participants were then asked to adjust forecasts they had previously made in light of this advice. While in both cases the advice led to improved point forecast accuracy and better calibration of the prediction intervals, the advice which apparently emanated from a statistical method was discounted much more severely. In Study 2, participants were provided with advice from two sources. When the participants were told that both sources were either human experts or both were statistical methods, the apparent statistical‐based advice had the same influence on the adjusted estimates as the advice that appeared to come from a human expert. However when the apparent sources of advice were different, much greater attention was paid to the advice that apparently came from a human expert. Theories of advice utilization are used to identify why the advice of a human expert is likely to be preferred to advice from a statistical method. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Genetic Gating of Human Fear Learning and Extinction: Possible Implications for Gene-Environment Interaction in Anxiety Disorder

ABSTRACT— Pavlovian fear conditioning is a widely used model of the acquisition and extinction of fear. Neural findings suggest that the amygdala is the core structure for fear acquisition, whereas prefrontal cortical areas are given pivotal roles in fear extinction. Forty-eight volunteers participated in a fear-conditioning experiment, which used fear potentiation of the startle reflex as the primary measure to investigate the effect of two genetic polymorphisms (5-HTTLPR and COMTval158met) on conditioning and extinction of fear. The 5-HTTLPR polymorphism, located in the serotonin transporter gene, is associated with amygdala reactivity and neuroticism, whereas the COMTval158met polymorphism, which is located in the gene coding for catechol-O-methyltransferase (COMT), a dopamine-degrading enzyme, affects prefrontal executive functions. Our results show that only carriers of the 5-HTTLPR s allele exhibited conditioned startle potentiation, whereas carriers of the COMT met/met genotype failed to extinguish conditioned fear. These results may have interesting implications for understanding gene-environment interactions in the development and treatment of anxiety disorders.     

Cultivating the Places of Knowledge

The discussion of universities anddemocracy has conventionally dealt first andforemost with the curriculum, or with thespirit of openness and tolerance whichcharacterises the scientific inquiry. In thisarticle I have added a discussion of thesituatedness of knowledge and knowledgeproduction, and, consequently, a discussion ofthe situated character of other roles of theuniversity, including the democratic role. Inthe light of the regress of political partiesand traditional popular movements – phenomenawhich seem to be true both as regardsmembership numbers and as regards level ofactivity – the role as a locally andregionally situated meeting place for avitalisation and defence of democracy seems apromising one for the contemporary university.The article has also emphasised the linksbetween culture, social capital (``the socialfabric') in the surrounding society, and theeconomic growth and welfare of the city andregion. With concepts such as Bildung (oreducation), civic competence (or civility), andculture, and I have tried to draw our attentionto the actual ``places of knowledge,' whoseimportance will certainly grow in the years tocome. The care, the cultivation, and thequalification of these places into supportinginfrastructures for cultural life, creativity,industry, and democracy should be seen as acoherent, holistic mission. It needsrecognition, and articulation, by all those whoare interested in the university as asignificant social factor: politicians,industry, the cultural sector, localcommunities, and, obviously, the academiccommunity itself.     

Recollective experience in odor recognition: Influences of adult age and familiarity

We examined recollective experience in odor memory as a function of age, intention to learn, and familiarity. Young and older adults studied a set of familiar and unfamiliar odors with incidental or intentional encoding instructions. At recognition, participants indicated whether their response was based on explicit recollection (remembering), a feeling of familiarity (knowing), or guessing. The results indicated no age-related differences in the distribution of experiential responses for unfamiliar odors. By contrast, for familiar odors the young demonstrated more explicit recollection than the older adults, who produced more know and guess responses. Intention to learn was unrelated to recollective experience. In addition, the observed age differences in remember responses for familiar odors were eliminated when odor naming was statistically controlled. This suggests that age-related deficits in activating specific odor knowledge (i.e., odor names) play an important role for age differences in recollective experience of olfactory information.     

SOME VIEWPOINTS ON WOMAN'S INNER SPACE

In this paper, illusion is examined as a prerequisite and necessary medium for the analysand's finding the genuine subjective reality of his own in the psycho-analytic interaction. Two kinds of illusion are discussed The first of them, transference illusion, is well-known, as is its understanding as a simultaneous existence of experiences stemming from different levels of reality. At its side, the author introduces the concept of developmental illusion, as an essential constituent of the analytic process. As contrasted to transference illusion, the wishes inherent in a developmental illusion have never become meaningfully represented in the analysand's mind. These interrupted developmental needs attaining shape and meaning, and thus the possibility to develop further in the analytic relationship, is dependent on the analyst's ability and ways to receive and meet the analysand's activated developmental illusion. The rôle of the analyst's ways to reach and convey his understanding is considered decisive in this process.     

Where's the impairment: An examination of factors that impact sustained attention following a stressor

This contribution examines the emotional engagement of men and women when reading narrative texts, aiming to see under which textual conditions men and women turn out to be different from or similar to each other in what they think and feel during reception. As part of an experimental mixed-methods study, male and female readers are asked to read either experience-type texts (focusing on inner experiences of characters) or action-type texts (focusing on actions as part of a suspenseful plot) and report their engagement on questionnaire scales and in written protocols. Results show that men and women differ in their engagement when reading action texts and in their emotional affinity to plots. They are highly similar when reading the experience texts, however, and in their affinity to characters. This study underlines that the emotional responses of males and females during reading are highly dependent on (con)textual cues.     

Parenting stress and external stressors as predictors of maternal ratings of child adjustment

This study sought to disentangle the effects of different kinds of stress on maternal ratings of child externalizing and internalizing problems, social inhibition, and social competence, with a primary focus on parenting stress. The relations were explored in a sample consisting of mothers of 436 children (M_age = 7 years) in Sweden. Half the sample had had early clinical contacts during infancy due to child regulation problems, and the rest were mothers without known such early contacts. Demographic factors, family stressors, and parenting stress were examined in stress – adjustment models. Family stressors were clinical contact during infancy, current child and parent health problems, recent negative life events, and insufficient social support. Parenting stress as a mediator of the effect of other stressors on rated child adjustment was tested as was social support as a moderator of the effect of parenting stress on adjustment. The results showed that a higher parenting stress level was associated with maternal ratings of more externalizing and internalizing behaviors, more social inhibition, and lower social competence. Other family stressors and background variables were also found to be of importance, mainly for externalizing and internalizing problems and to some extent for social competence. Social inhibition had a unique relation to parenting stress only. Parenting stress mediated effects of other stressors in twelve models, whereas social support had no moderating effect on the link between parenting stress and child adjustment. Thus, parenting stress seems to be an important overarching construct. Clinical implications are proposed.     

Social desirability in personality inventories: Symptoms,diagnosis and prescribed cure

An analysis of social desirability in personality assessment is presented. Starting with the symptoms, Study 1 showed that mean ratings of graded personality items are moderately to strongly linearly related to social desirability (Self Deception, Impression formation, and the first Principal Component), suggesting that item popularity may be a useful heuristic tool for identifying items which elicit socially desirable responding. We diagnose the cause of socially desirable responding as an interaction between the evaluative content of the item and enhancement motivation in the rater. Study 2 introduced a possible cure; evaluative neutralization of items. To test the feasibility of the method lay psychometricians (undergraduates) reformulated existing personality test items according to written instructions. The new items were indeed lower in social desirability while essentially retaining the five factor structure and reliability of the inventory. We conclude that although neutralization is no miracle cure, it is simple and has beneficial effects.     

Future Time Orientation and Relationships With the Opposite Sex

This study is an examination of future time orientation (FTO) and relationship satisfaction. Undergraduate students (N = 244) from Middle East Technical University were given a general FTO scale developed by T. Gjesme (1979) and a scale developed by this study's researcher to measure FTO in terms of romantic relationships. Participants were asked to rate their relationship satisfaction on a 9-point Likert-type scale. Although a general FTO was adaptive in terms of romantic relationships, a high concern for future commitment to a romantic relationship had a negative effect on reported relationship satisfaction. Research implications and suggestions for future studies are discussed.